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Post by stb12 on Jul 13, 2022 20:29:35 GMT
Portsmouth North. Just in case everything really goes pear-shaped... Why would losing a leadership election mean she’d resign from Parliament?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 13, 2022 20:32:01 GMT
Portsmouth North. Just in case everything really goes pear-shaped... Why would losing a leadership election mean she’d resign from Parliament? I'm detecting a suggestion that there may be more afoot locally than that.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 20:36:40 GMT
Why would losing a leadership election mean she’d resign from Parliament? I'm detecting a suggestion that there may be more afoot locally than that. We can only hope.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,556
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 13, 2022 20:42:06 GMT
Why would losing a leadership election mean she’d resign from Parliament? I'm detecting a suggestion that there may be more afoot locally than that. I don't think it'll escalate out of control, and it's not ever clear if it'll see the light of day, but it is potentially something that could escalated very fast, especially with the issues that the local party has currently.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 13, 2022 21:32:57 GMT
Yes I think most of us on this site can see the possibility/ likelihood of Labour gains in Bournemouth and Worthing in 15 years time coming now. I don’t think the commentators can. As an ex-Bournemouth resident, I am sceptical. In East in 2019, the approximate result was Con 51%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 11%, Green 4%. Labour did only a tiny bit better in 2017, and worse in 2015 by a large margin, so this was not a "Get Brexit Done" vote. West very similar. Labour have a long way to go here. Next year's council elections will be instructive. Its the best area for Labour in Dorset, but that's not saying much. Finding more impressive candidates would help, in East last time I believe the candidate was a part time cleaner. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't exactly say future MP. In the current climate, a doctor or a nurse would most likely be a safe bet. - actually the Lab candidate in East was really impressive and very articulate.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 14, 2022 2:06:21 GMT
I'm detecting a suggestion that there may be more afoot locally than that. I don't think it'll escalate out of control, and it's not ever clear if it'll see the light of day, but it is potentially something that could escalated very fast, especially with the issues that the local party has currently. WHAT may or may not escalate out of control? WHAT is something that could escalate very fast?
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Post by matureleft on Jul 14, 2022 6:08:05 GMT
I'm detecting a suggestion that there may be more afoot locally than that. I don't think it'll escalate out of control, and it's not ever clear if it'll see the light of day, but it is potentially something that could escalated very fast, especially with the issues that the local party has currently. I understand your wish to be guarded. Perhaps you could set out Mordaunt's local position? On the face of it her results have been pretty good. I know that there was a boundary change in 2010 but it doesn't look big enough to explain any significant part of her victory? And she's built her majority since. I appreciate that the local Labour party may have been helpful? I know Portsmouth politics can be edgy. How has she navigated that? Assiduous local member (and she is fairly local)?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 14, 2022 7:08:37 GMT
Bournemouth is a place Labour should do well but don't, at least not well enough. Between plenty of students and plenty of deprived areas, in principle both seats should be a no brainer for the target list. But just three councillors in 2019 in the whole town. I think part of the problem is that its a town where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems for the status of main opposition party, splitting the anti-Tory vote (reasonable Green support in addition). If some local agreement could be made whereby Labour focus more effort on Bournemouth and the Lib Dems more on Poole, it would probably benefit both sides. In some projections recently from polling aggreators, I have seen a suggestion that Bournemouth East and West are Labour gains. I can remember a day when Bournemouth East and West were Liberal Democrat targets (and viable ones at that). Did the 2015 election completely destroy the Lib Dems in the urban south west?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2022 7:17:21 GMT
She wasn’t very shy when the Daily Mail came calling! Boom! . on a serious note i wonder if this could be an issue come next time a la 1992 Cat deaths?
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 14, 2022 7:43:17 GMT
Bournemouth is a place Labour should do well but don't, at least not well enough. Between plenty of students and plenty of deprived areas, in principle both seats should be a no brainer for the target list. But just three councillors in 2019 in the whole town. I think part of the problem is that its a town where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems for the status of main opposition party, splitting the anti-Tory vote (reasonable Green support in addition). If some local agreement could be made whereby Labour focus more effort on Bournemouth and the Lib Dems more on Poole, it would probably benefit both sides. In some projections recently from polling aggreators, I have seen a suggestion that Bournemouth East and West are Labour gains. I can remember a day when Bournemouth East and West were Liberal Democrat targets (and viable ones at that). Did the 2015 election completely destroy the Lib Dems in the urban south west? The Lib Dems fell behind Labour in both seats in 2015, presumably the tactical votes that used to go to the Lib Dems are now going to Labour in those seats. Also Bournemouth has become much more 'studenty' in the past decade or so which will have benefitted Labour; Labour didn't suffer as badly in Bournemouth as they did in either Poole or Christchurch - in fact they were hardly down in Bournemouth at all.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 14, 2022 8:08:32 GMT
Cities are inexorably becoming a Conservative free zone. This is another new and less commented on change in British politics, but is also an undesirable form of polarization. Since cities are the dynamic heart of the economy, governments based almost entirely outside them can only support our continued economic decline. Given that you seem to believe that every demographic except people who are close to death is tending away from the Conservatives, why do they still win elections? And if cities are "the dynamic heart of the economy" how do the Conservatives do in those constituencies where the beats of the dynamic heart commute in from? Not to mention a few clear counter examples. The clearest is Stoke on Trent. But also we are if anything going forward rather than backwards in Hull, Sunderland, Coventry, Milton Keynes, Middlesbrough, Wakefield, and doing ok in Portsmouth, Southampton, Norwich, Milton Keynes.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 14, 2022 8:29:16 GMT
Given that you seem to believe that every demographic except people who are close to death is tending away from the Conservatives, why do they still win elections? And if cities are "the dynamic heart of the economy" how do the Conservatives do in those constituencies where the beats of the dynamic heart commute in from? Not to mention a few clear counter examples. The clearest is Stoke on Trent. But also we are if anything going forward rather than backwards in Hull, Sunderland, Coventry, Milton Keynes, Middlesbrough, Wakefield, and doing ok in Portsmouth, Southampton, Norwich, Milton Keynes. ?
