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Post by southernliberal on Feb 1, 2021 13:12:08 GMT
Thought I would summarise all the potential future by-elections which could potentially take place this year in one post - note that some of the legal actions could potentially trigger a recall petition (after May, as all are currently suspended under the Coronavirus Act) leading to a by-election. Let me know if I've missed anything out! Potential by-elections as a result of MP being elected to another post (note however that legally there is nothing stopping any MPs from holding a dual mandate)Birmingham Hodge Hill - Liam Bryne - Labour - Selected as Labour candidate for West Midlands mayoral election (note that while no public polling exists on this race, I think its fair to say Labour are probably the underdogs). Batley and Spen - Tracy Brabin - Labour - Selected as Labour candidate for West Yorkshire mayoral election (Labour almost certainly favourites to win). Moray - Douglas Ross - Conservatives - Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, almost certainly will be given a high spot on the Highlands & Islands list (was given #1 spot in 2016) to ensure his election to the Scottish Parliament. Airdrie and Shotts - Neil Gray - SNP - Selected as SNP candidate for Scottish Parliament constituency of the same name, under SNP rules individuals cannot hold dual mandates. Potential by-elections as a result of legal/court/police actions Rutherglen and Hamilton West - Margaret Ferrier - SNP, sitting as Independent - Was arrested on the 4th January over COVID rules breach that took place in September. Leicester East - Claudia Webbe - Labour, sitting as Independent - Due to go on trial on March 16th, over harassment allegations. Poplar and Limehouse - Apsana Begum - Labour - Due to go on a four day trial, beginning July 21st, over housing fraud allegations.
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Post by heslingtonian on Feb 2, 2021 14:00:48 GMT
Have Byrne or Brabin said they would stand down from Parliament if elected as a Metro Mayor? Dan Jarvis has obviously set a precedent that it is possible to serve concurrently.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 2, 2021 14:27:47 GMT
Have Byrne or Brabin said they would stand down from Parliament if elected as a Metro Mayor? Dan Jarvis has obviously set a precedent that it is possible to serve concurrently. It depends on the job; Jarvis was allowed to continue as the South Yorkshire Mayor has no real powers, they basically just Chair meetings of the Combined Authority, but have no policy making function or budget. West Midlands is more in the Merseyside or Greater Manchester mould so Byrne would presumably have to stand down as Labour doesn’t allow someone to hold two paid elected roles. I’m guessing West Yorkshire is similar, which may be why Brabin’s going for it as there seems to be an acceptance that the boundary review will pretty much obliterate Batley and Spen.
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Feb 2, 2021 14:38:02 GMT
Didn't Ross say he wasn't going to resign from Westminster even if he gets elected to Holyrood? SNP can hardly complain given Salmond's previous dual mandate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2021 8:07:55 GMT
Thought I would summarise all the potential future by-elections which could potentially take place this year in one post - note that some of the legal actions could potentially trigger a recall petition (after May, as all are currently suspended under the Coronavirus Act) leading to a by-election. Let me know if I've missed anything out! Potential by-elections as a result of MP being elected to another post (note however that legally there is nothing stopping any MPs from holding a dual mandate)Birmingham Hodge Hill - Liam Bryne - Labour - Selected as Labour candidate for West Midlands mayoral election (note that while no public polling exists on this race, I think its fair to say Labour are probably the underdogs). Batley and Spen - Tracy Brabin - Labour - Selected as Labour candidate for West Yorkshire mayoral election (Labour almost certainly favourites to win). Moray - Douglas Ross - Conservatives - Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, almost certainly will be given a high spot on the Highlands & Islands list (was given #1 spot in 2016) to ensure his election to the Scottish Parliament. Airdrie and Shotts - Neil Gray - SNP - Selected as SNP candidate for Scottish Parliament constituency of the same name, under SNP rules individuals cannot hold dual mandates. Potential by-elections as a result of legal/court/police actions Rutherglen and Hamilton West - Margaret Ferrier - SNP, sitting as Independent - Was arrested on the 4th January over COVID rules breach that took place in September. Leicester East - Claudia Webbe - Labour, sitting as Independent - Due to go on trial on March 16th, over harassment allegations. Poplar and Limehouse - Apsana Begum - Labour - Due to go on a four day trial, beginning July 21st, over housing fraud allegations. | Birmingham Hodge Hill | Liam Bryne | To contest West Midlands mayoral election | 28,655 (63.7) | | Batley and Spen | Tracy Brabin | To contest West Yorkshire mayoral election | 3,525 (6.7) | | Moray | Douglas Ross | Leader of the Scottish Conservatives; to ensure election to Holyrood | 513 (1.1) | | Airdrie and Shotts | Neil Grey | To stand for Scottish Parliament in same constituency | 5,201 (13.1) | | Rutherglen and Hamilton West | Margaret Farrier | Sits as independent. Suspended and subsequently arrested over COVID breach | 5,230 (9.7%) | | Leicester East | Claudia Webb | Sits as independent. Suspended and charged with assault allegations | 6,019 (12.2) | | Poplar and Limehouse | Aspana Begum | Charged with housing benefit allegations | 28,904 (47.2) |
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Post by atraffordlibdem on Feb 8, 2021 21:59:52 GMT
Thoughts on a late summer/October ish by election in Batley and Spen? Could be interesting with that majority and these local independents?
