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Post by andrew111 on Dec 11, 2021 12:46:08 GMT
There is an argument that two party swing where both top parties increase their vote share at the expense of others is also close to meaningless. Probably true of any swing in any single local by-election. You have to aggregate over many by-elections and also factor in that Parties like the Lib Dems are much keener on by-election campaigning than others, especially near hotspots like Sheffield |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 13, 2021 0:10:51 GMT
This is an assessment of the turnouts of the 29 by-elections held so far in December compared to that the previous time the seat was contested. | Election date | Authority | Ward | Turnout | Previous
election | Turnout | Difference | Ratio | ME ratio | | 02 December | Adur | Hillside | 21.9% | May 2021 | 33.5% | -11.6% | 65% | 65% |
| Breckland | Hermitage | 23.4% | May 2019 | 37.1% | -13.7% | 63% | 69% |
| Highland | Fort William & Ardnamurchan | 25.6% | May 2017 | 48.4% | -22.8% | 53% | 55% |
| Lancaster | Bare | 23.5% | May 2019 | 39.2% | -15.7% | 60% | 52% / 58% |
| Lancaster | Upper Lune Valley | 31.7% | May 2019 | 47.7% | -16.0% | 66% | 68% |
| Newport | Victoria | 18.7% | May 2021 | 36.9% | -18.2% | 51% | 50% |
| North Norfolk | Stalham | 22.5% | May 2019 | 33.4% | -10.9% | 67% | 64% / 66% |
| Warwick | Whitnash | 20.6% | May 2019 | 32.5% | -11.9% | 63% | 50% / 56% |
| Wealden | Hartfield | 36.6% | May 2019 | 35.9% | +0.7% | 102% | 106% |
| Worthing | Marine | 37.4% | May 2021 | 47.0% | -9.6% | 80% | 80% | | 09 December | Bracknell Forest | Old Bracknell | 17.0% | May 2019 | 29.3% | -12.3% | 58% | 55% / 56% |
| Rotherham | Anston & Woodsetts | 28.0% | May 2021 | 38.4% | -10.4% | 73% | 52% / 59% |
| Rotherham | Aughton & Swallowfields | 19.9% | May 2021 | 27.2% | -7.3% | 73% | 63% / 69% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | Castle | 34.7% | May 2019 | 38.3% | -3.6% | 91% | 85% / 87% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | Kings Hill | 18.6% | May 2019 | 25.8% | -7.2% | 72% | 53% / 56% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | West Malling & Leybourne | 27.6% | May 2019 | 37.2% | -9.6% | 74% | 58% / 61% |
| Torridge | Northam | 24.5% | May 2019 | 40.2% | -15.7% | 61% | 51% / 57% | | 16 December | Argyll & Bute | Lomond North | 29.6% | May 2017 | 55.4% | -25.8% | 53% | 54% |
| Ashford | Highfield | 23.6% | May 2019 | 35.1% | -11.5% | 67% | 68% |
| Bridgend | Caerau | 21.9% | May 2017 | 30.0% est | -9.9% | 67% | 61% / 66% |
| Horsham | Rothley South | 22.8% | May 2019 | 28.1% | -5.3% | 81% | 82% / 85% |
| Lichfield | Armitage & Handsacre | 12.6% | May 2019 | 24.0% | -11.4% | 53% | 56% / 59% |
| Medway | Rochester East | 18.2% | May 2019 | 32.2% | -14.0% | 57% | 50% / 51% |
| Middlesbrough | North Ormesby | 13.3% | May 2019 | 29.7% | -16.4% | 45% | 44% |
| Northumberland | Hexham East | 34.5% | May 2021 | 44.5% | -10.0% | 78% | 79% |
| Telford | Dawley & Aqueduct | 26.3% | May 2021 | 37.3% | -11.0% | 71% | 69% |
| Walsall | Pleck | 10.6% est | May 2021 | 30.1% est | -19.5% | 35% | 35% |
| West Berkshire | Tilehurst South & Holybrook | 23.0% | May 2019 | 27.9% | -4.9% | 82% | 82% / 86% |
| West Lindsey | Nettleham | 32.0% | May 2019 | 37.9% | -5.9% | 84% | 90% / 97% |
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* The turnout is taken from the Authority declaration of the result and may not consistently reflect invalid / spoilt votes. - some authorities do not publish tornout figures, eg Walsall and Bridgend in 2017 * Some wards regularly poll much higher than others and the difference in turnout does not necessarily reflect this - the ratio of the two turnovers is a measure of the relative turnouts and is seen to compensate for the different tendencies to vote. * ME ratio forms part of my weekly tabulations and is the ratio of total votes at the by-election compared to "top" and "average" votes at the previous election - the ratio of average votes generally gives a good immediate indication of the relative turnouts but not so if there have been high votes for more than one independent in multi-member seats where it is not clear whether they are contesting as individuals or as some informal group. There is an obvious exception, Wealden: Hartfield, which proves the rule that turnouts in by-elections are normally lower that at annual elections. Twenty two of the twenty none by-elections saw the relative turnout to be below 75% - seventeen were below 70% - indicating a lower turnout than normal as experienced over a period of years. This may not be too surprising in December, where historically some exceptional results have also been seen. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 24, 2021 0:27:15 GMT