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Post by aargauer on Jul 14, 2022 9:02:48 GMT
Not to mention a few clear counter examples. The clearest is Stoke on Trent. But also we are if anything going forward rather than backwards in Hull, Sunderland, Coventry, Milton Keynes, Middlesbrough, Wakefield, and doing ok in Portsmouth, Southampton, Norwich, Milton Keynes. ? The first Milton Keynes is in error!
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Post by batman on Jul 14, 2022 9:08:51 GMT
Bournemouth is a place Labour should do well but don't, at least not well enough. Between plenty of students and plenty of deprived areas, in principle both seats should be a no brainer for the target list. But just three councillors in 2019 in the whole town. I think part of the problem is that its a town where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems for the status of main opposition party, splitting the anti-Tory vote (reasonable Green support in addition). If some local agreement could be made whereby Labour focus more effort on Bournemouth and the Lib Dems more on Poole, it would probably benefit both sides. In some projections recently from polling aggreators, I have seen a suggestion that Bournemouth East and West are Labour gains. I can remember a day when Bournemouth East and West were Liberal Democrat targets (and viable ones at that). Did the 2015 election completely destroy the Lib Dems in the urban south west? yes
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Post by batman on Jul 14, 2022 9:10:23 GMT
Given that you seem to believe that every demographic except people who are close to death is tending away from the Conservatives, why do they still win elections? And if cities are "the dynamic heart of the economy" how do the Conservatives do in those constituencies where the beats of the dynamic heart commute in from? Not to mention a few clear counter examples. The clearest is Stoke on Trent. But also we are if anything going forward rather than backwards in Hull, Sunderland, Coventry, Milton Keynes, Middlesbrough, Wakefield, and doing ok in Portsmouth, Southampton, Norwich, Milton Keynes. The Tories are a basket case in Norwich city itself. The tenure of Norwich North is owed almost entirely to their strength in the slight majority of the seat which lies outside the city boundaries
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 14, 2022 9:10:46 GMT
The first Milton Keynes is in error! Should have been Milton Friedman? Or John Meynard Keynes?
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 14, 2022 9:13:07 GMT
Not to mention a few clear counter examples. The clearest is Stoke on Trent. But also we are if anything going forward rather than backwards in Hull, Sunderland, Coventry, Milton Keynes, Middlesbrough, Wakefield, and doing ok in Portsmouth, Southampton, Norwich, Milton Keynes. The Tories are a basket case in Norwich city itself. The tenure of Norwich North is owed almost entirely to their strength in the slight majority of the seat which lies outside the city boundaries Not sure I see aargauer's argument on Coventry either. That's a city the Tories have historically held a seat in, but they failed to win one in 2019 despite a landslide win nationally.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2022 9:28:10 GMT
The first Milton Keynes is in error! It's called Middleton now instead. Lol.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2022 9:32:04 GMT
The Tories are a basket case in Norwich city itself. The tenure of Norwich North is owed almost entirely to their strength in the slight majority of the seat which lies outside the city boundaries Not sure I see aargauer's argument on Coventry either. That's a city the Tories have historically held a seat in, but they failed to win one in 2019 despite a landslide win nationally. Indeed, if someone with Zarah Sultana's politics couldn't be beaten in 2019 then it suggests that the Tory vote in Coventry has reached a highpoint.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 14, 2022 9:40:28 GMT
Not sure I see aargauer's argument on Coventry either. That's a city the Tories have historically held a seat in, but they failed to win one in 2019 despite a landslide win nationally. Indeed, if someone with Zarah Sultana's politics couldn't be beaten in 2019 then it suggests that the Tory vote in Coventry has reached a highpoint. Coventry has a tradition of MP's on the left of the Labour party, particularly in the south of the city. Dave Nellist and Audrey Wise being two examples. Generally, the candidate makes little difference - in Co. Durham Labour MP's from both left and right lost seats in 2019 on similar swings.
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