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 9, 2021 16:21:29 GMT
Thoughts on a late summer/October ish by election in Batley and Spen? Could be interesting with that majority and these local independents? Almost certain Labour hold, but possibly by the kind of margin that makes brainless journalists who have never been north of Luton start banging on about "Labour losing its base" or whatever other nonsense it is this time
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Post by elinorhelyn on Mar 7, 2021 21:15:05 GMT
Thoughts on a late summer/October ish by election in Batley and Spen? Could be interesting with that majority and these local independents? Almost certain Labour hold, but possibly by the kind of margin that makes brainless journalists who have never been north of Luton start banging on about "Labour losing its base" or whatever other nonsense it is this time Are you sure? Current YouGov poll with a bigger lead than 2019 spells trouble for this seat. I could this definitely being a freak gain, off the back of vaccine bounce and post-COVID economic boom. The kind of one that goes back to Labour in a general election. I don't see this as a typical Red Wall seat as their is a large Asian vote in this seat, that if motivated, can save Labour's bacon, may be if they select an Asian candidate they'd be motivated. Dunno if I'm crazy but maybe Ed Balls would be a good choice, former MP from nearby Morley and Outwood, Labour would benefit from a Big Beast like him to make their lightweight shadow cabinet better. But nonetheless, this by-election will be a big test for Starmer. I think his job is on the line here. Unlike Corbyn when he lost Copeland, I think Starmer will consider his position, I don't he'll be ousted, cos Labour don't do that.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 7, 2021 22:17:40 GMT
Not sure that bacon is what the Asian population there would want to save.
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Post by MacShimidh on Mar 9, 2021 23:22:52 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 11, 2021 12:44:35 GMT
Almost certain Labour hold, but possibly by the kind of margin that makes brainless journalists who have never been north of Luton start banging on about "Labour losing its base" or whatever other nonsense it is this time Are you sure? Current YouGov poll with a bigger lead than 2019 spells trouble for this seat. I could this definitely being a freak gain, off the back of vaccine bounce and post-COVID economic boom. The kind of one that goes back to Labour in a general election. I don't see this as a typical Red Wall seat as their is a large Asian vote in this seat, that if motivated, can save Labour's bacon, may be if they select an Asian candidate they'd be motivated. Dunno if I'm crazy but maybe Ed Balls would be a good choice, former MP from nearby Morley and Outwood, Labour would benefit from a Big Beast like him to make their lightweight shadow cabinet better. But nonetheless, this by-election will be a big test for Starmer. I think his job is on the line here. Unlike Corbyn when he lost Copeland, I think Starmer will consider his position, I don't he'll be ousted, cos Labour don't do that. Aren't you going just a bit into orbit here about a single poll which shows the Tories doing a solitary point better than at the GE?? (when, lest we forget, Labour still had a majority of 3.5k in this seat)
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 11, 2021 13:12:59 GMT
Are you sure? Current YouGov poll with a bigger lead than 2019 spells trouble for this seat. I could this definitely being a freak gain, off the back of vaccine bounce and post-COVID economic boom. The kind of one that goes back to Labour in a general election. I don't see this as a typical Red Wall seat as their is a large Asian vote in this seat, that if motivated, can save Labour's bacon, may be if they select an Asian candidate they'd be motivated. Dunno if I'm crazy but maybe Ed Balls would be a good choice, former MP from nearby Morley and Outwood, Labour would benefit from a Big Beast like him to make their lightweight shadow cabinet better. But nonetheless, this by-election will be a big test for Starmer. I think his job is on the line here. Unlike Corbyn when he lost Copeland, I think Starmer will consider his position, I don't he'll be ousted, cos Labour don't do that. Aren't you going just a bit into orbit here about a single poll which shows the Tories doing a solitary point better than at the GE?? (when, lest we forget, Labour still had a majority of 3.5k in this seat) Also, it's a seat which never swings very much at all. And where well regarded and locally focused backbench MPs have been the norm. Tracey Brabin is not typical and it wouldn't surprise me if the parties went local next time. An Asian Labour Candidate would not be a surprise.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 11, 2021 13:16:13 GMT
