Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2021 15:49:44 GMT
If the Lib Dems can’t win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the yellow team. I was about to say right will be along in a second to tell us all about how failing to win this would be the death of the Labour Party |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 4, 2021 15:55:47 GMT
Labour were second here in 2015/17/19, though there was something of a LD recovery in 2019 - but only to 10%. So Labour should be the obvious challengers, unless there's a ceiling to their aspirations here?
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Nov 4, 2021 16:20:20 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history
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right
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Post by right on Nov 4, 2021 16:23:04 GMT
If the Lib Dems can’t win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the yellow team. I was about to say right will be along in a second to tell us all about how failing to win this would be the death of the Labour Party This could perhaps be a test if Labour were claiming to be on course for a 1997 style victory. As no one claims they are, then it's not a test. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2021 16:28:15 GMT
The 2019 result was very similar here to Old Bexley and Sidcup.
Shropshire North Con 63, Lab 22, LD 10
OB & S Con 65, Lab 23, LD 8
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Post by westmercian on Nov 4, 2021 16:33:08 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 4, 2021 16:39:29 GMT
The 2019 result here was very similar here to Old Bexley and Sidcup. Shropshire North Con 63, Lab 22, LD 10 OB & S Con 65, Lab 23, LD 8 25% better! |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 4, 2021 16:39:45 GMT
If the Lib Dems can’t win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the yellow team. I was about to say right will be along in a second to tell us all about how failing to win this would be the death of the Labour Party Surely the Lib Dems /Labour need to win this and Old Bexley and Sidcup and manage Spurs to the Premiership title, while breaking the land speed record and winning the Booker prize before they can really say they are a serious force again  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 4, 2021 16:42:28 GMT
What's North Shropshire in Welsh?
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2021 16:45:31 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! The LibDems were only able to win Ludlow because the Conservatives made a terrible error in their choice of candidate (and even this might not have mattered had the retiring incumbent been an attentive MP) and did not realise that the seat was in danger until the last moment. The LibDem candidate was also already well known locally and was from a Conservative family and was thus seen by enough discontented Conservatives as 'safe' to vote for - just the once. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2021 16:47:25 GMT
What's North Shropshire in Welsh? Gogledd Swydd Amwythig. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2021 16:47:55 GMT
I predict a Lib Dem gain. Starting from only 10% is not the significant factor. Needing a swing of "only" 26% is the significant factor.
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Post by afleitch on Nov 4, 2021 17:07:17 GMT
It's been held by Paterson since 1997 (Labour were 4 points behind) and he's built his vote up in every subsequent election. So you're looking at a potentially substantial personal vote.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 4, 2021 17:14:32 GMT
SNP gain in my opinion
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 4, 2021 17:21:07 GMT
I'd have thought any idea of a Liberal Democrat gain was barking, before yesterday. Now, I think it's a distinct possibility. The sleaze angle never goes down well, and the government were ones bizarrely shovelling the shit onto themselves.
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Post by westmercian on Nov 4, 2021 17:23:29 GMT
N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! The LibDems were only able to win Ludlow because the Conservatives made a terrible error in their choice of candidate (and even this might not have mattered had the retiring incumbent been an attentive MP) and did not realise that the seat was in danger until the last moment. The LibDem candidate was also already well known locally and was from a Conservative family and was thus seen by enough discontented Conservatives as 'safe' to vote for - just the once. So what the Lib Dems need in N Salop is a conservative candidate... And for Labour not to stand. (To replicate Ludlow.) I can see the Tory vote heavily down, but the left leaning voters split three ways... |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 4, 2021 17:28:13 GMT
Nailed on for the Scottish Whigs, eh @boogieeck? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 4, 2021 17:36:33 GMT
The LibDems were only able to win Ludlow because the Conservatives made a terrible error in their choice of candidate (and even this might not have mattered had the retiring incumbent been an attentive MP) and did not realise that the seat was in danger until the last moment. The LibDem candidate was also already well known locally and was from a Conservative family and was thus seen by enough discontented Conservatives as 'safe' to vote for - just the once. So what the Lib Dems need in N Salop is a conservative candidate... And for Labour not to stand. (To replicate Ludlow.) I can see the Tory vote heavily down, but the left leaning voters split three ways... labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 4, 2021 17:38:43 GMT
N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! The LibDems were only able to win Ludlow because the Conservatives made a terrible error in their choice of candidate. what was wrong with him? |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 4, 2021 17:42:54 GMT
So what the Lib Dems need in N Salop is a conservative candidate... And for Labour not to stand. (To replicate Ludlow.) I can see the Tory vote heavily down, but the left leaning voters split three ways... labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? Looking at the result they probably didn’t campaign much though, if at all, or even may have encouraged people to vote LD. Their vote was roughly halved from 1997, down 12%. Probably not many results like that for Labour in 2001 elsewhere other than other LD targets/holds (Norfolk North comes to mind in a similar way) Anyone know if Paterson’s majorities have built up to what they are due to a substantial personal popular vote or that it should just be another dyed in the wool Tory seat? Labour did very well in 1997 but he substantially increased his majority in 2001, again probably weren’t many big swings to the tories either in that election… other than Tatton for obvious reasons… could this be another Tatton? I realise people may have forgotten about Chesham and Amersham! (Not from an LD gain point of view, but a ‘punishing the tories’ kind of view in some of their ‘taken for granted’ seats) |
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