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Post by grahammurray on Jun 19, 2021 12:03:43 GMT
How long has there been a ban on dual mandates? 2014
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2021 12:11:38 GMT
Ian Paisley was an MP, MLA and MEP for a while. The majority of elected NI politicians seemed to have dual mandates for ages hence the eventual ban.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 19, 2021 15:03:08 GMT
Ian Paisley was an MP, MLA and MEP for a while. The majority of elected NI politicians seemed to have dual mandates for ages hence the eventual ban. Didn’t you have the wonderful sight of the climate change denier Sammy Wilson as Environment Minister in the Stormont executive?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 19, 2021 15:49:57 GMT
How long has there been a ban on dual mandates? 2014 So presumably Robbie Butler could stand again for the UUP but if he won he'd have to resign as MLA?
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2021 16:08:08 GMT
So presumably Robbie Butler could stand again for the UUP but if he won he'd have to resign as MLA? Indeed, less of an issue considering the assembly doesn’t do by-elections
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 19, 2021 18:50:38 GMT
So presumably Robbie Butler could stand again for the UUP but if he won he'd have to resign as MLA? An MLA elected as an MP has to stand down immediately, the other way round and they have 8 days.
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Post by gibbon on Jun 20, 2021 10:19:11 GMT
Vetting only really gets you as far as things that are public knowledge or that the candidate in question is willing to tell you. It’s not likely to show up things like this if they don’t fall into either of those categories. Even character and personality flaws can be difficult to pick up if the candidate is a good enough actor. The Conservatives had problems selecting a candidate. The original candidate withdrew/resigned and the current MP was selected just before the General Election.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Jun 20, 2021 10:56:17 GMT
Vetting only really gets you as far as things that are public knowledge or that the candidate in question is willing to tell you. It’s not likely to show up things like this if they don’t fall into either of those categories. Even character and personality flaws can be difficult to pick up if the candidate is a good enough actor. The Conservatives had problems selecting a candidate. The original candidate withdrew/resigned and the current MP was selected just before the General Election. I know history of the selection in 2019, but I don’t see the relevance. In order to be selected (even at the last minute) he would have had to have been on the approved candidates list having undergone a Parliamentary Assessment Board. That is the time anything would have been picked up, because it’s the central party that does vetting not the local association when they select the candidate.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Jun 20, 2021 11:47:50 GMT
Lagan Valley - Jeffrey Donaldson wants to lead from Stormont if he gets the DUP leadership, there’s a ban on dual mandates in NI now so he’s need to step down from Westminster. Could be the most interesting NI byelection for a while? It would require a sitting DUP MLA to agree to retire and the two DUP incumbents in Lagan Valley are Poots and Givan, so unlikely to happen until after an Assembly election.
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 20, 2021 12:00:07 GMT
Could be the most interesting NI byelection for a while? It would require a sitting DUP MLA to agree to retire and the two DUP incumbents in Lagan Valley are Poots and Givan, so unlikely to happen until after an Assembly election. It wouldn't need to be Lagan Valley.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2021 12:01:24 GMT
Could be the most interesting NI byelection for a while? It would require a sitting DUP MLA to agree to retire and the two DUP incumbents in Lagan Valley are Poots and Givan, so unlikely to happen until after an Assembly election. Couldn't Donaldson take over from a more sympathetic MLA willing to retire? The Alliance would certainly hope to take Lagan Valley in a Westminster by-election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 20, 2021 12:09:22 GMT
The UUP might fancy a return from the dead - in Westminster terms at least - too, especially since the winner might get a relatively modest share.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2021 16:22:14 GMT
The UUP might fancy a return from the dead - in Westminster terms at least - too, especially since the winner might get a relatively modest share. That would be symbolic considering Donaldson defected to the DUP while Lagan Valley mp for the UUP
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2021 16:59:48 GMT
The UUP might fancy a return from the dead - in Westminster terms at least - too, especially since the winner might get a relatively modest share. Alliance in a much better position to take the seat though and you can guarantee the DUP will select a headbanger
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2021 17:06:50 GMT
The UUP might fancy a return from the dead - in Westminster terms at least - too, especially since the winner might get a relatively modest share. Alliance in a much better position to take the seat though and you can guarantee the DUP will select a headbanger They’re in a strong position but there may come a point where unionists are a bit fearful of their neutral position on the union.
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 20, 2021 17:26:43 GMT
I think people are overstating the Alliance's chances here. They probably picked up most of the soft unionist vote in 2019 and the remaining DUP vote is likely fairly solid. There isn't all that much SDLP or Sinn Fein vote left to squeeze and so they need to win over either lots of DUP voters or a big chunk of the remaining UUP vote.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 20, 2021 19:22:19 GMT
I think people are overstating the Alliance's chances here. They probably picked up most of the soft unionist vote in 2019 and the remaining DUP vote is likely fairly solid. There isn't all that much SDLP or Sinn Fein vote left to squeeze and so they need to win over either lots of DUP voters or a big chunk of the remaining UUP vote. I guess the alternative scenario is that the DUP vote gets split by competing unionist factions, maybe a disgruntled ex-dup independent unionist, a TUV candidate, etc.... Not saying it's likely, not saying it's likely, but under current circumstances not entirely impossible.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2021 19:33:03 GMT
Alliance in a much better position to take the seat though and you can guarantee the DUP will select a headbanger They’re in a strong position but there may come a point where unionists are a bit fearful of their neutral position on the union. Interesting. I spent yesterday evening with a friend from Larne. Unionist background, his sister is an old friend of Arlene, votes Alliance. He now has an Irish passport too. And he said he's not the only moderate Unionist who has done the same and is starting to, as he puts it, cross the bridge towards acceptance of a united Ireland. It was him who said that he thinks Alliance would win the by election.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2021 19:46:28 GMT
They’re in a strong position but there may come a point where unionists are a bit fearful of their neutral position on the union. Interesting. I spent yesterday evening with a friend from Larne. Unionist background, his sister is an old friend of Arlene, votes Alliance. He now has an Irish passport too. And he said he's not the only moderate Unionist who has done the same and is starting to, as he puts it, cross the bridge towards acceptance of a united Ireland. It was him who said that he thinks Alliance would win the by election. No doubt an increasing number of people like that exist but it would be daft to write off the strident unionist opinion that still exists in large numbers.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2021 19:52:53 GMT
Interesting. I spent yesterday evening with a friend from Larne. Unionist background, his sister is an old friend of Arlene, votes Alliance. He now has an Irish passport too. And he said he's not the only moderate Unionist who has done the same and is starting to, as he puts it, cross the bridge towards acceptance of a united Ireland. It was him who said that he thinks Alliance would win the by election. No doubt an increasing number of people like that exist but it would be daft to write off the strident unionist opinion that still exists in large numbers. I'm not, but it's likely to be split.
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