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Post by batman on Jun 27, 2024 7:54:03 GMT
Unlike Harry I think we can rule it out. You can't get above-average swings in a usually very safe Tory seat without a very strong campaign, and Labour will not be engaging in a campaign here. Labour is also pretty weak in the non-Ipswich wards. Their party workers will be mostly out in Ipswich where there is quite strong animus against Tom Hunt even by the standards of normal Labour Party attitudes towards defending Tory MPs. There won't be a by-election because this will be a notional Conservative hold. I think that most of the other Suffolk seats will be too, the exceptions being Lowestoft which I fancy Labour to gain, and the cross-county-boundary Waveney Valley where I think the Greens will get it. However a Labour gain of one of the other seats is not impossible with Bury St Edmunds perhaps the least unlikely.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 8:27:17 GMT
If Labour gain a seat like that with a disowned candidate then we really would be looking at the 500 plus MPs scenario surely
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 8, 2024 6:33:08 GMT
In their latest video about the Conservative party TLDR noted that Essex North West (the seat of Kemi Badenoch) has the potential to be challenged in the courts over an issue about postal votes. Has this issue been confirmed / sorted yet?
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zoe
Conservative
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Post by zoe on Jul 8, 2024 7:19:30 GMT
In their latest video about the Conservative party TLDR noted that Essex North West (the seat of Kemi Badenoch) has the potential to be challenged in the courts over an issue about postal votes. Has this issue been confirmed / sorted yet? It would have to be a very big issue with a majority of over 2,600 votes.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 8, 2024 7:21:39 GMT
The local council spectacularly managed not to issue around 2,000 postal votes.
Badenoch won by 2,600 so I think it’s unlikely that Labour who came second will want to challenge this.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,274
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2024 9:12:20 GMT
A more "likely" prospect there is Hendon, where Labour won by a literal handful of votes and the Tory complained about some postal ballots not being delivered on time.
But even here, it is almost certainly *not* going to happen.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 8, 2024 12:21:25 GMT
The local council spectacularly managed not to issue around 2,000 postal votes. Badenoch won by 2,600 so I think it’s unlikely that Labour who came second will want to challenge this. But, if they do and a court awards a rerun, she will triumph with a much larger majority, an enhanced reputation and become a more prominent challenger in a leadership election with a likelihood of winning it. So, come of Labour, please!
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,461
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Post by peterl on Jul 8, 2024 13:08:35 GMT
The local council spectacularly managed not to issue around 2,000 postal votes. Badenoch won by 2,600 so I think it’s unlikely that Labour who came second will want to challenge this. There could still be grounds for a successful petition here. The classic case is Hackney (1874) where some polling stations were closed all day resulting in about 5,000 people being unable to vote. The election was void, held that no democratic election had taken place. If this criteria is met, the result does not have to have been affected by the breach of the rules. Obviously 2,000 isn't 5,000, but there could be at least something arguable here if someone was inclined to challenge the result.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 13:27:56 GMT
A more "likely" prospect there is Hendon, where Labour won by a literal handful of votes and the Tory complained about some postal ballots not being delivered on time.But even here, it is almost certainly *not* going to happen. It seems Trumpian. Still, who knows.
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binky
Non-Aligned
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Post by binky on Jul 8, 2024 16:28:17 GMT
When can we expect Richmond and Northallerton? As soon as the leadership election has concluded?
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,332
Member is Online
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2024 16:32:46 GMT
A more "likely" prospect there is Hendon, where Labour won by a literal handful of votes and the Tory complained about some postal ballots not being delivered on time.But even here, it is almost certainly *not* going to happen. It seems Trumpian. Still, who knows. It really doesn't. It's based on facts, and a demonstrable flaw in the procedure. It's still a bad idea to appeal, as Winchester 1997 shows, but its not Trumpian.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 16:36:40 GMT
It seems Trumpian. Still, who knows. It really doesn't. It's based on facts, and a demonstrable flaw in the procedure. It's still a bad idea to appeal, as Winchester 1997 shows, but its not Trumpian. Is it potentially ID swinging it? I think the Tories could win a Hendon by-election but it could backfire spectacularly and they might not win the seat for 10 years.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 8, 2024 18:06:08 GMT
When can we expect Richmond and Northallerton? As soon as the leadership election has concluded? FWIW I think Rishi Sunak will stay as MP for Richmond & Northallerton for the whole parliament.
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 8, 2024 18:23:33 GMT
When can we expect Richmond and Northallerton? As soon as the leadership election has concluded? FWIW I th8nk Rishi Sunak will stay as MP for Richmond & Northallerton for the whole parliament. I hope he follows the lead of Major or Brown rather than Blair or Cameron in this regard. By-elections should be avoided like the plague at the moment frankly!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 18:33:53 GMT
Rishi Sunak might just become an absentee MP once the Tory leadership is settled. Is he really that employable given his disastrous election loss?
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,069
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Post by ilerda on Jul 8, 2024 20:21:42 GMT
Rishi Sunak might just become an absentee MP once the Tory leadership is settled. Is he really that employable given his disastrous election loss? A poor record in office followed by an electoral drubbing didn’t seem to prevent Nick Clegg from picking up a pretty chushy gig.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 8, 2024 20:59:33 GMT
I wonder if a few years as a constituency MP might do Sunak some good. He was rushed into No 11, then came Covid, then the leadership and being PM. Actually settling down in the Yorkshire Moors away from the weight of the world could be exactly what he and his family need
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 8, 2024 21:46:25 GMT
I wonder if a few years as a constituency MP might do Sunak some good. He was rushed into No 11, then came Covid, then the leadership and being PM. Actually settling down in the Yorkshire Moors away from the weight of the world could be exactly what he and his family need It's much more of the Dales than the Moors, with the majority of the seat being west of the A19.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jul 8, 2024 21:56:38 GMT
Rishi Sunak might just become an absentee MP once the Tory leadership is settled. Is he really that employable given his disastrous election loss? I don't think it was personally disastrous for him, he succeeded where he intended, and Infosys are now balls deep into Britain.
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Post by batman on Jul 8, 2024 22:15:17 GMT
When can we expect Richmond and Northallerton? As soon as the leadership election has concluded? FWIW I th8nk Rishi Sunak will stay as MP for Richmond & Northallerton for the whole parliament. he has basically said he will. Nor will the Conservative Party want a by-election here, even if it is one that they ought to be able to win.
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