Prediction Competition - January 2022

[yellowperil]

Charnwood, Loughborough Skelthorpe: Con 16,Lab 40, LD 20,GP 7, Ind 17. Lab winx2
East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards: Con 48,Ind 52
East Lothian, Preston etc: Con 18, Lab 39, LD 4, SGP 6, SNP 30, Ind 3. Lab win on transfers.
Selby,Byrom & Brotherton: Con 34, Lab 44, GP 22

[dundas]

Charnwood, Loughborough: Lab 30, Con 15 Lib Dem 26, Green 17, Ind 12 (Lab x 1, Con x 1)
East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards: Ind 55, Con 45
East Lothian, Preston: Lab 25, Con 19, SNP 18, Green 10, Ind 20, Lib Dem 8 (Lab win)
Selby, Byrom and Brotherton: Lab 40, Con 33, Green 27

[manchesterman]

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood

LAB 37% (x2)
IND 15%
GRN 18%
LDM 15%
CON 15%

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey

IND 62%
CON 38%

Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian

SNP 25%
LAB 32% WIN
GRN 10%
IND 10%
LDM 5%
CON 18%

Byram and Brotherton, Selby

LAB 42%
GRN 25%
CON 33%

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, losing andykernow, johnloony and ricmk. Manchesterman was timed out therefore scoring 100 per contest but I've included the prediction within the weekly competition. Otherwise, all on time and correct.

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood: 100% Labour ahead on top vote, with 11 Labour hold of both seats, with dundas 1 Conservative gain and Toylyyev 1 Liberal Democrat gain.
Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey: 9 Independent (Fenton) gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian: 10 have Labour ahead on first preferences and holding after transfers, with Richard Cromwell having SNP ahead on firsts and Labour holding after transfers, and kevinf and peterl having SNP ahead on firsts and gaining after transfers.
Byram and Brotherton, Selby: 100% Labour gain from Yorkshire Party, with majorities ranging from 7% (dundas, kevinf, Richard Cromwell and Right Leaning) to 16% (andrewp and peterl).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sIEW3MsIEDQecRdnVycwDIbQdfnHTc70NeExPgwcR-8/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to iainbhx for the week, not the easiest by any means, and to Robert Waller (of course) for choosing his moment to take up the lead for the month. 

The first two weeks when we had the chance to really concentrate on single contests, I tried really hard to research those elections and started believing all the social media stuff, as always a recipe for disaster. This week I was very busy on everything else, nearly decided to pull out, but in the end  getting an entry in which more or less made up any numbers provided they added up to 100. That was particularly true of the Scottish one. So I did quite a bit better this week and actually shared the lead in Scotland! This whole thing is quite barmy.

[manchesterman]

Jan 21, 2022 1:00:26 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, losing andykernow, johnloony and ricmk. Manchesterman was timed out therefore scoring 100 per contest but I've included the prediction within the weekly competition. Otherwise, all on time and correct.

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood: 100% Labour ahead on top vote, with 11 Labour hold of both seats, with dundas 1 Conservative gain and Toylyyev 1 Liberal Democrat gain.
Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey: 9 Independent (Fenton) gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian: 10 have Labour ahead on first preferences and holding after transfers, with Richard Cromwell having SNP ahead on firsts and Labour holding after transfers, and kevinf and peterl having SNP ahead on firsts and gaining after transfers.
Byram and Brotherton, Selby: 100% Labour gain from Yorkshire Party, with majorities ranging from 7% (dundas, kevinf, Richard Cromwell and Right Leaning) to 16% (andrewp and peterl).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sIEW3MsIEDQecRdnVycwDIbQdfnHTc70NeExPgwcR-8/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Bah!  This is only my 3rd week of playing this and , whilst I should have checked the fine print of the rules, I had assumed that the deadline would have been the closing of the polls    

Do you consider grovelling claims for leniency at all? 

[robbienicoll]

Jan 21, 2022 14:10:46 GMT manchesterman said:

Jan 21, 2022 1:00:26 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, losing andykernow, johnloony and ricmk. Manchesterman was timed out therefore scoring 100 per contest but I've included the prediction within the weekly competition. Otherwise, all on time and correct.

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood: 100% Labour ahead on top vote, with 11 Labour hold of both seats, with dundas 1 Conservative gain and Toylyyev 1 Liberal Democrat gain.
Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey: 9 Independent (Fenton) gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian: 10 have Labour ahead on first preferences and holding after transfers, with Richard Cromwell having SNP ahead on firsts and Labour holding after transfers, and kevinf and peterl having SNP ahead on firsts and gaining after transfers.
Byram and Brotherton, Selby: 100% Labour gain from Yorkshire Party, with majorities ranging from 7% (dundas, kevinf, Richard Cromwell and Right Leaning) to 16% (andrewp and peterl).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sIEW3MsIEDQecRdnVycwDIbQdfnHTc70NeExPgwcR-8/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Bah!  This is only my 3rd week of playing this and , whilst I should have checked the fine print of the rules, I had assumed that the deadline would have been the closing of the polls    

Do you consider grovelling claims for leniency at all? 

