Local Council by-elections 9th December 2021

[Tony Otim]

7 seats across 4 councils this week, although Rotherham seem to be hogging most of the candidates:

BRACKNELL FOREST UA; Old Bracknell (Ind Con elected as Con resigned)
Candidates:
BIDWELL, Paul Steven (Labour)
McCRACKEN, Iain Alexander (Conservative)

2019: Con 626, 569; Lab 493, 485; LD 180
2015: Con 1191, 1087; Lab 819, 797; UKIP 461, 406; TUSC 68, 62
2011: Con 824, 784; Lab 774, 735
2007:Lab 672, 668; Con 600, 598; LD 171
2003: Lab 628, 624; Con 565, 534; LD 126; Grn 79

Iain McCracken is the former Conservative councillor for the ward (2011-2019). He did not restand in 2019.

Current Council: Con 37; Lab 3; LD 1; 1 vacancy



ROTHERHAM MBC; Anston & Woodsetts (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COWLES, Allen (Rotherham Democratic Party)
FOULSTONE, David (Green)
IRELAND, Jonathan Charles (Independent)
JEPSON, Clive Robert (Independent)
KNIGHT, Adrian John (Conservative)
TARMEY, Drew Simon (Liberal Democrat)
TWEED, Simon Andrew (Labour)
WHITWOOD, Chris (Yorkshire Party)

2021: Con 1491, 1341, 1020; LD 1005, 786, 522; Lab 906, 744, 461; Ind 737, 535; Grn 375; Workers Party 47

In May this year, David Foulstone was the Green candidate, Jonathan Ireland the Independent who got 535 votes and Clive Jepson the one who got 737, Drew Tarmey was the top Lib Dem who missed out by 15 votes and Simon Tweed was the second Labour candidate. Clive Jepson had been previous Independent councillor for the old Anston & Woodsetts Ward (2012-2021), whilst Jonathan Ireland had been elected for Labour in the same ward in 2016. Simon Tweed is a former Labour councillor for Dinnington ward on old boundaries.



ROTHERHAM MBC; Aughton & Swallownest (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BANNAN, Dennis Chad (Yorkshire Party)
BARKER, Louisa Kathryn (Green)
LAMBERT, Mark (Liberal Democrat)
MARSHALL, Paul (TUSC)
MITCHELL, Julia Helen (Conservative)
SHAWCROFT, Gavin Peter (Rotherham Democratic Party)
TAYLOR, Robert Paul (Labour)

2021: Lab 817, 503; Con 666, 625; Rotherham DP 341; Workers Party 136; LD 107


Mark Lambert was the Lib Dem candidate here this May. Robert Taylor was formerly Labour councillor for the old Holderness ward (2016-2021) (which was split between this ward and Aston & Todwick – he stood unsuccessfully in Aston & Todwick in May).

Current Council: Lab 32; Con 18; LD 3; Rotherham Democratic Party 3; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Castle (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COPE, Anne Victoria (Green)
ISLAM, Johurul (Conservative)
WILSON, Julian Thomas (Labour)

2019: Con 640, 623; LD 342; Grn 338, 323; Lab 129, 92
2015: Con 1485, 1392; Grn 787; LD 751

Julian Wilson was the second Labour candidate in 2019.



TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Kings Hill (Con disqualified)
Candidates:
HARMAN, Dan Roger (Conservative)
WESTLAKE, Louis (Independent)
ZAHIDI, Raja (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Con 887, 770, 672; Ind 651, 474; LD 344, 269
2015: Con 2719, 2044, 1855; UKIP 843; Ind 747; Lab 673

Raja Zahidi stood with No Description in Malling Rural East division (which contains this ward) in May and Louis Westlake stood as in Independent at the same time (they came 5th and 6th respectively)



TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; West Malling & Leybourne (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BOXALL, Paul Andrew (Liberal Democrat)
MAHONEY, Jordan Patrick (Green)
POTTER, Robin Jasper (Labour)
THOMPSON, David Richard William (Conservative)

2019: Con 833, 743, 715; LD 739, 661, 608; Ind 613, 393; Lab 138
2015: Con 1608, 1524, 1468; UKIP 761; LD 671, 612, 578; Ind 552, 377, 334; Lab 395; Grn 335

The Lib Dem elected here in 2019 has subsequently defected to the Greens. David Thompson stood unsuccessfully for the Conservatives in Malling Central division (which contains this ward) in May.

