jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 3, 2022 18:44:31 GMT
Using deprivation figures makes it possible to quantify this. Constituencies which are as you describe will have many residents in very deprived areas, but also many residents in the least deprived areas. So I downloaded the data and worked out the proportion of each constituency in each deprivation decile, and identified those which were most polarised. Many of the rest of the top 10 have already been mentioned - they were: Weaver Vale Ellesmere Port and Neston Bury North Newcastle upon Tyne East Bristol North West Keighley Basildon and Billericay Blyth Valley Bristol West A good example of very socially divided but increasingly little difference in (national) voting behaviour. Byker and Walker are near universally poor and vote strongly Labour. The studentified inner suburbs of Heaton, Jesmond and Ouseburn all vote very comfortably Labour these days despite little poverty, and even their posh owner occupier edges probably voted Labour in 2019 (they almost certainly will have in 2017). |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 3, 2022 19:03:06 GMT
Using deprivation figures makes it possible to quantify this. Constituencies which are as you describe will have many residents in very deprived areas, but also many residents in the least deprived areas. So I downloaded the data and worked out the proportion of each constituency in each deprivation decile, and identified those which were most polarised. Many of the rest of the top 10 have already been mentioned - they were: Weaver Vale Ellesmere Port and Neston Bury North Newcastle upon Tyne East Bristol North West Keighley Basildon and Billericay Blyth Valley Bristol West Newcastle North was just outside the top 10 - again you have very affluent areas such as (most of) Gosforth and the new housing around Great Park, combined with more deprived estates such as West Denton and Newbiggin Hall. Where it differs will be voting patterns - Gosforth is probably still Conservative, just about, whereas the working class parts of Newcastle North will definitely vote Labour but not as staunchly as their eastern equivalents. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 3, 2022 19:43:47 GMT
I assume bjornhattan statistics were based on LSOAs, which are quite small. Kudos for trying to create constituency stats out of these. MSOAs are about 7000 population and more manageable. There are quite a number of uniformly poor and uniformly rich seats, some of which have already been listed by batman . My suggestion of Rayleigh & Wickford for homogeneity was based on the thought that there are probably no LSOAs in either the top or bottom decile. I don’t however have the data to hand. |
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Post by jakegb on Jan 3, 2022 20:04:06 GMT
Portsmouth South (my home seat) is certainly divided. On one hand, you have affluent parts like Craneswater and parts of Central Southsea/St Thomas, alongside some highly deprived places (Fratton, Charles Dickens). This perhaps explains the change in colours (yellow, blue and red) in recent years, though I imagine Labour will become increasingly safe, due to the rising student population/high number of public sector workers.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 3, 2022 20:17:42 GMT
What’s the opposite to the question in this thread? Which constituencies are the least disparate or most uniform? Somewhere in London Commuter land in Brent or Harrow or a peripheral Liverpool mostly Council estate seat like West Derby perhaps? Or Castle Point? Barnsley Central? |
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Post by batman on Jan 3, 2022 20:23:40 GMT
already suggested that one above.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 3, 2022 20:36:30 GMT
Yeah noticed that after I posted. I think Rotherham does have a more upmarket ward though, Broom.
But yeah, no middle class areas in Barnsley Central I don't think
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Post by andrewp on Jan 3, 2022 20:44:57 GMT
Yeah noticed that after I posted. I think Rotherham does have a more upmarket ward though, Broom. But yeah, no middle class areas in Barnsley Central I don't think Rotherham does have a few different areas- a central terraced area with an Asian population, as you say part of Broom which is middle class semi detached territory, some council estates and some almost separate villages at Thorpe Hesley and Greasborough. |
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Post by froome on Jan 3, 2022 20:46:40 GMT
Most constituencies, being pretty large with close to 100,000 residents, will have pockets of poverty and wealth. The thing about Meriden (and some of the London seats like Kensington) is the stark opposition between the two, and the absence of the usual mass of people in the middle. Using deprivation figures makes it possible to quantify this. Constituencies which are as you describe will have many residents in very deprived areas, but also many residents in the least deprived areas. So I downloaded the data and worked out the proportion of each constituency in each deprivation decile, and identified those which were most polarised. By this measure, Meriden is far and away the most disparate constituency in England. Every way I analysed the figures it came out top, and that applied whether looking at overall deprivation or focusing on income. Many of the rest of the top 10 have already been mentioned - they were: Weaver Vale Ellesmere Port and Neston Bury North Newcastle upon Tyne East Bristol North West Keighley Basildon and Billericay Blyth Valley Bristol West Kensington was somewhat odd - only number 16 overall, but second when just looking at income. The problem seems to be that the overall deprivation figures take things like pollution and crime into account, which means even very affluent parts of central London are very rarely in the lowest deprivation decile. And of course, the other problem with this analysis is it won't show up constituencies which are polarised in other ways, such as Birmingham Hodge Hill.
