right
Conservative
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Post by right on Nov 4, 2021 18:58:49 GMT
Is there a chance of an independent anti sleaze candidate getting traction?
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Post by tonyhill on Nov 4, 2021 19:01:49 GMT
No.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 4, 2021 19:02:33 GMT
Hypothetically, had there been a by-election here in 1995, who would have won?
(The same question could be asked for Old Bexley & Sidcup.)
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:05:43 GMT
Hypothetically, had there been a by-election here in 1995, who would have won? (The same question could be asked for Old Bexley & Sidcup.) Bexley - Labour North Shropshire - Lib Dems |
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islington
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Post by islington on Nov 4, 2021 19:07:31 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history And in further good news for the LDs, I believe Lembit Opik is available. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:09:06 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history And in further good news for the LDs, I believe Lembit Opik is available. Not sure he's much of a Lib Dem these days. He was last spotted on GB News. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 4, 2021 19:12:32 GMT
What a cock up. All Paterson had to do was apologise and accept his short suspension. Instead this has completely blown up in his face. At least he has learnt a valuable life lesson that actions have consequences.
Doubt it, when one takes a victim mentality one doesn't take any blame on oneself.
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:13:27 GMT
Well, the first problem was that he had no previous links to the county, let alone the constituency, and actually lived in Kent at the time. LibDem leaflets referred to him as 'the Conservative from Kent' rather than by his name. Again, this might not have been quite as damaging had the previous couple of incumbents been much use as constituency members: as it was there was a perception that the area was being taken for granted and having some idiot from foreign parts foisted on it.* And the second problem was his personality, which was frankly noxious. He came across as rude, arrogant and entitled and managed to upset a surprisingly large number of people who mattered, including in the Conservative Association. Word got around pretty quickly. *The odd part is that he followed through with his pledge to move to the constituency, despite his defeat. He became active in local politics and was a councillor in Ludlow for a time, as was his wife.Has there ever been a "worst Parliamentary candidate thread" rather than worst MP? Martin Taylor-Smith would be in the top 10 I would say along with the likes of Joanne Cash, Ed Matts, Maria Hutchings and Deirdre Wood. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 4, 2021 19:13:28 GMT
Hypothetically, had there been a by-election here in 1995, who would have won? (The same question could be asked for Old Bexley & Sidcup.) Bexley - Labour North Shropshire - Lib Dems That would have been my guess too. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 19:13:43 GMT
This is the perfect opportunity for Labour and the LDs to stand down for each other. Labour could be the main opposition party in Old Bexley and Sidcup and the LDs in North Shropshire for instance. Which would instantly compromise the LD's ability to peel off soft Conservative votes in North Shropshire. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 19:15:04 GMT
And in further good news for the LDs, I believe Lembit Opik is available. Not sure he's much of a Lib Dem these days. He was last spotted on GB News. The last I heard he'd been expelled. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2021 19:19:54 GMT
Well, the first problem was that he had no previous links to the county, let alone the constituency, and actually lived in Kent at the time. LibDem leaflets referred to him as 'the Conservative from Kent' rather than by his name. Again, this might not have been quite as damaging had the previous couple of incumbents been much use as constituency members: as it was there was a perception that the area was being taken for granted and having some idiot from foreign parts foisted on it.* And the second problem was his personality, which was frankly noxious. He came across as rude, arrogant and entitled and managed to upset a surprisingly large number of people who mattered, including in the Conservative Association. Word got around pretty quickly. *The odd part is that he followed through with his pledge to move to the constituency, despite his defeat. He became active in local politics and was a councillor in Ludlow for a time, as was his wife.Has there ever been a "worst Parliamentary candidate thread" rather than worst MP? Martin Taylor-Smith would be in the top 10 I would say along with the likes of Joanne Cash, Ed Matts, Maria Hutchings and Deirdre Wood. Mark Clarke surely? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:22:12 GMT