Current Council: Con 36; LD 8; Grn 3; Independent Alliance (Kent) 3; Lab 1; 3 vacancies



TORRIDGE DC; Northam (Ind disqualified)
Candidates:
LO-VEL, Wendy (Green)
NEWMAN-McKIE, Sam (Liberal Democrat)
RADFORD, Jen (Labour)
TENNANT, Timothy (No Description)
WOODHOUSE, Carrie Anne (Conservative)

2019: Ind 783, 602, 593; Con 381, 372, 296; UKIP 305; LD 255; Lab 214, 209, 175

Current CouncIl: Ind 17; Con 10; Lab 3; Grn 2; LD 2; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy

[East Anglian Lefty]

Are the Rotheram Democratic Party a UKIP splinter or a generic grouping of independents?

[minionofmidas]

Some of this sounds like it'll make for a highly entertaining preview!

[iain]

Nov 15, 2021 16:34:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Are the Rotheram Democratic Party a UKIP splinter or a generic grouping of independents?

A UKIP splinter.

[timrollpickering]

Their leader Allen Cowles (standing in Anston & Woodsetts) went via the Brexit Party and was their candidate in Rother Valley in 2019 as well as a councillor for Sitwell ward from 2014 to 2021 (not sitting so well as he changed parties twice). Their logo includes a triangle pointing to the right. Gavin Shawcroft (standing in Aughton & Swallownest) also stood in Sitwell in May and came bottom of the poll with less than half of Cowles's total. That three member ward had a congested result with one party taking first, second & fifth place, another third, sixth & seventh plus solo candidates for the Greens, Lib Dems and an Independent all complicating matters.

[YL]

Nov 15, 2021 16:47:04 GMT iain said:

Nov 15, 2021 16:34:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Are the Rotheram Democratic Party a UKIP splinter or a generic grouping of independents?

A UKIP splinter.

... but one of their councillors (Ian Jones in Rotherham West ward) came from Labour.

[andrewteale]

Nov 15, 2021 16:24:00 GMT Tony Otim said:

ROTHERHAM MBC; Anston & Woodsetts (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COWLES, Allen (Rotherham Democratic Party)
FOULSTONE, David (Green)
IRELAND, Jonathan Charles (Independent)
JEPSON, Clive Robert (Independent)
KNIGHT, Adrian John (Conservative)
TARMEY, Drew Simon (Liberal Democrat)
TWEED, Simon Andrew (Labour)
WHITWOOD, Chris (Yorkshire Party)

2021: Con 1491, 1341, 1020; LD 1005, 786, 522; Lab 906, 744, 461; Ind 737, 535; Grn 375; Workers Party 47

In May this year, David Foulstone was the Green candidate, Jonathan Ireland the Independent who got 535 votes and Clive Jepson the one who got 737, Drew Tarmey was the top Lib Dem who missed out by 15 votes and Simon Tweed was the second Labour candidate. Clive Jepson had been previous Independent councillor for the old Anston & Woodsetts Ward (2012-2021), whilst Jonathan Ireland had been elected for Labour in the same ward in 2016. Simon Tweed is a former Labour councillor for Dinnington ward on old boundaries.

This is presumably the Chris Whitwood who used to be leader of the Yorkshire Party. He was the Yorkshire Party candidate for Mayor of Doncaster in 2017 and contested Doncaster's Town ward in 2017, a 2018 by-election and 2021.

[redvers]

The Old Bracknell by-election is the first competitive Con-Lab by-election in Bracknell Forest since 2002.

[redvers]

Palpable sense the Tories are worried about Old Bracknell, Labour needs a 5.2% swing to win.

[shadsy]

Aughton & Swallownest is the Smarkets feature this week:
smarkets.com/event/42504701/politics/uk/by-elections/aughton-swallownest-by-election

[tonyhill]

I presume that the Sam Newman-McKie who is standing for the LibDems in Torridge is the former councillor for Whiteley on Winchester City Council.

[jamesdoyle]

Importance Index for this week:

	Con	Lab	LDm	Grn
Bracknell Forest (Old Bracknell)	51	27	10
Rotherham (Anston & Woodsetts)	65	36	26	23
Rotherham (Aughton & Swallownest)	52	58	18	13
Tonbridge & Malling (Castle)	56	8	17	17
Tonbridge & Malling (Kings Hill)	56		14
Tonbridge & Malling (West Malling & Leybourne)	51	9	30	4
Torridge (Northam)	28	21	25	14
Average	51	26	20	14
Total	359	159	140	71

Not quite as big in total as last week for the Cons, but slightly higher on average. All the other parties have a similar average to last week.

