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Post by carlton43 on Jul 13, 2022 8:32:49 GMT
Thanks. And the cat was called Boris no less, very appropriate timing. I doubt this will lead to a by election, although it would be a very interesting one in the current climate. No, a different neighbour's cat is called Boris, with a boxer called Stanley. I love the fact the house was attacked with a crochet stick, a detail not usual on my estate Is that a deliberate mangled clue to muddy the waters? I love it. Is this a case of the 'Militant Crochet Wing' of 'Suburban Women's Revolutionary Front' with blatant crochet hooks thrust out in anger? OR The 'Men's Solidarity Wing of the Bournemouth Croquet Front' massing on an estate? Is this a matter of mallets or hooks? I think we should be told. It is certainly not 'sticks'. Is it Crochet or Croquet? Is it Hooks or Mallets? I come from a background steeped in both crochet and croquet and these things matter a lot!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 13, 2022 9:08:56 GMT
No, a different neighbour's cat is called Boris, with a boxer called Stanley. I love the fact the house was attacked with a crochet stick, a detail not usual on my estate Is that a deliberate mangled clue to muddy the waters? I love it. Is this a case of the 'Militant Crochet Wing' of 'Suburban Women's Revolutionary Front' with blatant crochet hooks thrust out in anger? OR The 'Men's Solidarity Wing of the Bournemouth Croquet Front' massing on an estate? Is this a matter of mallets or hooks? I think we should be told. It is certainly not 'sticks'. Is it Crochet or Croquet? Is it Hooks or Mallets? I come from a background steeped in both crochet and croquet and these things matter a lot! Ha ha ha... Flaming autocorrect, but it is too funny to correct. Also, it brought your wonderful response.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 13, 2022 11:10:26 GMT
Loving the detail that Julie, who would have smashed in her Conservative MPs windows if he did it to her cat, has named her pets after the Johnson family and still supports the Conservatives anyways.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 13, 2022 11:57:28 GMT
Loving the detail that Julie, who would have smashed in her Conservative MPs windows if he did it to her cat, has named her pets after the Johnson family and still supports the Conservatives anyways. She'll be a shy Tory not giving her voting intention out to pollsters
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 13, 2022 12:23:18 GMT
Loving the detail that Julie, who would have smashed in her Conservative MPs windows if he did it to her cat, has named her pets after the Johnson family and still supports the Conservatives anyways. She'll be a shy Tory not giving her voting intention out to pollsters She wasn’t very shy when the Daily Mail came calling!
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 13, 2022 12:49:16 GMT
I'd have thought that in a situation where Labour are the largest party or win a general election both of the Bournemouth seats would go Labour and forever shock commentators in the process. I could see East being harder for the Conservatives to win back than West
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jul 13, 2022 12:52:46 GMT
I'd have thought that in a situation where Labour are the largest party or win a general election both of the Bournemouth seats would go Labour and forever shock commentators in the process. I could see East being harder for the Conservatives to win back than West More evidence for my pet theory that John Major's higher education reforms are a defining factor in shifting constituency voting behaviour. N.B. this is about the geographic areas themselves, not the individuals who happen to reside in them at any given point.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 13, 2022 14:13:44 GMT
The argument that the Bournemouth seats are likely Labour gains rests on application of (quite a large) UNS. It might happen, but I think we need to see what the local elections are like there next year before we start considering it to be likely rather than possible.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jul 13, 2022 14:22:38 GMT
Bournemouth is a place Labour should do well but don't, at least not well enough. Between plenty of students and plenty of deprived areas, in principle both seats should be a no brainer for the target list. But just three councillors in 2019 in the whole town. I think part of the problem is that its a town where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems for the status of main opposition party, splitting the anti-Tory vote (reasonable Green support in addition). If some local agreement could be made whereby Labour focus more effort on Bournemouth and the Lib Dems more on Poole, it would probably benefit both sides.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2022 14:37:46 GMT
The argument that the Bournemouth seats are likely Labour gains rests on application of (quite a large) UNS. It might happen, but I think we need to see what the local elections are like there next year before we start considering it to be likely rather than possible. Without knowing whether this might be true in this case local parties can be slow to catch up with demographics. If you’ve been in a party with very low expectations for many years it can be hard to shift gear. And the turnover of party members is typically pretty slow. And the party culture can be less welcoming than it could be to newcomers with different ideas. The Worthing story shows what can happen but there are examples where you see stasis.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 13, 2022 14:53:06 GMT
