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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 24, 2022 21:51:11 GMT
JRM would make a lousy ‘Levelling Up’ secretary. Most of the core decisions are around contentious and nationally significant planning applications and dealing with the muck that comes with local Government. Not much opportunity for grand-standing there and plenty of detail needed where he can’t avoid making enemies whatever he chooses. Unless he thinks he can rewrite the National Planning Policy Framework i can’t imagine a role he’d be less well suited-for. Interesting to see the confidence from respected members of the red team on NE Somerset - My best guess is for them to come third if it came to it. Fundamentals for LDs better than any of their pickups so far and that’s before you factor in the Bath local party next door. It’s bad enough having the MP for Tunbridge Wells as the Levelling-up Secretary. That only fits Sunak’s definition of levelling up. Yes, yes, Gove was from Surrey but if pressed he’d play on his humble Aberdeen upbringing wouldn’t he. Neither are a patch on Nandy of Wigan though.If Labour were to come third in NES I think of all the by elections (bar H’pool) that would be the most damaging for Starmer as it shows consistency in coming third (winning Wakefield was a given…) but what’s worse is, as has been said, Labour were consistently runners-up and winners in ‘Wansdyke’ during the Blair years, and even in 2017 were ‘winnable’ runners up, not a distant second a la NShropshire/T&H. But it looks like neither will budge given the closeness of second/third and it could be an ugly campaign which could see the Tory sneak through. At a GE this does pose some interesting questions for ‘split opposition’ places like Wimbledon - again surely both main parties will fight it to the bitter end? LDs would probably point to something like St Albans - super-remain and just because you Labour were winners in the Blair years doesn’t give you divine cosmic justice to win it back, so we won it instead… but Labour will equally maintain they have had proven success in the past. There probably aren’t as many massively split opposition constituencies these days, mind, in England, compared to 1997, where I think there were a few missed opportunities where proper tactical voting could have seen even more conservatives removed - Folkestone, Wells and Salisbury are some examples of the top of my head where LDs underperformed and a lot of votes were wasted on a third-place surge in Labour votes only for them to stay in third. Equally several seats where Labour reduced the Tory majority to three figures, but where there were still thousands of votes for the LDs (Hexham, SW Bedford). But maybe that’s just me being greedy - after all Labour did win some seats from third place in 97… Let's give Greg Clark some credit - he grew up in Normanby, went to school in South Bank, and his parents had pretty run of the mill jobs. You can't really call that a privileged upbringing, even by Teesside standards.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 24, 2022 21:57:50 GMT
It’s bad enough having the MP for Tunbridge Wells as the Levelling-up Secretary. That only fits Sunak’s definition of levelling up. Yes, yes, Gove was from Surrey but if pressed he’d play on his humble Aberdeen upbringing wouldn’t he. Neither are a patch on Nandy of Wigan though. Let's give Greg Clark some credit - he grew up in Normanby, went to school in South Bank, and his parents had pretty run of the mill jobs. You can't really call that a privileged upbringing, even by Teesside standards. I did not know that so I will concede that, there was just something symbolic about Tunbridge Wells, and I guess he’s not a household name like Gove nor has he ever gone for the leadership so hasn’t had a chance to go on at length about his ‘humble’ upbringing unlike Truss, Javid, etc
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 24, 2022 22:32:44 GMT
Nandy of Wigan, with her humble background of a grandfather who was an MP and peer.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 25, 2022 7:25:35 GMT
Let's give Greg Clark some credit - he grew up in Normanby, went to school in South Bank, and his parents had pretty run of the mill jobs. You can't really call that a privileged upbringing, even by Teesside standards. I did not know that so I will concede that, there was just something symbolic about Tunbridge Wells, and I guess he’s not a household name like Gove nor has he ever gone for the leadership so hasn’t had a chance to go on at length about his ‘humble’ upbringing unlike Truss, Javid, etc It's not exactly difficult to find out that Clark's dad was a milkman and his mum worked at a supermarket while he went to a state comp. The 'Levelling Up' part of the department title that he heads up is performance art anyway. It's still effectively the local government/housing etc. department with the 'levelling up' decisions made by the treasury, decisions that appear to be based on how advantageous it is to the Conservatives in seats that appear to be at risk and generally ignoring areas of real investment need along the south coast and the south west in particular.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 25, 2022 8:00:04 GMT
Politicians need to be good at their job, I don't care what their parents did, it is irrelevent to their competence.
