North Shropshire - 16th December 2021

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All entries so far have been accepted and add up to 100%.

[froome]

Liberal Democrat 38.1%
Conservative 34.9%
Labour 13.2%
Reform UK 6.8%
Green Party 5.0%
UKIP 0.8%
OMRLP 0.4%
Independent (Akers Smith) 0.3%
Freedom Alliance 0.2%
Reclaim Party 0.1%
Rejoin EU 0.1%
Heritage Party 0.1%
Party Party 0.0%
No Description (Kenward) 0.0%

My head says we won't save our deposit but my heart won out. But sadly I'm more confident that we won't win the battle for fourth place.

[Richard Cromwell]

LDM	31%
CON	30%
LAB	19%
GRN	11%
Rejoin	8%
OMRL	1%
IND	0%
Reform	0%
No Description	0%
Reclaim	0%
Freedom Alliance	0%
Heritage	0%
UKIP	0%
Party	0%

[No Offence Alan]

Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.2%
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 0.6%
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 0.3%
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 1.3%
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.1%
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.2%
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 0.3%
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.2%
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description 0.4%
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 4.0%
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats 38.0%
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 32.0%
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 5.4%
Ben Wood, - Labour - 17.0%

[Pete Whitehead]

Con	40.1%
LD	37.1%
Lab	11.6%
Ref	4.4%
Grn	3.7%
Ind	0.8%
UKIP	0.6%
Rec	0.5%
EU	0.3%
Her	0.3%
FA	0.2%
MRLP	0.2%
ND	0.1%
PP	0.1%

[bigfatron]

Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.2%
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 0.6%
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 0.2%
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 1.1%
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.1%
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.1%
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 0.3%
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.2%
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description 0.2%
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 4.0%
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats 36.0%
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 38.5%
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 5.5%
Ben Wood, - Labour - 13.0%

[mattb]

LD 41.5
Con 39.5
Lab 8.5
Grn 5
Ref 3
Rej 0.5
Rec 0.5
Herit 0.3
UKIP 0.3
Ind 0.3
FA 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Party 0.1
No Desc 0.1

[bjornhattan]

LD 37.5
Con 37.4
Lab 11.2
Ref 7.1
Green 3.4
Reclaim 0.9
UKIP 0.6
Rejoin 0.4
OMRLP 0.4
FA 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Ind 0.3
Party 0.1
No Description 0.1

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Dec 15, 2021 22:29:41 GMT bjornhattan said:

LD 37.5
Con 37.4
Lab 11.2
Ref 7.1
Green 3.4
Reclaim 0.9
UKIP 0.6
Rejoin 0.4
OMRLP 0.4
FA 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Ind 0.3
Party 0.1
No Description 0.1

That would be a long night🤣.

[bjornhattan]

Dec 15, 2021 22:34:40 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Dec 15, 2021 22:29:41 GMT bjornhattan said:

LD 37.5
Con 37.4
Lab 11.2
Ref 7.1
Green 3.4
Reclaim 0.9
UKIP 0.6
Rejoin 0.4
OMRLP 0.4
FA 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Ind 0.3
Party 0.1
No Description 0.1

That would be a long night🤣.

I was extremely tempted to put LD 37.45, Con 37.44 (and add 0.01 to No Description or something). I definitely expect it to be a close one...

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Dec 15, 2021 22:52:50 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 15, 2021 22:34:40 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

That would be a long night🤣.

I was extremely tempted to put LD 37.45, Con 37.44 (and add 0.01 to No Description or something). I definitely expect it to be a close one...

Yes. I have it at half a percent myself. As I'm going to wait for it, I'm going to buy Reese's peanut butter cups and Pepsi Max to keep me up.😅

[Andrew_S]

LD 39.9%
Con 39.3%
Lab 9.6%
Reform UK 6.2%
Green 2.1%
Reclaim 0.8%
UKIP 0.4%
Heritage 0.4%
Rejoin EU 0.3%
Akers-Smith (Ind) 0.3%
Loony 0.3%
Freedom Alliance 0.2%
Kenward (No Descr) 0.1%
Party Party 0.1%

Turnout 43%

[jamesdoyle]

Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats 37.1
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 35.0
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 12.0
Ben Wood, - Labour 11.0
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 1.6
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 1.1
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 0.6
Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.6
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.3
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 0.2
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 0.2
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.1
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description 0.1
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.1

[ricmk]

Looks like the gap in the market is for Labour to crash and burn - but I think the Lib Dems will be there or thereabouts, and that's only possible here if everyone else is badly squeezed. And if you're not in the top two in recent by-elections, your vote has been tiny. My genuine best guess is very close to greenhert 's but to try to find a bit of space I'll say:

LD 43
Con 41
Lab 4.8
Reform UK 4.4
Green 4
Reclaim 1
UKIP 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Loony 0.3
Freedom Alliance 0.3
Party Party 0.3
Rejoin EU 0.1
Akers-Smith 0.1
Kenward 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

22 entries accepted so far, all add up to 100%, competition remains open until 10pm tonight.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 16, 2021 9:42:02 GMT Andrew_S said:

Dec 16, 2021 9:03:46 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

22 entries accepted so far, all add up to 100%, competition remains open until 10pm tonight.

I'm not disputing the rules but I suppose one could argue in favour of a slightly earlier closing time for the competition, on the basis that quite reliable information does sometimes start to come through before 10pm.

The resubmission, the changing of entries, is allowed up to 10pm.

The 10pm closing of the competition is what was already in place when I started doing these, I have just continued custom and practice so to speak.

[msc]

Con 44
Lib 33
Lab 11
Reform 7
Green 3
Freedom 0.5
Reclaim 0.4
Rejoin 0.3
Heritage 0.2
UKIP 0.2
Akers-Smith 0.1
OMRLP 0.1
Party 0.1
Kenward 0.1

Never joined in these before as numbers have a habit of running away from my brain, but I believe this lot adds to 100.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 16, 2021 10:53:17 GMT msc said:

Con 44
Lib 33
Lab 11
Reform 7
Green 3
Freedom 0.5
Reclaim 0.4
Rejoin 0.3
Heritage 0.2
UKIP 0.2
Akers-Smith 0.1
OMRLP 0.1
Party 0.1
Kenward 0.1

Never joined in these before as numbers have a habit of running away from my brain, but I believe this lot adds to 100.

It does, entry accepted.

[agbutler]

Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent 0.1%
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP 0.7%
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU 0.1%
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party 1.2%
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party 0.1%
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party 0.2%
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party 0.2%
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative 0.3%
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description 0.1%
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party 3.0%
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats 34.0%
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party 29.0%
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK 12.0%
Ben Wood, - Labour - 19.0%

[LDCaerdydd]

Suzie Akers Smith, - Independent		0.2
Andrea Christabel Allen, - UKIP		0.4
Boris Been Bunged, - Rejoin EU		0.4
Martin Edward Daubney, - The Reclaim Party		0.7
Russell Fraser Dean, - The Party Party		0.3
James Alexander Elliot, - Heritage Party		0.2
Howling Lord Hope, - The Official Monster Raving Looney Party		0.6
Earl Elvis Phillipe Jesse, - Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative		0.5
Yolande Ann Kenward, - No Description		0.2
Duncan Alistair Kerr, - Green Party		2.1
Helen Margaret Lillian Morgan, - Liberal Democrats		38.8
Neil Shastri Hurst, - The Conservative Party		41.5
Kirsty Rebecca Walmsley, - Reform UK		4.3
Ben Wood, - Labour		9.8

Obviously I hope I'm wrong!