The fact that in the 2019 general election Labour managed to keep the Tory majority in East to under 20% suggests that they would almost certainly win the seat in the event of a by-election there, especially one caused by a misdemeanour by the sitting MP. In a general election the town's seats will remain harder nuts to crack, though I suspect Labour will win at least one of them within the next decade.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 13, 2022 16:53:17 GMT
On current polling ~UNS would probably see Labour win East and maybe West. Of course things may well move in the Conservative direction over the next couple of years, but they both look the sort of seats that Labour now need for a majority.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 13, 2022 16:59:59 GMT
She'll be a shy Tory not giving her voting intention out to pollsters She wasn’t very shy when the Daily Mail came calling! Boom! . on a serious note i wonder if this could be an issue come next time a la 1992
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 17:00:56 GMT
The argument that the Bournemouth seats are likely Labour gains rests on application of (quite a large) UNS. It might happen, but I think we need to see what the local elections are like there next year before we start considering it to be likely rather than possible. Without knowing whether this might be true in this case local parties can be slow to catch up with demographics. If you’ve been in a party with very low expectations for many years it can be hard to shift gear. And the turnover of party members is typically pretty slow. And the party culture can be less welcoming than it could be to newcomers with different ideas. The Worthing story shows what can happen but there are examples where you see stasis. Very much the same in the opposite direction with Labour being competitive in Cannock Chase etc.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 13, 2022 17:01:17 GMT
I'd have thought that in a situation where Labour are the largest party or win a general election both of the Bournemouth seats would go Labour and forever shock commentators in the process. they seem to have gotten over their Hove97 shock by now.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 13, 2022 17:04:09 GMT
I'd have thought that in a situation where Labour are the largest party or win a general election both of the Bournemouth seats would go Labour and forever shock commentators in the process. I could see East being harder for the Conservatives to win back than West Yes I think most of us on this site can see the possibility/ likelihood of Labour gains in Bournemouth and Worthing in 15 years time coming now. I don’t think the commentators can.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 13, 2022 17:26:34 GMT
Cities are inexorably becoming a Conservative free zone. This is another new and less commented on change in British politics, but is also an undesirable form of polarization. Since cities are the dynamic heart of the economy, governments based almost entirely outside them can only support our continued economic decline.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 17:37:09 GMT
Cities are inexorably becoming a Conservative free zone. This is another new and less commented on change in British politics, but is also an undesirable form of polarization. Since cities are the dynamic heart of the economy, governments based almost entirely outside them can only support our continued economic decline. A lot of this is the rise of longer distance commuting. In turn due to the unaffordability of family housing in nicer bits of cities.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jul 13, 2022 18:09:39 GMT
I'd have thought that in a situation where Labour are the largest party or win a general election both of the Bournemouth seats would go Labour and forever shock commentators in the process. I could see East being harder for the Conservatives to win back than West Yes I think most of us on this site can see the possibility/ likelihood of Labour gains in Bournemouth and Worthing in 15 years time coming now. I don’t think the commentators can. As an ex-Bournemouth resident, I am sceptical. In East in 2019, the approximate result was Con 51%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 11%, Green 4%. Labour did only a tiny bit better in 2017, and worse in 2015 by a large margin, so this was not a "Get Brexit Done" vote. West very similar. Labour have a long way to go here. Next year's council elections will be instructive. Its the best area for Labour in Dorset, but that's not saying much. Finding more impressive candidates would help, in East last time I believe the candidate was a part time cleaner. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't exactly say future MP. In the current climate, a doctor or a nurse would most likely be a safe bet.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 13, 2022 20:12:03 GMT
Portsmouth North.
Just in case everything really goes pear-shaped...
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