Are you sure? Current YouGov poll with a bigger lead than 2019 spells trouble for this seat. I could this definitely being a freak gain, off the back of vaccine bounce and post-COVID economic boom. The kind of one that goes back to Labour in a general election. I don't see this as a typical Red Wall seat as their is a large Asian vote in this seat, that if motivated, can save Labour's bacon, may be if they select an Asian candidate they'd be motivated. Dunno if I'm crazy but maybe Ed Balls would be a good choice, former MP from nearby Morley and Outwood, Labour would benefit from a Big Beast like him to make their lightweight shadow cabinet better. But nonetheless, this by-election will be a big test for Starmer. I think his job is on the line here. Unlike Corbyn when he lost Copeland, I think Starmer will consider his position, I don't he'll be ousted, cos Labour don't do that. Aren't you going just a bit into orbit here about a single poll which shows the Tories doing a solitary point better than at the GE?? (when, lest we forget, Labour still had a majority of 3.5k in this seat) And let's not forget that that poll is also probably an outlier given how much wore it was the other polls around it
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 11, 2021 13:53:20 GMT
Aren't you going just a bit into orbit here about a single poll which shows the Tories doing a solitary point better than at the GE?? (when, lest we forget, Labour still had a majority of 3.5k in this seat) Also, it's a seat which never swings very much at all. And where well regarded and locally focused backbench MPs have been the norm. Tracey Brabin is not typical and it wouldn't surprise me if the parties went local next time. An Asian Labour Candidate would not be a surprise. Tracy is local, she was born in the constituency, her mum still lives there, and whilst work took her all over the place, she was a member of the CLP at the time of her initial selection; however I’d concede it’s likely the next candidate will be from within the Asian community.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 11, 2021 13:58:19 GMT
Also, it's a seat which never swings very much at all. And where well regarded and locally focused backbench MPs have been the norm. Tracey Brabin is not typical and it wouldn't surprise me if the parties went local next time. An Asian Labour Candidate would not be a surprise. Tracy is local, she was born in the constituency, her mum still lives there, and whilst work took her all over the place, she was a member of the CLP at the time of her initial selection; however I’d concede it’s likely the next candidate will be from within the Asian community. Sure....but she wasn't really viewed in that way and the circumstances of her election were clearly very odd. Also she was seen as a potential high flyer rather than a Mike Wood or Elizabeth Peacock figure. That's really the sort of MP I was thinking of.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Mar 11, 2021 16:24:25 GMT
Aren't you going just a bit into orbit here about a single poll which shows the Tories doing a solitary point better than at the GE?? (when, lest we forget, Labour still had a majority of 3.5k in this seat) And let's not forget that that poll is also probably an outlier given how much wore it was the other polls around it But let's not also forget that the 3.5k majority flatters Labour here because of the 6.5k vote for the 'Heavy Woollen' candidate in the GE, a good deal of which would have gone Tory/Brexit Party had Paul Halloran not stood.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 11, 2021 16:27:53 GMT
And let's not forget that that poll is also probably an outlier given how much wore it was the other polls around it But let's not also forget that the 3.5k majority flatters Labour here because of the 6.5k vote for the 'Heavy Woollen' candidate in the GE, a good deal of which would have gone Tory/Brexit Party had Paul Halloran not stood. Given that the Labour vote went down by over 12% and the Heavy Woollen got just over 12% it would seem to have affected the Labour vote more (Tory vote down by 2.8%).
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 11, 2021 16:30:59 GMT
Tracy is local, she was born in the constituency, her mum still lives there, and whilst work took her all over the place, she was a member of the CLP at the time of her initial selection; however I’d concede it’s likely the next candidate will be from within the Asian community. Sure....but she wasn't really viewed in that way and the circumstances of her election were clearly very odd. Also she was seen as a potential high flyer rather than a Mike Wood or Elizabeth Peacock figure. That's really the sort of MP I was thinking of. My Auntie, at 94 still a lifelong Conservative, living in Birstall in the constituency, certainly regards her as a “hometown girl made good” (not enough to vote for her in 2019 but...).
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 11, 2021 16:32:48 GMT
And let's not forget that that poll is also probably an outlier given how much wore it was the other polls around it But let's not also forget that the 3.5k majority flatters Labour here because of the 6.5k vote for the 'Heavy Woollen' candidate in the GE, a good deal of which would have gone Tory/Brexit Party had Paul Halloran not stood. The whole point of voting for a candidate like that is to avoid voting Conservative; I don't think their absence would have helped the Tories that much
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 11, 2021 17:18:38 GMT
I'm not sure local election results bear out the theory that the Heavy Woollen District Independents draw their vote mainly from anti-Labour voters. They have ended up challenging Labour in their wards but that's just because they are Labour held at the moment. Their intervention seems to have taken votes from both Labour and Conservative, but particularly heavily from minor parties - the very transferrable "neither of the main parties" vote.
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