The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 10, 2021 12:11:46 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. To state the obvious, that's a big drop for the non-party candidate. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 10, 2021 12:17:10 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2021 12:19:14 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. Vote Green get Tory, in this particular case |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 10, 2021 12:21:17 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. I can't even be bothered to read all the inevitable 'Progressive Alliance' replies to that Tweet.. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 10, 2021 12:24:51 GMT
That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. Vote Green get Tory, in this particular case Way to sound like the Labour Party. Virtually identical Lib Dem and Green votes but hey only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Dec 10, 2021 12:28:42 GMT
random tweet suggesting this is the result for Kings Hill TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Kings Hill HARMAN, Dan Roger (Conservative) 740 WESTLAKE, Louis (Independent) 316 ZAHIDI, Raja (Liberal Democrat) 191 Councillor elect? What? |
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Post by phil156 on Dec 10, 2021 12:47:57 GMT
One more to come I think
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Dec 10, 2021 13:04:40 GMT
Tories won Torridge, Northam according to a tweet from Geoffrey Cox MP. I haven't seen any numbers yet. That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. Here's another proposition   |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Dec 10, 2021 13:16:29 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 10, 2021 13:23:43 GMT
Vote Green get Tory, in this particular case Way to sound like the Labour Party. Virtually identical Lib Dem and Green votes but hey only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here. On the other hand, had we stood a spoiler candidate in Tonbridge Castle ( where incidentaly we were a similar handful of votes ahead of the Greens last time) and that had resulted in a Tory hold rather than a Green gain, how would you have reacted? |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Dec 10, 2021 13:27:08 GMT
What would really worry me if I was on the blue team, was that in all their defences, the opposition lined up neatly behind the candidate best placed to beat them. Mostly with other candidates on the ballot paper, but either the local parties or the voters or both showed a greater awareness than usual of how best to vote to defeat the Tories. Even in the one they won, there was a clear challenger and they needed over 50% to hold. If that emerges as a theme it's real trouble for Tory defences coming up.
The exception of course in Torridge, where the opposition tripped over each other. Not a Con defence of course, which may actually have helped, or maybe the good folk of Northam really like deep voices with all year round tans? Or dogs!
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Post by andrewp on Dec 10, 2021 13:34:31 GMT
That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. Here's another proposition something that Twitter will never understand- sometimes the Conservatives do have candidates with a local appeal/ popularity. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 10, 2021 13:35:34 GMT
Bracknell Forest: Old Bracknell - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 434 | 61.1% | +23.2% | +22.5% | +28.9% | +28.1% | | Conservative | 276
| 38.9% | -9.3% | -8.3% | -8.0% | -7.7% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -13.9% | -14.2% |
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| | UKIP |
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| -18.2% | -17.7% | | TUSC |
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| -2.7% | -2.7% | | Total votes | 710 |
| 55% | 56% | 28% | 29% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 16¼ / 15½% since 2019 and 18½% / 18% since 2015 Council now: 37 Conservative, 4 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat Rotherham: Anston & Woodsetts - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,016 | 38.6% | +18.9% | +21.3% | | Conservative | 686 | 26.1% | -3.2% | -2.8% | | Labour | 533 | 20.3% | +2.5% | +4.5% | | Independent Jepson | 189 | 7.2% | -7.3% | -9.4% | | Independent Ireland | 118 | 4.5% | -6.0% | -7.5% | | Green | 63 | 2.4% | -5.0% | -6.0% | | Yorkshire | 20 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Rotherham Democratic | 6 | 0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Workers |
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| -0.9% | -1.1% | | Total votes | 2,631 |
| 52% | 59% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11% / 12% since May Council now: 33 Labour, 18 Conservatives, 4 Liberal democrat, 3 Rotherham Democrats, 1 Independent Rotherham: Aughton & Swallownest - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Labour | 645 | 49.8% | +10.2% | +14.8% | | Conservative | 496 | 38.3% | +6.1% | +4.1% | | Green | 59 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Yorkshire | 35 | 2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC | 32 | 2.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Rotherham Democratic | 15 | 1.2% | -15.3% | -16.9% | | Liberal Democratic | 14 | 1.1% | -4.1% | -4.6% | | Workers |
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| -6.6% | -7.2% | | Total votes | 1,296 |
| 63% | 69% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 2% / 5¼% since May Council now: 33 Labour, 18 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrats, 3 Rotherham Democrats, 1 Independent Tonbridge & Malling: Castle - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Green | 731 | 59.3% | +36.0% | +35.9% | +33.3% | +32.8% | | Conservative | 454 | 36.8% | -7.3% | -7.8% | -12.3% | -11.5% | | Labour | 48 | 3.9% | -5.0% | -3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -23.6% | -24.2% | -24.8% | -25.2% | | Total votes | 1,233 |
| 85% | 87% | 48% | Row 6 column 7 |
