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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2023 9:54:42 GMT
On Lula being a target for Milei, it is also worth noting that Milei was a target for Lula. Lula and the Peronists are old friends and the entire Lula re-election team have been working for Massa since the summer.
Also worth noting that Lula didn't actually mention Milei by name in his comments.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2023 10:00:46 GMT
And on a related note, the Kremlin has responded by saying that they "take note of Milei's opinions on Russia". He's not a fan.
Presumably China won't be delighted either as they won't get their naval base.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 20, 2023 10:41:14 GMT
On Lula being a target for Milei, it is also worth noting that Milei was a target for Lula. Lula and the Peronists are old friends and the entire Lula re-election team have been working for Massa since the summer. Also worth noting that Lula didn't actually mention Milei by name in his comments. No. But compared to some reactions he was positive. He was hardly going to celebrate. I’m not sure that Milei will appreciate Trump’s remarks. He’s got to deal with the US as it is now and Trump painting him as a blood brother isn’t helpful. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:12:00 GMT
On Lula being a target for Milei, it is also worth noting that Milei was a target for Lula. Lula and the Peronists are old friends and the entire Lula re-election team have been working for Massa since the summer. Also worth noting that Lula didn't actually mention Milei by name in his comments. No. But compared to some reactions he was positive. He was hardly going to celebrate. I’m not sure that Milei will appreciate Trump’s remarks. He’s got to deal with the US as it is now and Trump painting him as a blood brother isn’t helpful. I’m pretty sure that Milei is on record stating his admiration of Trump. He’s a pro-American leader in an ocean of pro-China ones, so the Biden admin is going to have to positively engage with him. As long as he doesn’t try to turn into a dictator, I expect them to get along just fine. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:16:23 GMT
The comments of the far-left Gustavo Petro were typically boorish and disgraceful I thought. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see what happens here, and if Millei keeps his promise to anchor Argentina in the broadly Western Atlanto-Pacific community. fun fact, one of the reasons Trump made such big inroads with Colombian Americans (no just in Florida btw), was Petro’s (rather stupid) public endorsement of Biden. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438 
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Post by iain on Nov 20, 2023 11:21:54 GMT
The comments of the far-left Gustavo Petro were typically boorish and disgraceful I thought. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see what happens here, and if Millei keeps his promise to anchor Argentina in the broadly Western Atlanto-Pacific community. fun fact, one of the main reasons Trump made such big inroads with Colombian Americans (no just in Florida btw), was Petro’s (rather stupid) public endorsement of Biden. Conjecture rather than fact methinks  |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:28:30 GMT
fun fact, one of the main reasons Trump made such big inroads with Colombian Americans (no just in Florida btw), was Petro’s (rather stupid) public endorsement of Biden. Conjecture rather than fact methinks actually, no. I’ve read a couple of articles in 2020/2021 (most of them from credible sources and not some underlies right wing site) of Colombians saying that one of the main reasons they voted for Trump was that they started to be scared that Biden was pro-farc or a socialist after Petro endorsed him. I definitely should change it to one of the reasons rather than one of the main reasons though… |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:35:13 GMT
Conjecture rather than fact methinks actually, no. I’ve read a couple of articles in 2020/2021 (most of them from credible sources and not some underlies right wing site) of Colombians saying that one of the main reasons they voted for Trump was that they started to be scared that Biden was pro-farc or a socialist after Petro endorsed him. I definitely should change it to one of the reasons rather than one of the main reasons though… If I remember correctly, it was 2 Miami Herald articles and one from NYT. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 20, 2023 11:37:08 GMT
Conjecture rather than fact methinks actually, no. I’ve read a couple of articles in 2020/2021 (most of them from credible sources and not some underlies right wing site) of Colombians saying that one of the main reasons they voted for Trump was that they started to be scared that Biden was pro-farc or a socialist after Petro endorsed him. I definitely should change it to one of the reasons rather than one of the main reasons though… I don't think there's any evidence that Colombian Americans swung pro-Trump more than other Hispanics (in fact I seem to remember that they had a lower swing than average, though any evidence either way is likely to be sketchy), and I don't think a couple of anecdotes really qualify as much on which to base the idea that a major swing was down to Petro. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:41:02 GMT
actually, no. I’ve read a couple of articles in 2020/2021 (most of them from credible sources and not some underlies right wing site) of Colombians saying that one of the main reasons they voted for Trump was that they started to be scared that Biden was pro-farc or a socialist after Petro endorsed him. I definitely should change it to one of the reasons rather than one of the main reasons though… I don't think there's any evidence that Colombian Americans swung pro-Trump more than other Hispanics (in fact I seem to remember that they had a lower swing than average, though any evidence either way is likely to be sketchy), and I don't think a couple of anecdotes really qualify as much on which to base the idea that a major swing was down to Petro. if you look at areas that are heavily Colombian compared to non-Colombian Hispanic areas, the swing is lower than in Venezuelan, and Cuban, but higher than the rest. (using cinyc ancectral map and DRA2020’s political data). I could be wrong, but I believe Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (former Colombian American congresswoman who lost her seat in 2020) said the same thing about the Petro effect. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 20, 2023 11:51:07 GMT
