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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2021 10:01:51 GMT
The Tories actually didn’t do too badly at all in Rotherham beneath the headline seat change. It’s just the highly fractured and volatile nature of the vote in Rotherham and the fact that Aughton & Swallownest was a split ward that did for them. Yes, as I said. Seats won at peak vaccine bounce too. However a lot of the Tory votes will have been postal and cast two weeks ago. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 10, 2021 10:07:00 GMT
Which constituency is Aughton & Swallownest in please? I've looked at the Wikipedia entries for all 3 Rotherham borough constituencies, and none of them claims to include that one.
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 10:08:35 GMT
Which constituency is Aughton & Swallownest in please? I've looked at the Wikipedia entries for all 3 Rotherham borough constituencies, and none of them claims to include that one. Rother Valley. The constituencies are based on the old wards. In terms of those, it's made up of bits of Holderness (Aughton) and Rother Vale (Ulley, rump Orgreave, Swallownest). |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 10, 2021 10:08:49 GMT
Surprised that the Rotherham Democratic Party did that poorly, I wasn't expecting much from them but that is really poor. I imagine they didn't bother to campaign, and I don't think they have much of a brand. Still, to get only 6 votes in Anston & Woodsetts is especially bad; did they need to get 10 signatures to stand, or is that still suspended? Also the previously successful Independent (Jepson) in Anston & Woodsetts did poorly. Yes, but to some extent both the indies and the RDP may have had inflated votes last time from split voting - people giving them a vote, but not necessarily as first choice. Still poor results, but maybe not quite as bad as at first glance. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 10, 2021 10:10:39 GMT
Which constituency is Aughton & Swallownest in please? I've looked at the Wikipedia entries for all 3 Rotherham borough constituencies, and none of them claims to include that one. Rother Valley. The constituencies are based on the old wards. In terms of those, it's made up of bits of Holderness and Rother Vale. thanks, that was my assumption. I'll definitely take a Labour gain in that constituency even if it was a split ward. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2021 10:26:22 GMT
Rother Valley. The constituencies are based on the old wards. In terms of those, it's made up of bits of Holderness and Rother Vale. thanks, that was my assumption. I'll definitely take a Labour gain in that constituency even if it was a split ward. And will you also take a Tory loss in Anston and Woodsetts? (BTW the answer to your question was in Andrew's previews as well) |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Dec 10, 2021 10:30:46 GMT
I did think the vote split in Aughton and Swallownest was very odd back in May. The top Labour candidate way out ahead, with the two Tories almost neck and neck and the second Labour candidate way behind. This by-election result is probably just a reflection of a more usual voting pattern in the ward.
More generally I don’t see much value psephologically in talking of seat gains and losses in split wards. Obviously it means something for council composition, but like with AV by-elections in Scotland it doesn’t give a very accurate picture of what the voters have done. Vote share change against top candidates is the only really useful metric.
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 10, 2021 10:38:11 GMT
thanks, that was my assumption. I'll definitely take a Labour gain in that constituency even if it was a split ward. And will you also take a Tory loss in Anston and Woodsetts? (BTW the answer to your question was in Andrew's previews as well) I am fairly relaxed about the Lib Dems winning Tory seats as a whole. It is no secret that I am not a major fan of their MO in my own borough of Richmond-upon-Thames. I'm pretty sure you will win North Shropshire now and I'm not upset about it, although I would definitely vote Labour if I had a vote there. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2021 10:45:53 GMT
And will you also take a Tory loss in Anston and Woodsetts? (BTW the answer to your question was in Andrew's previews as well) I am fairly relaxed about the Lib Dems winning Tory seats as a whole. It is no secret that I am not a major fan of their MO in my own borough of Richmond-upon-Thames. I'm pretty sure you will win North Shropshire now and I'm not upset about it, although I would definitely vote Labour if I had a vote there. Fair enough. I want to see the back of the Tories too, but as a Lib Dem Agent trying to save deposits I have voted Lib Dem twice in Dewsbury. In 2015 I did vote Labour in Pudsey, when I was not a Lib Dem member since I resigned in 2010 over the Pledge (not actually the tuition fee policy, although I did not like it, nor the coalition, which I thought necessary although very high risk, as it turned out |
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 10:47:11 GMT
I did think the vote split in Aughton and Swallownest was very odd back in May. The top Labour candidate way out ahead, with the two Tories almost neck and neck and the second Labour candidate way behind. This by-election result is probably just a reflection of a more usual voting pattern in the ward. More generally I don’t see much value psephologically in talking of seat gains and losses in split wards. Obviously it means something for council composition, but like with AV by-elections in Scotland it doesn’t give a very accurate picture of what the voters have done. Vote share change against top candidates is the only really useful metric. The top Labour candidate in May was also well ahead of the rest of the Labour slate in the old Holderness ward in 2016, including yesterday's winner (who was defeated in May in the other successor ward, Aston & Todwick). So it looks like there is a personal vote there. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 11:18:36 GMT
Tonbridge & Malling, Castle
Green 731
Con 454
Lab 48
Green gain from Con
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Terry Weldon
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Post by Terry Weldon on Dec 10, 2021 11:31:17 GMT
So that's four results so far. Four Con defences, four Con losses.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2021 11:42:34 GMT
Tonbridge & Malling, Castle Green 731 Con 454 Lab 48 Green gain from Con We should have stood.. Was there a deal?? |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 10, 2021 11:45:03 GMT
So that's four results so far. Four Con defences, four Con losses. Always nice to see, but repeating what has already been said, I hope people don't see this as "partygate" effect. I think all 4 of them were already lost to the Tories before the events of the last week. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 10, 2021 11:47:40 GMT
So that's four results so far. Four Con defences, four Con losses. Always nice to see, but repeating what has already been said, I hope people don't see this as "partygate" effect. I think all 4 of them were already lost to the Tories before the events of the last week. Twitter will see it as party gate! Every one of those would have been lost if held in October in my opinion. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 10, 2021 11:50:29 GMT
The Tories actually didn’t do too badly at all in Rotherham beneath the headline seat change. It’s just the highly fractured and volatile nature of the vote in Rotherham and the fact that Aughton & Swallownest was a split ward that did for them. Maybe not a surprise that the Tory vote is a bit "stickier" in places where they did notably well in 2019. The question now may be if those voters are more loyal to "Boris" than the party, and the arising possibility that replacing him wins back some support in certain areas but loses it in others. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 11:58:04 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet.
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 10, 2021 12:03:24 GMT
Tonbridge & Malling, Castle Green 731 Con 454 Lab 48 Green gain from Con We should have stood.. Was there a deal?? We had 3 byelections in T&M on the same day so it might have been a good idea to concentrate on the other two. Whether it was or not we may find out very shortly... |
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 12:10:17 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 10, 2021 12:11:18 GMT
random tweet suggesting this is the result for Kings Hill
TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Kings Hill
HARMAN, Dan Roger (Conservative) 740
WESTLAKE, Louis (Independent) 316
ZAHIDI, Raja (Liberal Democrat) 191
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