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Post by batman on Nov 20, 2023 8:56:20 GMT
The fact that we are probably one year out from a general election does not preclude by-elections. Not yet by any means.
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Post by graham on Nov 20, 2023 10:14:42 GMT
The fact that we are probably one year out from a general election does not preclude by-elections. Not yet by any means. we are now probably less than 10 months from Dissolution.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 20, 2023 11:18:46 GMT
If an MP dropped dead tomorrow we’d still have a by-election.
If the Wellinborough recall petition next month is successful, again there will be a by-election.
If an MP dies/resigns/is disqualified etc after say the locals in May then we might not see a by-election.
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Post by graham on Nov 20, 2023 12:01:37 GMT
If an MP dropped dead tomorrow we’d still have a by-election. If the Wellinborough recall petition next month is successful, again there will be a by-election. If an MP dies/resigns/is disqualified etc after say the locals in May then we might not see a by-election. Unless Sunak opts for a May election. That would likely rule out further by elections.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 20, 2023 12:14:45 GMT
There's three months (to the same week) between the Wellingborough recall petition outcome and the date on which a May election would be announced. Assuming the 10% threshold for signatures is reached then the loose rules for byelections would technically allow the government to leave the seat vacant until dissolution - but it would probably come under a lot of pressure to move the writ.
The government could also try to move the writ at such a point (beginning of March?) that the polling would be cancelled in the event of a dissolution.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 20, 2023 12:28:47 GMT
Unless Sunak opts for a May election. That would likely rule out further by elections. Well yes, I was hoping that was some what a given!
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 20, 2023 13:20:59 GMT
Further to David's point, can anyone confirm who ultimately makes the final decision about when/if a by-election takes place in this scenario? Is it the PM?
Just thinking of this scenario:
Sunak decides (privately) to hold out till the bitter end in Jan 25. A Tory MP dies/resigns etc on, say, 1 June 24. What is the exact process at that point? Does someone approach the PM and say "due to the '6-month rule' we dont need to call a by-election provided the GE occurs within the next 6 months"? Presumably at this point Sunak would have to tell this advisor/electoral commission person (?) that he dosent intend to call an election within 6 months and to proceed with the by-election, then this would soon become obvious to all that he intends to call a Jan 25 election, or at least not before 1 December 24?
Or am I missing something?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 20, 2023 13:35:44 GMT
Further to David's point, can anyone confirm who ultimately makes the final decision about when/if a by-election takes place in this scenario? Is it the PM? Just thinking of this scenario: Sunak decides (privately) to hold out till the bitter end in Jan 25. A Tory MP dies/resigns etc on, say, 1 June 24. What is the exact process at that point? Does someone approach the PM and say "due to the '6-month rule' we dont need to call a by-election provided the GE occurs within the next 6 months"? Presumably at this point Sunak would have to tell this advisor/electoral commission person (?) that he dosent intend to call an election within 6 months and to proceed with the by-election, then this would soon become obvious to all that he intends to call a Jan 25 election, or at least not before 1 December 24? Or am I missing something? Others will be able to advise I’m sure, but there is no 6 month rule for parliamentary by elections I don’t think.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 20, 2023 13:47:06 GMT
There is no formal six month rule IIRC, just an argreed convention. Obviously harder to enforce at the moment as we're now in the 4 to 4.5yr period. If we get to next May/June without a GE, everyone will know there's an election due within six months. In terms of who decides it would be party whips (who would obviously talk to others in their party). If a party who were in charge of calling a by-election following a vacancy on their side were confident of holding it, I'm sure they would call it even if they thought a GE would follow in order to gain traction/favourable coverage. If a party thought they were likely to loose the by-election, I'm sure they'd sit on their hands. Sunak decides (privately) to hold out till the bitter end in Jan 25. A Tory MP dies/resigns etc on, say, 1 June 24. What is the exact process at that point? Does someone approach the PM and say "due to the '6-month rule' we dont need to call a by-election provided the GE occurs within the next 6 months"? Presumably at this point Sunak would have to tell this advisor/electoral commission person (?) that he dosent intend to call an election within 6 months and to proceed with the by-election, then this would soon become obvious to all that he intends to call a Jan 25 election, or at least not before 1 December 24? In this scenario, assuming it's a seat the Conservatives thought they would loose, they would sit on their hands, Ministers etc would get questioned on it in the media, the Commons leader and possibly the PM would need to deflect the question in the house.The Electoral Commission wouldn't come in to it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 20, 2023 16:21:33 GMT
I'm sure I have previously pointed it out, but the 'rules' for Parliamentary byelections were agreed in a Speaker's Conference on Electoral Law in 1973, and are contained in a letter from the Speaker to the Prime Minister on 26 November published as Cmnd. 5500.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 20, 2023 19:05:56 GMT
Thank you for putting the word rules in inverted commas because that is just what they are. And as we’ve seen “rules” like this can be conveniently forgotten when it suits.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 20, 2023 19:30:13 GMT