Bristol West wasn't mentioned previously and is an interesting inclusion. I had thought of suggesting it, as the eastern third of the constituency is very different in most respects to the rest of it. However, if the boundary review goes ahead and Lawrence Hill and Easton wards are removed from the constituency, it would probably then be a good contender for one of the least disparate constituencies. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 3, 2022 20:47:51 GMT
I assume bjornhattan statistics were based on LSOAs, which are quite small. Kudos for trying to create constituency stats out of these. MSOAs are about 7000 population and more manageable. There are quite a number of uniformly poor and uniformly rich seats, some of which have already been listed by batman . My suggestion of Rayleigh & Wickford for homogeneity was based on the thought that there are probably no LSOAs in either the top or bottom decile. I don’t however have the data to hand. I've just checked and 26% of Rayleigh and Wickford is in the least deprived decile - a lot more than I was expecting. The most middling constituency according to my figures is Ilford South (87% of its MSOAs are in the middle four deciles), closely followed by Central Devon (85%). The latter in particular seems very homogeneous - a mix of small towns and rural areas all within easy reach of Exeter and neither particularly deprived nor particularly wealthy. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 3, 2022 20:51:23 GMT
Were you the author of attack leaflets from Labour in Solihull elections past? Because the tone is very similar. including the 'incredibly rare' line? That'd be a funny leaflet. Seriously though, I've no opinion on the quality of Chelmsley Wood's current representation and would not find it remotely unusual if Richard is entirely correct. (It's not because they're Green votes, it's because they're desparate votes for some, any non-big3 alternative.) He's also not actually contradicting what I was trying to get at. I have opinions on the issue, and the only thing he's got right about them is that they are effective campaigners. And the views of the residents of the three wards in Chelmsley Wood is the polar opposite of Richard's. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 3, 2022 20:54:33 GMT
I assume bjornhattan statistics were based on LSOAs, which are quite small. Kudos for trying to create constituency stats out of these. MSOAs are about 7000 population and more manageable. There are quite a number of uniformly poor and uniformly rich seats, some of which have already been listed by batman . My suggestion of Rayleigh & Wickford for homogeneity was based on the thought that there are probably no LSOAs in either the top or bottom decile. I don’t however have the data to hand. I've just checked and 26% of Rayleigh and Wickford is in the least deprived decile - a lot more than I was expecting. The most middling constituency according to my figures is Ilford South (87% of its MSOAs are in the middle four deciles), closely followed by Central Devon (85%). The latter in particular seems very homogeneous - a mix of small towns and rural areas all within easy reach of Exeter and neither particularly deprived nor particularly wealthy. Central Devon. Very good. I was thinking about rural and small town constituencies (eg Stratford) but had forgotten about that one. Some London suburbs are quite homogenous but I’m surprised by Ilford South. Cranbrook used to be quite prosperous, and parts of central Ilford are quite run down. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 3, 2022 20:58:27 GMT
I've just checked and 26% of Rayleigh and Wickford is in the least deprived decile - a lot more than I was expecting. The most middling constituency according to my figures is Ilford South (87% of its MSOAs are in the middle four deciles), closely followed by Central Devon (85%). The latter in particular seems very homogeneous - a mix of small towns and rural areas all within easy reach of Exeter and neither particularly deprived nor particularly wealthy. Central Devon. Very good. I was thinking about rural and small town constituencies but had forgotten about that one. Some London suburbs are quite homogenous but I’m surprised by Ilford South. Cranbrook used to be quite prosperous, and parts of central Ilford are quite run down. I have looked at SIMD (the Scottish deprivation stats) from time to time, and Moray seems to have to mostly middling areas. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 3, 2022 21:22:52 GMT
Most constituencies, being pretty large with close to 100,000 residents, will have pockets of poverty and wealth. The thing about Meriden (and some of the London seats like Kensington) is the stark opposition between the two, and the absence of the usual mass of people in the middle. Using deprivation figures makes it possible to quantify this. Constituencies which are as you describe will have many residents in very deprived areas, but also many residents in the least deprived areas. So I downloaded the data and worked out the proportion of each constituency in each deprivation decile, and identified those which were most polarised.
By this measure, Meriden is far and away the most disparate constituency in England. Every way I analysed the figures it came out top, and that applied whether looking at overall deprivation or focusing on income.
Many of the rest of the top 10 have already been mentioned - they were: Weaver Vale Ellesmere Port and Neston Bury North Newcastle upon Tyne East Bristol North West Keighley Basildon and Billericay Blyth Valley Bristol West
Kensington was somewhat odd - only number 16 overall, but second when just looking at income. The problem seems to be that the overall deprivation figures take things like pollution and crime into account, which means even very affluent parts of central London are very rarely in the lowest deprivation decile. And of course, the other problem with this analysis is it won't show up constituencies which are polarised in other ways, such as Birmingham Hodge Hill.
