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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 10, 2021 7:39:58 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for North Shropshire by election.
16th December 2021
The candidates as a reminder are:
Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK
Ben Wood, - Labour
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 14 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 7.1 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 3.6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 16th December 2021.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Dec 10, 2021 8:24:12 GMT
LIb Dem 48.7
Conservative 34.1
Labour 9.6
Green 2.7
Reform 1.8
UKIP 0.7
Rejoin 0.6
Reclaim 0.5
Heritage 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
Freedom 0.2
Ind 0.2
Party 0.1
(-) 0.1
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Post by mysticrobin on Dec 10, 2021 9:39:49 GMT
Con 40
LibDem 35
Lab 12.5
Reform UK 5.0
Green 4.0
UKIP 1.0
Reclaim 0.5
Rejoin EU 0.5
Smith (IND) 0.3
OMLRP 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Freedom 0.2
Kenward (IND) 0.2
Party party 0.2
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 10, 2021 9:49:53 GMT
LIb Dem 48.7 Conservative 34.1 Labour 9.6 Green 2.7 Reform 1.8 UKIP 0.7 Rejoin 0.6 Reclaim 0.5 Heritage 0.4 OMRLP 0.3 Freedom 0.2 Ind 0.2 Party 0.1 (-) 0.1
johnloony which Independent have you given 0.2 to and which Independent got 0.1? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 10:35:36 GMT
Lib Dem 40.6
Con 40.5
Lab 8.1
Green 4.1
Reform 3.1
Freedom 0.9
Reclaim 0.7
Rejoin 0.5
UKIP 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Akers Smith 0.3
Party 0.2
Kenward 0.0
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Post by froome on Dec 10, 2021 11:29:08 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for North Shropshire by election. 16th December 2021 The candidates as a reminder are: Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative Yolande Ann Kenward, - Independent Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK Ben Wood, - Labour Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 14 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 7.1 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 3.6 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 16th December 2021. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Have Fun. DHAA Do we get penalised for getting the bottom 9 candidates results in the wrong order?  It will probably be a matter of tossing a coin to work out which comes where. Far too early to make a prediction now. A week is a very, very long time in politics at this moment. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Dec 10, 2021 11:48:18 GMT
LIb Dem 48.7 Conservative 34.1 Labour 9.6 Green 2.7 Reform 1.8 UKIP 0.7 Rejoin 0.6 Reclaim 0.5 Heritage 0.4 OMRLP 0.3 Freedom 0.2 Ind 0.2 Party 0.1 (-) 0.1 johnloony which Independent have you given 0.2 to and which Independent got 0.1? It is excruciatingly obvious which is which, because one is an Independent candidate, and the other is a candidate with no description. I have labelled them accordingly. If you were stupid enough not to be able to notice the difference (in other words, if you had minus infinity brain cells), then it would be necessary for me to explain to you that (Ind) is the standard normal abbreviation for Independent, and that (-) is the standard normal abbreviation for no description; the fact that the universe is not literally tearing itself apart under the pressure of minus infinity of anything therefore means that no such explanation is necessary. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 10, 2021 12:07:29 GMT
This is my prediction:
Helen Morgan(Liberal Democrats) 43.5%
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Conservative) 40%
Ben Wood (Labour) 8%
Duncan Kerr (Green) 3%
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) 2.6%
Andrea Allen (UKIP) 0.7%
Martin Daubney (Reclaim UK) 0.6%
"Boris Been-Bunged" (Rejoin EU) 0.4%
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope (OMRLP) 0.3%
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) 0.3%
James Elliot (Heritage Party) 0.2%
Suzie Akers-Smith (Independent) 0.2%
Russell Dean (Party Party) 0.1%
Yolande Kenward (No Description) 0.1%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 10, 2021 15:19:03 GMT
johnloony which Independent have you given 0.2 to and which Independent got 0.1? It is excruciatingly obvious which is which, because one is an Independent candidate, and the other is a candidate with no description. I have labelled them accordingly. If you were stupid enough not to be able to notice the difference (in other words, if you had minus infinity brain cells), then it would be necessary for me to explain to you that (Ind) is the standard normal abbreviation for Independent, and that (-) is the standard normal abbreviation for no description; the fact that the universe is not literally tearing itself apart under the pressure of minus infinity of anything therefore means that no such explanation is necessary. Well, you failed to notice where I copied it from had them both as independent. I will edit the opening post to help future contestants. Thank you for your open and frank elucidation. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 10, 2021 15:22:05 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for North Shropshire by election. 16th December 2021 The candidates as a reminder are: Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative Yolande Ann Kenward, - Independent Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK Ben Wood, - Labour Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 14 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 7.1 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 3.6 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 16th December 2021. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Have Fun. DHAA Do we get penalised for getting the bottom 9 candidates results in the wrong order? It will probably be a matter of tossing a coin to work out which comes where. Far too early to make a prediction now. A week is a very, very long time in politics at this moment. No, the order doesn't matter within the current rules, just the winner, but I could alter the rules just for your entry if you like. 😁 |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Dec 10, 2021 15:22:55 GMT