No. But compared to some reactions he was positive. He was hardly going to celebrate. I’m not sure that Milei will appreciate Trump’s remarks. He’s got to deal with the US as it is now and Trump painting him as a blood brother isn’t helpful. I’m pretty sure that Milei is on record stating his admiration of Trump. He’s a pro-American leader in an ocean of pro-China ones, so the Biden admin is going to have to positively engage with him. As long as he doesn’t try to turn into a dictator, I expect them to get along just fine. Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 11:53:42 GMT
I’m pretty sure that Milei is on record stating his admiration of Trump. He’s a pro-American leader in an ocean of pro-China ones, so the Biden admin is going to have to positively engage with him. As long as he doesn’t try to turn into a dictator, I expect them to get along just fine. Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. I think you misunderstood me, I’ll be shocked if he’ll talk enthusiastically about Trump once he’s president. I’m talking about Biden not being vindictive toward him for past statements. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 20, 2023 12:05:26 GMT
Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. I think you misunderstood me, I’ll be shocked if he’ll talk enthusiastically about Trump once he’s president. I’m talking about Biden not being vindictive toward him for past statements. I'm sure that Biden won't be. He's an experienced (!) politician who knows very well that people say all sorts of things on the campaign trail (particularly if they are naïve to politics). But Milei will certainly need US help so the relationship isn't quite as your words implied. And if he has a link to Trump he might ask privately (but unavailingly...) for some quiet from that direction! |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 12:11:03 GMT
I think you misunderstood me, I’ll be shocked if he’ll talk enthusiastically about Trump once he’s president. I’m talking about Biden not being vindictive toward him for past statements. I'm sure that Biden won't be. He's an experienced (!) politician who knows very well that people say all sorts of things on the campaign trail (particularly if they are naïve to politics). But Milei will certainly need US help so the relationship isn't quite as your words implied. And if he has a link to Trump he might ask privately (but unavailingly...) for some quiet from that direction! Argentina obviously needs America, but America also needs allies in South America to counter China, and a Milei led Argentina seems like an excellent candidate. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2023 12:14:20 GMT
I’m pretty sure that Milei is on record stating his admiration of Trump. He’s a pro-American leader in an ocean of pro-China ones, so the Biden admin is going to have to positively engage with him. As long as he doesn’t try to turn into a dictator, I expect them to get along just fine. Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. I'd be shocked if there weren't channels between Biden and Milei already. It was notable that almost the first figure to congratulate him was Zelenskyy. Of course, he can't go ahead with his dollarisation plans anyway because Fernández and Massa haven't left any behind! He'll probably go for some fairly orthodox stuff that will get through the Congress with wider support. Such as abolishing the fifteen peso exchange rates. And of course bringing back income tax - there's a sentence nobody ever thought they'd use. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2023 12:17:05 GMT
Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. I'd be shocked if there weren't channels between Biden and Milei already. It was notable that almost the first figure to congratulate him was Zelenskyy. Of course, he can't go ahead with his dollarisation plans anyway because Fernández and Massa haven't left any behind! He'll probably go for some fairly orthodox stuff that will get through the Congress with wider support. Such as abolishing the fifteen peso exchange rates. And of course bringing back income tax - there's a sentence nobody ever thought they'd use. A lot of free trade deals as well. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2023 12:20:26 GMT
Still pretty remarkable that he won after his Thatcher friendly and Falklands pragmatic comments. Things must have been even worse than most outsiders thought.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 20, 2023 12:26:37 GMT
Yes. In his early phase he expressed Trump enthusiasm. But once he was in the run off he dialled back the hyperbole a fair bit. He’ll need US support (as opposed to your model in which Biden appears curiously to be the supplicant?) so enthusiastic backing for Trump or from him won’t be useful in that context. Of course this is based on an assumption that he’ll behave in at least a slightly more orthodox way than his chainsaw and “blow up the bank” early image…. I'd be shocked if there weren't channels between Biden and Milei already. It was notable that almost the first figure to congratulate him was Zelenskyy. Of course, he can't go ahead with his dollarisation plans anyway because Fernández and Massa haven't left any behind! He'll probably go for some fairly orthodox stuff that will get through the Congress with wider support. Such as abolishing the fifteen peso exchange rates. And of course bringing back income tax - there's a sentence nobody ever thought they'd use. Indeed. No rational US leader would be an enthusiast for the defeated candidate and his immediate supporters so some channels ought to have been open. Their only merit would be certainty - more of the same and ruinous economics. And he will have to take pragmatic steps of the kind you suggest. His problem, shared by all politicians who campaign this way, will be to manage the expectations of his supporters who have been hyped by his extreme statements. So he'll need at least some "red meat". Initially that could be an anti-corruption drive with some high-profile targets provided he's got the justice system sufficiently onside to attempt that. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2023 12:34:15 GMT
Still pretty remarkable that he won after his Thatcher friendly and Falklands pragmatic comments. Things must have been even worse than most outsiders thought. Possibly good politics. It draws a line between the obvious junta junkies that he's associated with, and of course with the sabre-rattling that the K gang liked to indulge in every time they were on the back foot. Influence of Macri? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2023 12:37:29 GMT
matureleft, an anti-corruption drive would be a solid idea. And one where he could put feelers out to Massa, and probably will. There are plenty of egregious examples, most of whom are people that Massa doesn't like either. Leave the Massa lot alone, or even let them have a few targets. Let justice run its course where it hasn't been allowed to. And cut state funding bit by bit to the most dreadful of the Kirchnerite mobs, starting with the football ones.
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