There is no formal six month rule IIRC, just an argreed convention. Obviously harder to enforce at the moment as we're now in the 4 to 4.5yr period. If we get to next May/June without a GE, everyone will know there's an election due within six months. In terms of who decides it would be party whips (who would obviously talk to others in their party). If a party who were in charge of calling a by-election following a vacancy on their side were confident of holding it, I'm sure they would call it even if they thought a GE would follow in order to gain traction/favourable coverage. If a party thought they were likely to loose the by-election, I'm sure they'd sit on their hands. Sunak decides (privately) to hold out till the bitter end in Jan 25. A Tory MP dies/resigns etc on, say, 1 June 24. What is the exact process at that point? Does someone approach the PM and say "due to the '6-month rule' we dont need to call a by-election provided the GE occurs within the next 6 months"? Presumably at this point Sunak would have to tell this advisor/electoral commission person (?) that he dosent intend to call an election within 6 months and to proceed with the by-election, then this would soon become obvious to all that he intends to call a Jan 25 election, or at least not before 1 December 24? In this scenario, assuming it's a seat the Conservatives thought they would loose, they would sit on their hands, Ministers etc would get questioned on it in the media, the Commons leader and possibly the PM would need to deflect the question in the house.The Electoral Commission wouldn't come in to it. There ought to be, given how long it takes to schedule and run a Parliamentary by-election. Another "six month rule" should be place as it is in Canada and the Republic of Ireland: every by-election must be filled no later than six months after it occurs.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 20, 2023 19:38:32 GMT
There ought to be, given how long it takes to schedule and run a Parliamentary by-election. Another "six month rule" should be place as it is in Canada and the Republic of Ireland: every by-election must be filled no later than six months after it occurs. Agreed. Personally I’d take away the power from whips/parties to choose the date for elections/by-elections too, but I know I’m in a minority in this place on that.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Nov 20, 2023 20:13:06 GMT
I'm sure I have previously pointed it out, but the 'rules' for Parliamentary byelections were agreed in a Speaker's Conference on Electoral Law in 1973, and are contained in a letter from the Speaker to the Prime Minister on 26 November published as Cmnd. 5500. It is interesting that they thought that by-elections should not happen at the same time as the May local elections. It is good that such a suggestion has been long since abandoned.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Nov 21, 2023 11:53:22 GMT
Putting on this thread as it seems to be the nearest we have to an 'MPs behaving badly' thread, but former Northampton South MP David Mackintosh has just been found not guilty of fraud around withholding sources of political donations. This is all tied up in the Northampton Town ground saga and the reasons Mackintosh was effectively deselected in 2017. The businessman (Howard Grossman) who was also on trial, accused of making 'donations' (allegedly bribes relating to the football stadium) and then making these 'donations' through several unconnected people, also found not guilty. A complex trial but the evidence as reported didn't paint the defendants in a good light so an interesting verdict and I wonder whether Mackintosh might be cleared for a comeback as a result? EDIT: Write up now available at www.nnjournal.co.uk/p/former-northampton-mp-david-mackintosh I hadn't realised this was the first trial on offences under PPERA.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 21, 2023 12:14:22 GMT
I'm sure I have previously pointed it out, but the 'rules' for Parliamentary byelections were agreed in a Speaker's Conference on Electoral Law in 1973, and are contained in a letter from the Speaker to the Prime Minister on 26 November published as Cmnd. 5500. It is interesting that they thought that by-elections should not happen at the same time as the May local elections. It is good that such a suggestion has been long since abandoned. It is of course possible that they thought by elections on the same day as local elections was a bad idea, I can see the case for this, but I wonder if they actually meant that by elections should not happen during the weeks leading up to local elections.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Nov 21, 2023 18:12:21 GMT
Putting on this thread as it seems to be the nearest we have to an 'MPs behaving badly' thread, but former Northampton South MP David Mackintosh has just been found not guilty of fraud around withholding sources of political donations. This is all tied up in the Northampton Town ground saga and the reasons Mackintosh was effectively deselected in 2017. The businessman (Howard Grossman) who was also on trial, accused of making 'donations' (allegedly bribes relating to the football stadium) and then making these 'donations' through several unconnected people, also found not guilty. A complex trial but the evidence as reported didn't paint the defendants in a good light so an interesting verdict and I wonder whether Mackintosh might be cleared for a comeback as a result? EDIT: Write up now available at www.nnjournal.co.uk/p/former-northampton-mp-david-mackintosh I hadn't realised this was the first trial on offences under PPERA. I’m surprised his agent wasn’t a party in the trial, or was s/he one of those noted to have plead guilty to another charge under ppera?
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 14, 2023 9:21:30 GMT
Blackpool South: Scott Benton recommended for a 35 day suspension.
Of course we may be close enough to a General Election that there won’t be a by-election even if this is approved and the recall petition passes. Unless he resigns I don’t think the seat can be vacant before some time in March.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 14, 2023 9:33:02 GMT
Blackpool South: Scott Benton recommended for a 35 day suspension. Of course we may be close enough to a General Election that there won’t be a by-election even if this is approved and the recall petition passes. Unless he resigns I don’t think the seat can be vacant before some time in March. I was going to ask does that trigger a recall petition, to which the answer is clearly "YES"
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 14, 2023 9:39:24 GMT
Blackpool South: Scott Benton recommended for a 35 day suspension. Of course we may be close enough to a General Election that there won’t be a by-election even if this is approved and the recall petition passes. Unless he resigns I don’t think the seat can be vacant before some time in March. I was going to ask does that trigger a recall petition, to which the answer is clearly "YES" Ten days or more does.
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