Helen Morgan (Liberal Democrats) 43.2%
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Conservative) 37.4%
Ben Wood (Labour) 9.2%
Duncan Kerr (Green) 4.1%
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) 3.2%
Martin Daubney (Reclaim UK) 0.9%
Andrea Allen (UKIP) 0.6%
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope (OMRLP) 0.4%
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) 0.3%
James Elliot (Heritage Party) 0.2%
"Boris Been-Bunged" (Rejoin EU) 0.2%
Suzie Akers-Smith (Independent) 0.1%
Russell Dean (Party Party) 0.1%
Yolande Kenward (No Description) 0.1%
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,890
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 10, 2021 16:22:41 GMT
CON 37.9
LD 36.9
LAB 10.1
REF 6.2
GRE 5.1
REC 2.2
IND 0.9
UKIP 0.2
NOD 0.2
FARA 0.1
OMRL 0.1
REJ 0.1
HER 0.0
PAR 0.0
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Dec 12, 2021 2:30:55 GMT
Going a bit early with this one but not available all week
Liberal Democrat 44.7%
Conservative 39.8%
Labour 6.5%
Reform UK 3.9%
Green 2.2%
UKIP 0.8%
Reclaim 0.7%
Rejoin EU 0.4%
Smith (IND) 0.2%
OMLRP 0.2%
Heritage 0.2%
Freedom 0.2%
Kenward (IND) 0.1%
Party party 0.1%
Liberal Democrat Gain From Conservative
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Dec 12, 2021 23:37:59 GMT
Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.1%
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 2%
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 0.5%
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 0.4%
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.2%
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.2%
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 0.3%
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.2%
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description 0.1%
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 3.5%
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats41%
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 39%
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 3%
Ben Wood, - Labour 9.5%
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 14, 2021 1:17:41 GMT
Liberal Democrat - 38.2%
Conservative and Unionist - 37.7%
Labour - 12.2%
Reform - 5.0...%
Reclaim - 1.7%
Green - 2.1%
UKIP - 1%
OMRLP - 0.6%
Freedom - 0.5%
REU - 0.2%
Heritage - 0.2%
Independent - 0.2%
Non Descrip. - 0.2%
Party Party - 0.2%
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Post by nobodyimportant on Dec 14, 2021 6:35:38 GMT
I think there's a gap in the market here.
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party - 41%
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats - 33.5%
Ben Wood, - Labour - 15.5%
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK - 6%
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party - 1.5%
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP - 1%
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party - 1%
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party - 0.5%
Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent - 0%
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU - 0%
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party - 0%
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party - 0%
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative - 0%
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description - 0%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 14, 2021 7:49:39 GMT
Liberal Democrat - 38.2% Conservative and Unionist - 37.7% Labour - 12.2% Reform - 5.0...% Reclaim - 2.7% Green - 2.1% OMRLP - 0.6% Freedom - 0.5% REU - 0.2% Heritage - 0.2% Independent - 0.2% Non Descrip. - 0.2% Party Party - 0.2%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 14, 2021 7:59:27 GMT
Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.3
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 0.4
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 1.2
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 1.1
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.1
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.4
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 0.5
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.2
Yolande Ann Kenward, - Independent 0.1
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 3.7
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats 37.2
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 37.8
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 5.7
Ben Wood, - Labour 11.3
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Post by andykernow on Dec 14, 2021 11:06:15 GMT
LIb Dem 46
Conservative 31.7
Labour 8.6
Reform 7
Green 4.4
UKIP 0.5
Rejoin 0.5
Reclaim 0.3
OMRLP 0.3
Ind Y 0.2
Heritage 0.2
Freedom 0.1
Party 0.1
Ind S 0.1
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 14, 2021 14:56:51 GMT
Liberal Democrat - 38.2% Conservative and Unionist - 37.7% Labour - 12.2% Reform - 5.0...% Reclaim - 2.7% Green - 2.1% OMRLP - 0.6% Freedom - 0.5% REU - 0.2% Heritage - 0.2% Independent - 0.2% Non Descrip. - 0.2% Party Party - 0.2%
Oh🤣. I've edited it. |
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It will probably be a matter of tossing a coin to work out which comes where.
