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Post by oldhamexile on Mar 11, 2021 18:38:30 GMT
Also, it's a seat which never swings very much at all. And where well regarded and locally focused backbench MPs have been the norm. Tracey Brabin is not typical and it wouldn't surprise me if the parties went local next time. An Asian Labour Candidate would not be a surprise. Tracy is local, she was born in the constituency, her mum still lives there, and whilst work took her all over the place, she was a member of the CLP at the time of her initial selection; however I’d concede it’s likely the next candidate will be from within the Asian community. Such as the Kirklees council leader Shabir Pandor, whose Batley West ward is part of this constituency?
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 11, 2021 19:50:33 GMT
Tracy is local, she was born in the constituency, her mum still lives there, and whilst work took her all over the place, she was a member of the CLP at the time of her initial selection; however I’d concede it’s likely the next candidate will be from within the Asian community. Such as the Kirklees council leader Shabir Pandor, whose Batley West ward is part of this constituency? I’m nowhere near familiar enough with the constituency to know him or local issues. What I’d caution before getting too deep into guessing names is a theory I’ve seen in multiple sources that Tracy is looking for an out because the boundary changes are expected to be very unhelpful to Labour, but that’s just what I’ve read.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,040
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Post by ilerda on Mar 11, 2021 20:10:33 GMT
Will it not have to be an all woman shortlist? Or does the woman replacing woman rule not apply for by-elections?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2021 20:31:31 GMT
Will it not have to be an all woman shortlist? Or does the woman replacing woman rule not apply for by-elections? Well, is that argument lessened by the fact that over half of Labour MPs are now women?
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 11, 2021 20:44:07 GMT
Such as the Kirklees council leader Shabir Pandor, whose Batley West ward is part of this constituency? I’m nowhere near familiar enough with the constituency to know him or local issues. What I’d caution before getting too deep into guessing names is a theory I’ve seen in multiple sources that Tracy is looking for an out because the boundary changes are expected to be very unhelpful to Labour, but that’s just what I’ve read. I mean you can never tell with these things but I doubt that's the reason The two most likely scenario's for this seat in the boundary review is the "minimal change" route which won't change the notionals by all that much Id have thought and would almost certainly leave the seat as notionally Labour The alternative is probably some kind of compact Batley and Dewsbury type seat which (given that Dewsbury has a Tory MP) she would be the default Labour candidate and such a seat would actually be safer than her current seat Of course you never know with the boundary commission and you could see a Batley and Morley seat emerge instead which would obviously be more of a challenge but the BC would prefer to avoid cross Borough seats and I think such a seat might be outside of quota anyway I dont know I just think its far to presumptive to assume that's her reasoning
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 16, 2021 11:45:34 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 296
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Post by Terry Weldon on Mar 16, 2021 11:58:48 GMT
2019 result shows a 3 way marginal. Big question is what will UKIP/Brexit/Reform voters do?
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,626
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 16, 2021 12:01:02 GMT
2019 result shows a 3 way marginal. Big question is what will UKIP/Brexit/Reform voters do? Perhaps a bigger question is will Labour be able to a) win back the swing voters who went Tory in 2019 (as most must have done) and b) get their voters who sat out in 2019 to actually vote
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 16, 2021 13:01:10 GMT
Given the reasons for him stepping down, in the current climate, that really cant help Labour can it? Add in the "vaccine bounce" and the apparent "5th avenue" factor much of the electorate seems to apply to this government, I think a Tory win is quite likely - unless Reform [or whatever nomenclature the Farage cult is standing under these days] decides to stand and picks up 5/6/7/8% which could make it anyone's guess.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,254
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Post by peterl on Mar 16, 2021 13:03:55 GMT
The Brexit Party in 2019 will have attracted support from Labour voters as well as Tories. Red UKIP was a thing in the north and I'm sure some of that translated to Brexit also. Reform on the other hand may well appeal more to people who lean right.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 16, 2021 13:07:23 GMT
Given the reasons for him stepping down, in the current climate, that really cant help Labour can it? Add in the "vaccine bounce" and the apparent "5th avenue" factor much of the electorate seems to apply to this government, I think a Tory win is quite likely - unless Reform [or whatever nomenclature the Farage cult is standing under these days] decides to stand and picks up 5/6/7/8% which could make it anyone's guess. Might be interesting to see whether the Tories can fight on two fronts or prioritise re-electing the Tees Valley Mayor; I know there’s symbolism in gaining a seat like Hartlepool, but I wonder if there’s more long-term benefit in the Mayor actually delivering rather than just being lobby fodder in an 80 seat majority government.
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Post by grahammurray on Mar 19, 2021 1:47:07 GMT
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Post by connor on Mar 27, 2021 14:16:20 GMT
So with Kenny McAskill now on Alba and contesting for a regional seat in the Scottish Parliament, is it possible that there could be an East Lothian by-election?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 27, 2021 14:21:25 GMT
So with Kenny McAskill now on Alba and contesting for a regional seat in the Scottish Parliament, is it possible that there could be an East Lothian by-election? Why? Alba don't have any rules on double-jobbing. Salmond did it himself more than once.
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Post by connor on Mar 27, 2021 15:06:26 GMT
I'm not saying he should, I'm just suggesting that he could. But yeah he might likely double job which I really don't like as it makes politicians look more greedy.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,360
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 27, 2021 18:01:07 GMT
I'm not saying he should, I'm just suggesting that he could. But yeah he might likely double job which I really don't like as it makes politicians look more greedy. He needs to get elected first, which is very far from certain.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 27, 2021 18:06:57 GMT
He's seeking a dual mandate. There will be no by-election.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,360
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 27, 2021 18:22:19 GMT
I'm sure that will go down well with the electorate...
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 28, 2021 0:21:51 GMT
So with Kenny McAskill now on Alba and contesting for a regional seat in the Scottish Parliament, is it possible that there could be an East Lothian by-election? There are also calls for a by-election in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath following the defection of the MP from SNP to Alba.
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Post by edinburghtory on Mar 28, 2021 20:07:34 GMT
So with Kenny McAskill now on Alba and contesting for a regional seat in the Scottish Parliament, is it possible that there could be an East Lothian by-election? As an East Lothian resident I doubt very much he will resign his seat in Westminster that would suggest even a modicum of respect for the people he is meant to represent here. I am not making a comment on double jobbing I am not a fan of it but I would not ban it I think that is for politicians and their voters to decide if they want that. This is also not a comment on nationalists there was one candidate for their nomination I am sure, whilst I wouldn't have agreed with or voted for, would have worked to support East Lothian communities and residents on issues other than independence(I have actually worked very well with him as a community activist). I am commenting on the individual, Kenny MacAskill, alone. His history on East Lothian is a litany of behaviour that shows his lack of respect for the people that live here. - Promised to move here, he never did instead spends his time in Moray
- I believe before the pandemic hit the surgeries he attended were in the single digits
- He is standing in a region which doesn't include the vast majority of the seat
- On multiple occasions during the campaign at hustings he was completely unable to comment on local issues and often wasn't even aware of where the place was
- Said during that campaign that he had been against the closure of Haddington Sheriff Court despite being the minister that closed it
All Mr MacAskill was interested in was one final spell in the spotlight, so he could spout his bile, and no doubt considering his personal life the lure of subsided bars was a welcome additional reason.
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