obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 837
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Post by obsie on Jun 20, 2021 23:21:05 GMT
I think people are overstating the Alliance's chances here. They probably picked up most of the soft unionist vote in 2019 and the remaining DUP vote is likely fairly solid. There isn't all that much SDLP or Sinn Fein vote left to squeeze and so they need to win over either lots of DUP voters or a big chunk of the remaining UUP vote. A lot of it is not natural DUP territory - prosperous Belfast commuter belt, the rural Antrim bit is much more Anglican than Presbyterian, it voted for Brexit but much more narrowly so than one might expect given the demographics - but Donaldson would have a sizeable personal vote.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 837
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Post by obsie on Jun 20, 2021 23:33:11 GMT
It would require a sitting DUP MLA to agree to retire and the two DUP incumbents in Lagan Valley are Poots and Givan, so unlikely to happen until after an Assembly election. Couldn't Donaldson take over from a more sympathetic MLA willing to retire? The Alliance would certainly hope to take Lagan Valley in a Westminster by-election. In terms of age the most likely candidates might be George Robinson (E L/Derry) or Robin Newton (E Belfast). But then there's talk about Donaldson collapsing Stormont over Irish language legislation, which would leave it all moot.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2021 23:41:22 GMT
Couldn't Donaldson take over from a more sympathetic MLA willing to retire? The Alliance would certainly hope to take Lagan Valley in a Westminster by-election. In terms of age the most likely candidates might be George Robinson (E L/Derry) or Robin Newton (E Belfast). But then there's talk about Donaldson collapsing Stormont over Irish language legislation, which would leave it all moot. In that case him wanting to leave Westminster to lead the party from an inactive assembly would be a bit odd.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,525
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Post by john07 on Jun 21, 2021 0:00:07 GMT
The above all smacks of trying to superimpose some sort of logical coherence on to a an Ulster Unionist mindset.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jun 24, 2021 11:04:50 GMT
Delyn back in the news - though it doesn't appear he's going anywhere.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2021 11:12:14 GMT
Though there remains the possibility of further allegations coming to light, as was reportedly claimed if Roberts declined to quit.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 24, 2021 17:37:02 GMT
Delyn back in the news - though it doesn't appear he's going anywhere. Why would he? Like Margaret Covid, he's living his best life, he'll never get near this sort of earnings again. He may as well hang on until the next election. However, I bet he gets into trouble again.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2021 5:20:08 GMT
Something about Suffolk? Tim Yeo represented a seat in that county as well.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,513
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Post by iang on Jul 1, 2021 5:26:16 GMT
He can't be removed though can he? Whilst the local party might de-select him, they have no power to force him to resign
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 1, 2021 7:04:43 GMT
Something about Suffolk? Tim Yeo represented a seat in that county as well. Nothing else to do?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 1, 2021 8:35:10 GMT
Something about Suffolk? Tim Yeo represented a seat in that county as well. Nothing else to do? 'Incest flourished where the roads were bad.'
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Post by gibbon on Jul 1, 2021 9:41:17 GMT
What effect will the boundary review have on Hancock's seat? If there are any dramatic changes local members can use this to remove him.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 1, 2021 9:57:14 GMT
What effect will the boundary review have on Hancock's seat? If there are any dramatic changes local members can use this to remove him. There are some pretty radical changes planned. A large area in the south of the seat, including Haverhill, would be removed and would form part of a new cross-county constituency with Halstead in Essex. A much smaller area in the east around Ixworth would become part of another new seat, called Suffolk North. The remaining area, centred on Newmarket, would then gain the town of Bury St Edmunds - and the name of West Suffolk constituency is to be changed to "Newmarket and Bury St Edmunds" to reflect this.
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Post by gibbon on Jul 1, 2021 10:01:40 GMT
What effect will the boundary review have on Hancock's seat? If there are any dramatic changes local members can use this to remove him. There are some pretty radical changes planned. A large area in the south of the seat, including Haverhill, would be removed and would form part of a new cross-county constituency with Halstead in Essex. A much smaller area in the east around Ixworth would become part of another new seat, called Suffolk North. The remaining area, centred on Newmarket, would then gain the town of Bury St Edmunds - and the name of West Suffolk constituency is to be changed to "Newmarket and Bury St Edmunds" to reflect this. With all these changes it looks that there will be some competition for the new seats. Why remove him now but wait until the boundary review finishes its work and remove him then.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2021 10:04:26 GMT
Unusual for a ministerial resigning matter to end up as resigning as an MP as well so can’t see it
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 1, 2021 10:05:30 GMT
There are some pretty radical changes planned. A large area in the south of the seat, including Haverhill, would be removed and would form part of a new cross-county constituency with Halstead in Essex. A much smaller area in the east around Ixworth would become part of another new seat, called Suffolk North. The remaining area, centred on Newmarket, would then gain the town of Bury St Edmunds - and the name of West Suffolk constituency is to be changed to "Newmarket and Bury St Edmunds" to reflect this. With all these changes it looks that there will be some competition for the new seats. Why remove him now but wait until the boundary review finishes its work and remove him then. On the initial proposals I believe he’s being merged with Jo Churchill’s Bury St Edmunds seat, which would suggest one would have to be looking elsewhere.
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Post by robert1 on Jul 1, 2021 10:11:50 GMT
There is a new seat created in the area with substantial disruption to both. It is almost therefore a case of 2 MPs for 3 seats.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 1, 2021 13:53:27 GMT
There was a time when the local Tory association, with the right chairman, might have made his position untenable. Do you really think he can pitch up at the Association AGM with his new bird? Do you really think that his wife has no friends at all locally? James Gray survived, and he was knobbing another bird when his wife had cancer.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2021 14:22:37 GMT
Hancock will remain an MP and probably even end up back on the front bench once the dust settles from all this. Not that I want him to but it seems to be how these things work
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2021 15:33:06 GMT
Hancock will remain an MP and probably even end up back on the front bench once the dust settles from all this. Not that I want him to but it seems to be how these things work Not sure, he was due for the chop for being useless even before the hypocrisy. The shagging won't do for him, not with Johnson as PM, although his missus might come for his tripes with a blunt knife.
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