This is an assessment of the turnouts of the 30 by-elections held in December compared to that the previous time the seat was contested. | Election date | Authority | Ward | Turnout | Previous
election | Turnout | Difference | Ratio | ME ratio | | 02 December | Adur | Hillside | 21.9% | May 2021 | 33.5% | -11.6% | 65% | 65% |
| Breckland | Hermitage | 23.4% | May 2019 | 37.1% | -13.7% | 63% | 69% |
| Highland | Fort William & Ardnamurchan | 25.6% | May 2017 | 48.4% | -22.8% | 53% | 55% |
| Lancaster | Bare | 23.5% | May 2019 | 39.2% | -15.7% | 60% | 52% / 58% |
| Lancaster | Upper Lune Valley | 31.7% | May 2019 | 47.7% | -16.0% | 66% | 68% |
| Newport | Victoria | 18.7% | May 2021 | 36.9% | -18.2% | 51% | 50% |
| North Norfolk | Stalham | 22.5% | May 2019 | 33.4% | -10.9% | 67% | 64% / 66% |
| Warwick | Whitnash | 20.6% | May 2019 | 32.5% | -11.9% | 63% | 50% / 56% |
| Wealden | Hartfield | 36.6% | May 2019 | 35.9% | +0.7% | 102% | 106% |
| Worthing | Marine | 37.4% | May 2021 | 47.0% | -9.6% | 80% | 80% | | 09 December | Bracknell Forest | Old Bracknell | 17.0% | May 2019 | 29.3% | -12.3% | 58% | 55% / 56% |
| Rotherham | Anston & Woodsetts | 28.0% | May 2021 | 38.4% | -10.4% | 73% | 52% / 59% |
| Rotherham | Aughton & Swallowfields | 19.9% | May 2021 | 27.2% | -7.3% | 73% | 63% / 69% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | Castle | 34.7% | May 2019 | 38.3% | -3.6% | 91% | 85% / 87% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | Kings Hill | 18.6% | May 2019 | 25.8% | -7.2% | 72% | 53% / 56% |
| Tonbridge & Malling | West Malling & Leybourne | 27.6% | May 2019 | 37.2% | -9.6% | 74% | 58% / 61% |
| Torridge | Northam | 24.5% | May 2019 | 40.2% | -15.7% | 61% | 51% / 57% | | 16 December | Argyll & Bute | Lomond North | 29.6% | May 2017 | 55.4% | -25.8% | 53% | 54% |
| Ashford | Highfield | 23.6% | May 2019 | 35.1% | -11.5% | 67% | 68% |
| Bridgend | Caerau | 21.9% | May 2017 | 30.0% est | -9.9% | 67% | 61% / 66% |
| Horsham | Rothley South | 22.8% | May 2019 | 28.1% | -5.3% | 81% | 82% / 85% |
| Lichfield | Armitage & Handsacre | 12.6% | May 2019 | 24.0% | -11.4% | 53% | 56% / 59% |
| Medway | Rochester East | 18.2% | May 2019 | 32.2% | -14.0% | 57% | 50% / 51% |
| Middlesbrough | North Ormesby | 13.3% | May 2019 | 29.7% | -16.4% | 45% | 44% |
| Northumberland | Hexham East | 34.5% | May 2021 | 44.5% | -10.0% | 78% | 79% |
| Telford | Dawley & Aqueduct | 26.3% | May 2021 | 37.3% | -11.0% | 71% | 69% |
| Walsall | Pleck | 10.6% est | May 2021 | 30.1% est | -19.5% | 35% | 35% |
| West Berkshire | Tilehurst South & Holybrook | 23.0% | May 2019 | 27.9% | -4.9% | 82% | 82% / 86% |
| West Lindsey | Nettleham | 32.0% | May 2019 | 37.9% | -5.9% | 84% | 90% / 97% | | 23 December 2021 | New Forest | Bransgore & Burley | 31.1% | May 2019 | 33% | -1.9% | 94% | 100% / 102% |
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* The turnout is taken from the Authority declaration of the result and may not consistently reflect invalid / spoilt votes. - some authorities do not publish tornout figures, eg Walsall and Bridgend in 2017 * Some wards regularly poll much higher than others and the difference in turnout does not necessarily reflect this - the ratio of the two turnovers is a measure of the relative turnouts and is seen to compensate for the different tendencies to vote. * ME ratio forms part of my weekly tabulations and is the ratio of total votes at the by-election compared to "top" and "average" votes at the previous election - the ratio of average votes generally gives a good immediate indication of the relative turnouts but not so if there have been high votes for more than one independent in multi-member seats where it is not clear whether they are contesting as individuals or as some informal group. There is an obvious exception, Wealden: Hartfield, which proves the rule that turnouts in by-elections are normally lower that at annual elections. Twenty two of the thirty by-elections saw the relative turnout to be below 75% - seventeen were below 70% - indicating a lower turnout than normal as experienced over a period of years. This may not be too surprising in December, where historically some exceptional results have also been seen although the turnout in New Forest: Bransgore & Burley was close to the May 2019 level even though the election was two days before Christmas. |
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Post by listener on Dec 24, 2021 2:07:56 GMT
The turnout in Pleck is 10.6%. The electorate was 10,219.
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