Apologies, I saw this and forgot to reply. There is indeed a leeway for a first offence for first time entrants in their first month, which cuts time faults in half, but I don't believe this was intended to apply to timeouts since someone could score more despite entering on time. I've knocked 100 off the timeout faults to reflect this, but that's the first offence leeway used up!

[Tony Otim]

Maypole & Leyton Cross: Con 57.3; LD 19.6; Lab 12.6; Grn 10.5
Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley: Con 61.4; Lab 25.2; LD 13.4
Wilmington: Con 48.2; Lab 24.8; LD 18.6; Grn 8.4

[dundas]

Wilmington, Kent: Con 48 Lab 25 Lib Dem 20 Green 7
Maypole: Con 53, Lab 24, Lib Dem 18, Green 5
Wilmington: Con 58, Lab 21, Lib Dem 21

[kevinf]

Dartford Maypole
Con 37
Lab 27
Libdem 24
Green 12

Dartford Wilmington
Con 40
Lab 32
Libdem 28

Kent Wilmington
Con 35
Lab 27
Libdem 25
Green 13

[Tony Otim]

Jan 26, 2022 11:23:52 GMT dundas said:

Wilmington: Con 48 Lab 25 Lib Dem 20 Green 7
Maypole: Con 53, Lab 24, Lib Dem 18, Green 5
Wilmington, Kent: Con 58, Lab 21, Lib Dem 21

Judging by the parties, I think you've labelled the wrong Wilmington as Kent (or wrongly have a Green in the district rather than the county)...

[Richard Cromwell]

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dartford

GRN	44%
LDM	28%
CON	15%
LAB	13%

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley, Dartford

CON	42%
LDM	32%
LAB	26%

Wilmington, Kent

LAB	29%
CON	26%
GRN	25%
LDM	20%

[johnloony]

I predict:

Dartford MLC: Con 48 Lab 21 LD 18 Grn 13
Dartford WSHH: Lab 40 Con 33 LD 27
Kent Wilmington: Con 33 Lab 28 LD 24 Grn 15

[yellowperil]

Jan 26, 2022 13:45:36 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Maypole & Leyton Cross, Dratford

GRN	44%
LDM	28%
CON	15%
LAB	13%

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley, Dratford

CON	42%
LDM	32%
LAB	26%

Wilmington, Kent

LAB	29%
CON	26%
GRN	25%
LDM	20%

I do like Dratford. Just how I feel about the place.

[andrewp]

Dartford, Maypole and Leyton Cross. Con 54, LD 18, Lab 17, Green 11
Dartford. Wilmington, Sutton at Hone and Hawley. Con 54, Lab 28, LD 18
Kent. Wilmington. Con 50, Lab 25, LD 15: Green 10

[peterl]

Dartford, Maypole and Leyton Cross. Con 48, LD 22, Lab 17, Green 13
Dartford. Wilmington, Sutton at Hone and Hawley. Con 47, Lab 29, LD 24
Kent. Wilmington. Con 45, Lab 29, LD 14: Green 12

[manchesterman]

Dartford, M&LC
Con 49%
LD 24%
Lab 16%
GRN 11%

Dartford WS&H
Con 42%
LD 33%
Lab 25%

Kent Wilmington
Con 40%
Lab 22%
LD 20%
GRN 18%

[Toylyyev]

DARTFORD BC, Maypole and Leyton Cross:
Conservative 51, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 6, Green 35.
Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley:
Conservative 52, Labour 29, Liberal Democrat 19.

KENT CC, Wilmington:
Conservative 42, Labour 11.6, Liberal Democrat 41.9, Green 4.5.

[greenhert]

Dartford BC, Maypole & Leyton Cross: Conservative 63, Liberal Democrats 15, Labour 12, Green 10.
Dartford BC, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Home & Hawley: Conservative 53, Labour 32, Liberal Democrats 15.
Kent CC, Wilmington: Conservative 59, Liberal Democrats 22, Labour 13, Green 6.

[Robert Waller]

Dartford, Maypole and Leyton Cross. Con 45, LD 25, Lab 12, Green 18
Dartford. Wilmington, Sutton at Hone and Hawley. Con 50, Lab 25, LD 25
Kent. Wilmington. Con 45, Lab 25, LD 25: Green 5