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 25, 2022 8:24:08 GMT
Politicians need to be good at their job, I don't care what their parents did, it is irrelevent to their competence. Entirely agree. But what they did before becoming politicians does matter.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 25, 2022 9:13:40 GMT
Nandy of Wigan, with her humble background of a grandfather who was an MP and peer. By which you mean Frank Byers, Liberal MP for North Dorset from 1945-50.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2022 9:20:07 GMT
Labour would certainly win a by-election in NE Somerset in the current climate. I'd be surprised if the Tories could hold Selby & Ainsty either. The polls seem to have taken a distinct turn for the worse for the Tories in the last week & a bit and not many expect them to get better any time soon either. I’m not sure about NE Somerset. The Start of the campaign would be crucial. I think the Lib Dems would win it. They have a lot more to build on there than in Tiverton or North Shropshire. On paper, yes. But what shouldn't be forgotten is that the 2019 result may be slightly misleading, heavily influenced as it was by a constituency poll saying that the LibDems might have a real chance of winning the seat (unlike Labour) The fact that despite that they still finished third, maybe isn't such a good sign for them. Though it is maybe academic given that, like others, I don't think a byelection in JRM's seat is likely any time soon.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 25, 2022 9:59:48 GMT
I did not know that so I will concede that, there was just something symbolic about Tunbridge Wells, and I guess he’s not a household name like Gove nor has he ever gone for the leadership so hasn’t had a chance to go on at length about his ‘humble’ upbringing unlike Truss, Javid, etc It's not exactly difficult to find out that Clark's dad was a milkman and his mum worked at a supermarket while he went to a state comp. The 'Levelling Up' part of the department title that he heads up is performance art anyway. It's still effectively the local government/housing etc. department with the 'levelling up' decisions made by the treasury, decisions that appear to be based on how advantageous it is to the Conservatives in seats that appear to be at risk and generally ignoring areas of real investment need along the south coast and the south west in particular. This is my personal opinion. The lack of policy control (and, in reality, operational control) over 'levelling up' from the department allegedly charged with it is another reason to either break up HMT or clip its wings substantially. Again a personal opinion, but even without a Treasury wing clipping it might be time to consider the role of the Chief Secretary which is, perhaps, too broad. The list of responsibilities is here. Arguably things like 'women in the economy', 'Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) and welfare reform' and 'efficiency and value for money in public service', among others, don't need to be there (especially the latter as it has a specific minister). There is a lot of scope for Treasury involvement here. I haven't considered what a restructure might look like, or what the new functions of a Chief Secretary, if the post exists, might be.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2022 10:02:00 GMT
Nandy of Wigan, with her humble background of a grandfather who was an MP and peer. Has she ever claimed to be "humble", though?
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 25, 2022 10:11:17 GMT
Nandy of Wigan, with her humble background of a grandfather who was an MP and peer. By which you mean Frank Byers, Liberal MP for North Dorset from 1945-50. Indeed so.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 25, 2022 10:17:12 GMT
Nandy of Wigan, with her humble background of a grandfather who was an MP and peer. Has she ever claimed to be "humble", though? Probably not, but at bsjmcr seemed to believe that she was.
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Post by tonyhill on Aug 25, 2022 10:22:00 GMT
Johnson could well cock a snook at convention and make JRM a hereditary peer - just the sort of thing he would do in fact.
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Post by Wisconsin on Aug 25, 2022 10:31:01 GMT
Johnson could well cock a snook at convention and make JRM a hereditary peer - just the sort of thing he would do in fact. Don’t give him ideas. Johnson could try to give himself an hereditary peerage.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 25, 2022 11:07:40 GMT
Has she ever claimed to be "humble", though? Probably not, but at bsjmcr seemed to believe that she was. Still, state schooled and non-Oxbridge though (not that the latter is an issue if state-schooled of course).
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 25, 2022 11:49:49 GMT
Probably not, but at bsjmcr seemed to believe that she was. Still, state schooled and non-Oxbridge though (not that the latter is an issue if state-schooled of course). & used to go clubbing at the 'Trix in Ripon, which is a sign of great taste
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 25, 2022 12:17:14 GMT
Johnson could well cock a snook at convention and make JRM a hereditary peer - just the sort of thing he would do in fact. Don’t give him ideas. Johnson could try to give himself an hereditary peerage. but then which of his progeny inherits?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 25, 2022 12:28:44 GMT
JRM would make a lousy ‘Levelling Up’ secretary. Most of the core decisions are around contentious and nationally significant planning applications and dealing with the muck that comes with local Government. Not much opportunity for grand-standing there and plenty of detail needed where he can’t avoid making enemies whatever he chooses. Unless he thinks he can rewrite the National Planning Policy Framework i can’t imagine a role he’d be less well suited-for. Interesting to see the confidence from respected members of the red team on NE Somerset - My best guess is for them to come third if it came to it. Fundamentals for LDs better than any of their pickups so far and that’s before you factor in the Bath local party next door. It's probably an academic question, but I can't imagine that being next door to Bath matters that much - it's also right next to Bristol, which has a lot more Labour members than both does LD ones, and in any case LD activists are usually fairly willing to travel.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 25, 2022 12:48:01 GMT
IIRC there was some mirth at the last BANES election when the ward in which JRM's manorial pile is situated elected a Lib Dem councillor!
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 25, 2022 12:57:57 GMT
I don't think there is likely to be a by-election. However this is one of the few seats where it isn't fairly obvious who is the main challenger to the Tory so it may not be as susceptible to acceptance of a paper candidature.
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