Prediction Competition - January 2022

[greenhert]

Wychavon DC, The Littletons: Green 48, Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 10. Green gain from Conservative.

[Robert Waller]

Wychavon, The Littletons:
Con 38, Green 31, LD 31

[Toylyyev]

WYCHAVON DC, The Littletons:
Conservative 39.9, Liberal Democrat 20.1, Green 40.

[rightleaning]

Wychavon, The Littletons: Gn 42, C 38, LD 20

[Tony Otim]

Well at least we can't all be wrong this week...

[andrewp]

Jan 13, 2022 8:51:57 GMT Tony Otim said:

Well at least we can't all be wrong this week

It’s a corker of a prediction isn’t it.  Any of the three winning wouldn’t be a surprise to me.

[robbienicoll]

Bumper 16 entries this week, with johnloony and ricmk returning and agbutler missing. All on time and correct.

The Littletons, Wychavon: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with andykernow, greenhert, peterl, Richard Cromwell, Right Leaning and Toylyyev Green gain, and andrewp, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eNTnfjVUv5TMObc84RZabSeXSruc95cAeuItt35Av_E/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Toylyyev]

Congratulations to peterl for a very likeable win.

[johnloony]

Bah humbug! I assumed that the Lib Dems would be good at winning by-elections and that the Greens would be rubbish at it, despite the electoral history of the ward.

[Toylyyev]

Jan 15, 2022 3:15:37 GMT johnloony said:

Bah humbug! I assumed that the Lib Dems would be good at winning by-elections and that the Greens would be rubbish at it, despite the electoral history of the ward.

Paddy's hat theorem says that Lib Dems are hard to predict.

But Gwynedd has been easier so far than some of the Valleys.

[kevinf]

20 Jan. Will get in early as am offline a lot this week
Charnwood top candidate
Lab 30
Con 21
Green 19
Lib D 16
Ind 14

East Lindsey
Con 60
Ind 40

East Lothian
SNP 30
Con 23
Lab 21
Lib .d 11
Green 10
Ind 5

Shelby
Lab 41
Con 34
Green 25

[Tony Otim]

Charnwood: Lab 40.5; Hayes 24.2; Con 17.1; Grn 11.1; LD 7.1 (2xLab elected)
East Lindsey: Fenton 55.2; Con 44.8
East Lothian: Lab 41.0; SNP 28.6; Con 18.8; Miller 4.9; Grn 3.8; LD 2.9 (Lab to win on transfers)
Selby: Lab 46.5; Con 33.2; Grn 20.3

[Richard Cromwell]

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood

LAB	50%
IND	19%
GRN	14%
CON	10%
LDM	7%

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey

IND	63%
CON	37%

Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian

SNP	26%
LAB	25%	Win On Transfers
IND	14%
GRN	13%
CON	12%
LDM	10%

Byram and Brotherton, Selby

LAB	44%
GRN	37%
CON	19%

[peterl]

Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood

LAB 45%
IND 22%
GRN 17%
LDM 9%
CON 7%

Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey

IND 65%
CON 35%

Preston, Seton and Gosford, East Lothian

SNP 27% Win
LAB 24%
GRN 15%
IND 14%
LDM 12%
CON 8%

Byram and Brotherton, Selby

LAB 46%
GRN 30%
CON 24%

[andrewp]

Charnwood. Loughborough Shelthorpe, Lab 41, Hayes 24, Con 20, LD 8, Green 7. 2x Lab win
East Lindsey. Chapel St Leonard’s. Ind 60, Con 40
East Lothian. Preston/ Seton/ Gosford. Lab 38, SNP 29, Con 16, Ind 8, Green 5, LD 4. Lab win on transfers
Selby. Byram and Brotherton. Lab 50, Con 34, Green 16

[greenhert]

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Labour 48, Independent (Hayes) 18, Conservative 18, Green 9, Liberal Democrats 7. 2xLabour hold.
East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonard's: Independent (Fenton) 55, Conservative 45. Independent gain from Conservative.
East Lothian UA, Preston/Seton/Gosford (1st preferences): Labour 41, SNP 31.5, Conservative 13, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4.5, Independent (Miller) 4. Labour hold on transfers.
Selby DC, Byram & Brotherton: Labour 45, Conservative 35, Green 20. Labour gain from Conservative.

[Toylyyev]

CHARNWOOD DC, Loughborough Shelthorpe, top vote: Labour and Lib Dem wins.
Conservative 15, Labour 30.5, Liberal Democrat 26.5, Green 8.5, Independent 19.5.

EAST LINDSEY DC, Chapel St Leonards:
Conservative 64.5, Independent 35.5.

EAST LOTHIAN UA, Preston, Seton and Gosford: (Hedged) Labour win on transfers.
Conservative 18, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 2.5, Green 14, SNP 28, Independent 7.5.

SELBY DC, Byram and Brotherton:
Conservative 33, Labour 41, Green 26.

[Robert Waller]

Charnwood. Loughborough Shelthorpe. Lab 39, Hayes 22, Con 21, LD 11, Green 7. 2 x Lab win

East Lindsey. Chapel St Leonard’s. Ind 49, Con 51

East Lothian. Preston/ Seton/ Gosford. Lab 38, SNP 30, Con 18, Ind 5, Green 5, LD 4. Lab win on transfers

Selby. Byram and Brotherton. Lab 47, Con 33, Green 20

[rightleaning]

Charnwood:- Loughborough Shelthorpe - Lab 39, C 19, Gn 17, Ind 14, LD 11 2 x Lab win

East Lindsey. Chapel St Leonard’s. Ind 54, Con 46

East Lothian. Preston/ Seton/ Gosford. Lab 42, SNP 28, Con 18, Gn 6, LD 3, Ind 3 Lab win on transfers

Selby. Byram and Brotherton. Lab 42, Con 35, Gn 23

[iainbhx]

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Skelthorpe : Lab 41 Ind 20 Con 18 LDm 13 Grn 8 2x Lab Win
East Lindsay DC, Chapel St Leonards: Con 57 Ind 43
East Lothian SUA: Preston, Seton & Gosforth: Lab 38 SNP 29 Con 17 Grn 7 Ind 6 LDm 3 Lab Win on Transfers
Selby DC, Byram & Brotherton: Lab 44 Con 33 Grn 23