Beautiful, thanks for this! Am surprised by Bury North being on there but it is fitting with its ‘most marginal seat in GB’ status. Of course the estates around town centre are relatively deprived but when I’ve been round there it didn’t seem abject or degraded, though there is the infamous Dickie Bird. Likewise Tottington and Ramsbottom are nice but not exactly Bowden or Hale, or even Uppermill (and Rammy is now a semi-reliable Labour seat) Many of you may already be familiar with this website which has maps that visualise this nicely - I’m not getting off my Oldham East and Saddleworth horse only because it flips the “poorer east” theory round, but the geography of course dictates this and Oldham proper’s position east of Manchester follows this ‘rule’. Having had a quick scan through of all the maps what was quite striking to me was how homegoenously middle of the road the West Country is, much of Cornwall being a pale shade of blue, not super affluent or deprived. Probably due to seasonal industry, rural deprivation, poor connections. I think much of Norfolk/Suffolk was similar. In terms of urban areas, out of Manchester I’d nominate Gorton as being the most homogenous, as Central has a citadel of affluence in the City Centre. I’m also surprised that Corby (and East Northamptonshire) hasn’t been mentioned yet (apologies if it has been).  |
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 3, 2022 21:26:22 GMT
East and West split is quite common. In Sheffield the life expectancy if you get on a bus in Southey Green that terminates in Totley jumps by 9 years. That's the psephology of industrial pollution and prevailing winds. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jan 3, 2022 21:36:08 GMT
East and West split is quite common. In Sheffield the life expectancy if you get on a bus in Southey Green that terminates in Totley jumps by 9 years. That's the psephology of industrial pollution and prevailing winds. I wonder if there are any towns or cities where the prosperous areas are in the east end? |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 3, 2022 21:37:12 GMT
including the 'incredibly rare' line? That'd be a funny leaflet. Seriously though, I've no opinion on the quality of Chelmsley Wood's current representation and would not find it remotely unusual if Richard is entirely correct. (It's not because they're Green votes, it's because they're desparate votes for some, any non-big3 alternative.) He's also not actually contradicting what I was trying to get at. I have opinions on the issue, and the only thing he's got right about them is that they are effective campaigners. And the views of the residents of the three wards in Chelmsley Wood is the polar opposite of Richard's.The vast majority of people have no idea if their councillors are effective or not. If a party is good at putting out regular newsletters it is very easy to give the impression of lots of achievements on behalf of residents, especially as most people have little idea what powers councillors have. The claims of achievement are mostly very minor things, or taking credit for decisions made by the council ruling group or things that are statutory requirements. Furthermore in the last local elections your party received the support of 12% of the electorate in Chelmsley Wood, 11% in Smiths Wood and 9% in Kingshurst and Fordbridge. The vast majority of people in the three wards clearly don't give a damn who their councillors are. |
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 3, 2022 21:47:26 GMT
That's the psephology of industrial pollution and prevailing winds. I wonder if there are any towns or cities where the prosperous areas are in the east end? My remark about pollution being a major factor in this wasn't totally flippant. It was something I studied as an undergraduate and there is a definite correlation between wind direction in a town or city and the prosperity of various suburbs. The wind blows the dirt from the woking parts eastwards, so the western bits were mostly smoke free. But that will be less the case in non-industrial places or where there has been wide scale gentrification and a shift. It could also be less true in somehere with a paricular attraction - say a river - on the eatern side or, as with the example someone gave of Oldham, where the east side is up in the hills. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 3, 2022 22:01:03 GMT
That's the psephology of industrial pollution and prevailing winds. I wonder if there are any towns or cities where the prosperous areas are in the east end? From a cursory glance, Plymouth, Poole, Bath, Portsmouth, and Bedford all seem to have prosperous easts and poorer wests. In four of those, water appears to play a major factor - both Portsmouth and Plymouth had their dockyards in their western part, Poole has a working harbour in the west of town and the beaches of Sandbanks to the east, while in Bath the Avon flows west and presumably the wealth wanted to be upstream of the various industries around the city centre and Twerton.
Bedford is the only exception to this rule - and I don't know enough about the place to see why the west would be poorer than the east there (and why one part of its east, Goldington, completely bucks that trend). Does anyone have any ideas?
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Post by batman on Jan 3, 2022 22:32:04 GMT
Not much of Bedford west of the town centre is that poor, although Labour enjoys some middle-class support around the Poets Estate north of Midland station. There are some quite pleasant areas of the town. The town is however a bit lopsided with the town centre towards the west of the built-up area, so if you include the town centre it's sort of true - this lopsidedness is also a characteristic of Oxford & Cambridge. Things are also a bit complicated by the Kempston factor. Oxford is quite complex in terms of social class, and for many years West ward was the safest (in certain years, the only) Labour ward in the city, although the Oxford East constituency has always been far better for Labour than West & Abingdon.
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