Swing: Conservative to Green 21¾% since 2019 and 22¾% / 22¼% since 2015 Council now: 37 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 3 Independent Alliance, 1 Labour Tonbridge & Malling: Kings Hill - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 740 | 59.3% | +21.7% | +24.2% | +4.8% | +10.0% | | Independent | 316 | 25.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 191 | 15.3% | +0.7% | +1.4% | +15.3% | +15.3% | | Independent Barker |
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| -27.6% | -29.5% |
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| | Independent Waller |
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| -20.1% | -21.5% | -15.0% | -16.7% | | UKIP |
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| -16.9% | -18.9% | | Labour |
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| -13.5% | -15.1% | | Total votes | 1,247 |
| 53% | 56% | 25% | 28% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 37 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 3 Independent Alliance, 1 Labour Tonbridge & Malling: West Malling & Leybourne - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 776 | 49.6% | +22.3% | +23.6% | +36.2% | +36.9% | | Conservative | 624 | 39.8% | +9.2% | +10.2% | +7.9% | +8.6% | | Green | 137 | 8.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +2.1% | +1.9% | | Labour | 29 | 1.9% | -3.2% | -3.5% | -6.0% | -6.2% | | Independent Ulph |
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| -22.6% | -23.8% | -11.0% | -11.2% | | Independent Harrison |
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| -14.5% | -15.3% |
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| -15.1% | -15.5% | | Independent Chapple |
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| -7.5% | -7.7% | | Independent Mearns |
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| -6.6% | -6.8% | | Total votes | 1,566 |
| 58% | 61% | 31% | 32% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6½% / 6¾% since 2019 and, if particularly meaningful, 14¼% since 2015 Council now: 37 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 3 Independent Alliance, 1 Labour Torridge: Northam - Conservative gain from Independent| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 386 | 38.7% | +19.1% | +18.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 230 | 23.1% | +9.9% | +8.5% | | Green | 224 | 22.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 103 | 10.3% | -0.7% | -1.1% | | No Description | 54 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Elected Independents |
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| -40.4% | -36.6% | | UKIP |
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| -15.7% | -17.4% | | Independent |
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| | Total votes | 997 |
| 51% | 57% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 17 Independent, 11 Conservative, 3 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Non-aligned
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 10, 2021 13:52:19 GMT
something that Twitter will never understand- sometimes the Conservatives do have candidates with a local appeal/ popularity. As very much seen in the Newcastle u-L result just a few weeks ago. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 10, 2021 14:03:06 GMT
something that Twitter will never understand- sometimes the Conservatives do have candidates with a local appeal/ popularity. As very much seen in the Newcastle u-L result just a few weeks ago. And in North Norfolk last week. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 10, 2021 14:10:19 GMT
That’s 2 Conservative by election gains in that constituency since Geoffrey Cox was the news. Obviously a ringing endorsement for him. Here's another proposition Has Boris got a name for his baby daughter yet? He does now.. |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 10, 2021 14:30:52 GMT
Here's another proposition something that Twitter will never understand- sometimes the Conservatives do have candidates with a local appeal/ popularity. Yes, amazing. Local elections have local features including recognisable individuals with their own merits. When I was a councillor it pained me to hear people seeming to regard them as mini opinion polls. Of course national politics have a substantial bearing but quality candidates, of all parties, can get past that particularly in smaller wards based around identifiable communities. |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 10, 2021 14:56:40 GMT
random tweet suggesting this is the result for Kings Hill TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Kings Hill HARMAN, Dan Roger (Conservative) 740 WESTLAKE, Louis (Independent) 316 ZAHIDI, Raja (Liberal Democrat) 191 I hope I'm not the only one that misread that tweet as saying "Dan Hannan"? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2021 15:36:26 GMT
What would really worry me if I was on the blue team, was that in all their defences, the opposition lined up neatly behind the candidate best placed to beat them. Mostly with other candidates on the ballot paper, but either the local parties or the voters or both showed a greater awareness than usual of how best to vote to defeat the Tories. Even in the one they won, there was a clear challenger and they needed over 50% to hold. If that emerges as a theme it's real trouble for Tory defences coming up. The exception of course in Torridge, where the opposition tripped over each other. Not a Con defence of course, which may actually have helped, or maybe the good folk of Northam really like deep voices with all year round tans? Or dogs! Northam is an area I have a passing familiarity with, and I suspect that party labels probably had very little to do with the result. IIt's also an area where if people feel they're expected to do something, they'll make a point of doing the exact opposite |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 10, 2021 15:49:55 GMT
Aughton & Swallownest (Rotherham) by-election: LAB: 49.8% (+10.2) CON: 38.3% (+6.1) GRN: 4.6% (+4.6) YORK: 2.7% (+2.7) TUSC: 2.5% (+2.5) RDP: 1.2% (-15.3) LDEM: 1.1% (-4.1) Labour GAIN from Conservative. Votes: 1,296 For febrile and difficult times for each of the majors this is quite a minor change in the shakeout of 15% from a localist party. Not of itself a major worry for the Conservatives. A 4% differential in the shakeout to the benefit of Labour. Hardly earthshaking. |
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