Has there ever been a "worst Parliamentary candidate thread" rather than worst MP? Martin Taylor-Smith would be in the top 10 I would say along with the likes of Joanne Cash, Ed Matts, Maria Hutchings and Deirdre Wood. Mark Clarke surely? Had tried to erase him from my memory! As awful as he is as a human being I don't think his personality had too much impact on the election result unlike the others I mention |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 4, 2021 19:24:09 GMT
Someone's joke - note the real Owen Paterson has one 't'. He should get the Manor of Northstead (Neil Gray got the Chiltern Hundreds) but there is no appointment from the Treasury as of yet. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2021 19:27:10 GMT
labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? Looking at the result they probably didn’t campaign much though, if at all, or even may have encouraged people to vote LD. Their vote was roughly halved from 1997, down 12%. Probably not many results like that for Labour in 2001 elsewhere other than other LD targets/holds (Norfolk North comes to mind in a similar way) Anyone know if Paterson’s majorities have built up to what they are due to a substantial personal popular vote or that it should just be another dyed in the wool Tory seat? Labour did very well in 1997 but he substantially increased his majority in 2001, again probably weren’t many big swings to the tories either in that election… other than Tatton for obvious reasons… could this be another Tatton? I realise people may have forgotten about Chesham and Amersham! (Not from an LD gain point of view, but a ‘punishing the tories’ kind of view in some of their ‘taken for granted’ seats) This isn't Chesham & Amersham |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 4, 2021 19:28:04 GMT
Well, the first problem was that he had no previous links to the county, let alone the constituency, and actually lived in Kent at the time. LibDem leaflets referred to him as 'the Conservative from Kent' rather than by his name. Again, this might not have been quite as damaging had the previous couple of incumbents been much use as constituency members: as it was there was a perception that the area was being taken for granted and having some idiot from foreign parts foisted on it.* And the second problem was his personality, which was frankly noxious. He came across as rude, arrogant and entitled and managed to upset a surprisingly large number of people who mattered, including in the Conservative Association. Word got around pretty quickly. *The odd part is that he followed through with his pledge to move to the constituency, despite his defeat. He became active in local politics and was a councillor in Ludlow for a time, as was his wife.Has there ever been a "worst Parliamentary candidate thread" rather than worst MP? Martin Taylor-Smith would be in the top 10 I would say along with the likes of Joanne Cash, Ed Matts, Maria Hutchings and Deirdre Wood. There have been many dreadful and wholly inappropriate candidates, but mostly no-one notices. In the old days when the media paid attention to by-elections they were an exception, and I remember Deirdre Wood as hapless rather than sinister or unpleasant. At general elections you really have to be a serial killer or paid up member of the nazi party before anyone notices, unless of course you are standing in central London. |
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2021 19:50:36 GMT
Circumstances matter a lot - if the Conservatives were in better shape nationally at the time, then Taylor-Smith would have won despite himself. Were they winning nationally then he would have won quite comfortably. But as things were otherwise, he lost.
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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:57:37 GMT
Circumstances matter a lot - if the Conservatives were in better shape nationally at the time, then Taylor-Smith would have won despite himself. Were they winning nationally then he would have won quite comfortably. But as things were otherwise, he lost. True, although it stood out as an appalling result even by the standards of that election. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Nov 4, 2021 19:59:37 GMT
This is the perfect opportunity for Labour and the LDs to stand down for each other. Labour could be the main opposition party in Old Bexley and Sidcup and the LDs in North Shropshire for instance. I thought so too, but actually read his letter and he's standing down from politics |
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Post by hugh01 on Nov 4, 2021 20:10:47 GMT
I’m terms of demographics or just Lib Dem track record? Demographics. Bishop's Castle, Clun, Ludlow, Church Stretton... nothing like them in N Shrops. N Shropshire is more akin to adjacent parts of Cheshire and Staffordshire. And the Oswestry area more like Wrexhamshire. This is very true. Made up of the old :- North Shropshire District Council - Wem, Whitchurch, Prees - very Cheshireish, Market Drayton more potteries Oswestry Borough Council - Oswestry, probably the most Welsh Town in England, a lot of the hinterland is in Wales. People more likely to have connections to Wrexham or Llangollen than Shrewsbury. Villages in England but with names like Llanymynech, Llanyblodwel, Pant, Llynclys |
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