[redvers]

Dec 7, 2021 12:05:00 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Importance Index for this week:

	Con	Lab	LDm	Grn
Bracknell Forest (Old Bracknell)	51	27	10
Rotherham (Anston & Woodsetts)	65	36	26	23
Rotherham (Aughton & Swallownest)	52	58	18	13
Tonbridge & Malling (Castle)	56	8	17	17
Tonbridge & Malling (Kings Hill)	56		14
Tonbridge & Malling (West Malling & Leybourne)	51	9	30	4
Torridge (Northam)	28	21	25	14
Average	51	26	20	14
Total	359	159	140	71

Not quite as big in total as last week for the Cons, but slightly higher on average. All the other parties have a similar average to last week.

How did you arrive at the figures for Old Bracknell?  Don't look right to me...

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2021 14:06:21 GMT redvers said:

Dec 7, 2021 12:05:00 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Importance Index for this week:

	Con	Lab	LDm	Grn
Bracknell Forest (Old Bracknell)	51	27	10
Rotherham (Anston & Woodsetts)	65	36	26	23
Rotherham (Aughton & Swallownest)	52	58	18	13
Tonbridge & Malling (Castle)	56	8	17	17
Tonbridge & Malling (Kings Hill)	56		14
Tonbridge & Malling (West Malling & Leybourne)	51	9	30	4
Torridge (Northam)	28	21	25	14
Average	51	26	20	14
Total	359	159	140	71

Not quite as big in total as last week for the Cons, but slightly higher on average. All the other parties have a similar average to last week.

How did you arrive at the figures for Old Bracknell?  Don't look right to me...

Presumably because of the overall party strengths in Bracknell Forest council 

[jamesdoyle]

Dec 7, 2021 14:06:21 GMT redvers said:

Dec 7, 2021 12:05:00 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Importance Index for this week:

	Con	Lab	LDm	Grn
Bracknell Forest (Old Bracknell)	51	27	10
Rotherham (Anston & Woodsetts)	65	36	26	23
Rotherham (Aughton & Swallownest)	52	58	18	13
Tonbridge & Malling (Castle)	56	8	17	17
Tonbridge & Malling (Kings Hill)	56		14
Tonbridge & Malling (West Malling & Leybourne)	51	9	30	4
Torridge (Northam)	28	21	25	14
Average	51	26	20	14
Total	359	159	140	71

Not quite as big in total as last week for the Cons, but slightly higher on average. All the other parties have a similar average to last week.

How did you arrive at the figures for Old Bracknell?  Don't look right to me...

Yes, as @europeanlefty suggests, Labour have a lower index because of the low overall strength on the council - but higher than the LibDems because of past voting patterns in the ward. None of the scores, even the Cons, are particularly high because of the big Con majority. Does that make sense? Or am I missing what you're driving at?

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 7, 2021 15:53:11 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Dec 7, 2021 14:06:21 GMT redvers said:

How did you arrive at the figures for Old Bracknell?  Don't look right to me...

Yes, as @europeanlefty suggests, Labour have a lower index because of the low overall strength on the council - but higher than the LibDems because of past voting patterns in the ward. None of the scores, even the Cons, are particularly high because of the big Con majority. Does that make sense? Or am I missing what you're driving at?

To be perfectly frank, if Harry Hayfield had come up with this system it would make more sense

[jamesdoyle]

Dec 7, 2021 15:59:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 7, 2021 15:53:11 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Yes, as @europeanlefty suggests, Labour have a lower index because of the low overall strength on the council - but higher than the LibDems because of past voting patterns in the ward. None of the scores, even the Cons, are particularly high because of the big Con majority. Does that make sense? Or am I missing what you're driving at?

To be perfectly frank, if Harry Hayfield had come up with this system it would make more sense

Well, you could just block me. Or you could suggest how you think it should be done.

[tonyhill]

Keep at it James - I am finding it interesting and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Just because it's a new way of looking at things doesn't mean that it is valueless. I did laugh at Pete Whitehead's comment though.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I think it's a decent enough measurement of how excited/disappointed a local activist from a given party will be at the result on Friday morning.

[jamesdoyle]

Dec 7, 2021 17:28:35 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I think it's a decent enough measurement of how excited/disappointed a local activist from a given party will be at the result on Friday morning.

Well, that's not a bad description of what I'm aiming for! It is useful to have comments like that from redvers above, because if someone local is finding something odd about my results it means it's worth looking at again to see if I'm doing something wrong. So I'm very happy to have that.