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Post by westmercian on Nov 4, 2021 17:46:13 GMT
So what the Lib Dems need in N Salop is a conservative candidate... And for Labour not to stand. (To replicate Ludlow.) I can see the Tory vote heavily down, but the left leaning voters split three ways... labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? Oh they stand, but only pick up a handful of votes, largely from Broseley... I see they came a close third in 1997 though. But I'll say it again: unless the Lib Dems can rally all the non-Tory voters to their flag, it's going to be a matter of the Tory candidate winning due to split opposition. There is no clear "challenger" party in N Shropshire. And the Greens will be buoyed by their success in Oswestry earlier this year. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
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Post by peterl on Nov 4, 2021 17:54:52 GMT
Worker's Party gain. If Galloway can not win here after Patterson's behaviour has highlighted the essentially corrupt nature of capitalism and the need for a one man ego outfit to stand up to it, where can he win?
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2021 17:58:18 GMT
Very important and exciting and world-shattering news which completely changes the whole of everything:
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2021 18:05:39 GMT
The LibDems were only able to win Ludlow because the Conservatives made a terrible error in their choice of candidate. what was wrong with him? Well, the first problem was that he had no previous links to the county, let alone the constituency, and actually lived in Kent at the time. LibDem leaflets referred to him as 'the Conservative from Kent' rather than by his name. Again, this might not have been quite as damaging had the previous couple of incumbents been much use as constituency members: as it was there was a perception that the area was being taken for granted and having some idiot from foreign parts foisted on it.* And the second problem was his personality, which was frankly noxious. He came across as rude, arrogant and entitled and managed to upset a surprisingly large number of people who mattered, including in the Conservative Association. Word got around pretty quickly. *The odd part is that he followed through with his pledge to move to the constituency, despite his defeat. He became active in local politics and was a councillor in Ludlow for a time, as was his wife. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 4, 2021 18:12:37 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! In terms of demographics or just Lib Dem track record? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 4, 2021 18:13:41 GMT
Worker's Party gain. If Galloway can not win here after Patterson's behaviour has highlighted the essentially corrupt nature of capitalism and the need for a one man ego outfit to stand up to it, where can he win? Baghdad? |
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Post by westmercian on Nov 4, 2021 18:15:54 GMT
N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! I’m terms of demographics or just Lib Dem track record? Demographics. Bishop's Castle, Clun, Ludlow, Church Stretton... nothing like them in N Shrops. N Shropshire is more akin to adjacent parts of Cheshire and Staffordshire. And the Oswestry area more like Wrexhamshire. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 4, 2021 18:21:45 GMT
Is there enough time for a by election this year? Only if the writ is moved tomorrow or next week. My prediction is that it will be held in January 2022. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Nov 4, 2021 18:24:25 GMT
Could we move the relevant posts from rumoured and ramped here, or is this a real passion in the neck? Guessing it will be the latter
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 18:24:26 GMT
If the Lib Dems can’t win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the yellow team. Have you ever been to the constituency? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 18:27:46 GMT
What's North Shropshire in Welsh? Y wlad goll. (The lost land)  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 18:35:46 GMT
If there was only one anti-Tory candidate they'd stand a good chance of winning. But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind. An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win. So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2021 18:38:34 GMT
Worker's Party gain. If Galloway can not win here after Patterson's behaviour has highlighted the essentially corrupt nature of capitalism and the need for a one man ego outfit to stand up to it, where can he win? Please let me know what you’re drinking, it must be good 🍺🥃 |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 4, 2021 18:38:56 GMT
If there was only one anti-Tory candidate they'd stand a good chance of winning. But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind. An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win. So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? Whoever it is, we need a white suit. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 18:41:32 GMT
But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind. An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win. So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? Whoever it is, we need a white suit. As a former golfer Woosnam would be familiar with wearing stupid clothing. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 4, 2021 18:49:59 GMT
If the Lib Dems can’t win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the yellow team. They got 10% of the vote last time, compared to 22% for Labour. I grew up in this constituency so I know it quite well. There is quite a bit of Ancestral strength for the Lib Dem’s here though. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 4, 2021 18:52:52 GMT
So what the Lib Dems need in N Salop is a conservative candidate... And for Labour not to stand. (To replicate Ludlow.) I can see the Tory vote heavily down, but the left leaning voters split three ways... labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? Yes they did. IIRC Nigel Knowles was the candidate |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Nov 4, 2021 18:53:37 GMT
My goodness! The number of bad takes here in such a short time is breath-taking. I suppose we should be thankful that no-one has said b*** w*** yet.
I reckon we'll probably have the perennial Graeme Currie as the Labour candidate here. Lib Dems have the best ground game here and I would favour them for second place.
Before the parliamentary shenanigans, I predicted that this seat would struggle to get past the 10% threshold for a recall petition and even if it went to a by-election, Paterson would romp home with a majority of votes. After this week, I think the combined force of the oppositions candidates plus the loss of the incumbent might just mean the Tories fail to break 50%. It will still be a comfortable hold.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 4, 2021 18:55:05 GMT
N Shropshire is very different than Ludlow or Montgomery though!! In terms of demographics or just Lib Dem track record? There are less retired people for a start. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 4, 2021 18:57:02 GMT
labour stood in Ludlow 2001 though? Looking at the result they probably didn’t campaign much though, if at all, or even may have encouraged people to vote LD. Their vote was roughly halved from 1997, down 12%. Probably not many results like that for Labour in 2001 elsewhere other than other LD targets/holds (Norfolk North comes to mind in a similar way) Anyone know if Paterson’s majorities have built up to what they are due to a substantial personal popular vote or that it should just be another dyed in the wool Tory seat? Labour did very well in 1997 but he substantially increased his majority in 2001, again probably weren’t many big swings to the tories either in that election… other than Tatton for obvious reasons… could this be another Tatton? I realise people may have forgotten about Chesham and Amersham! (Not from an LD gain point of view, but a ‘punishing the tories’ kind of view in some of their ‘taken for granted’ seats) Paterson won with 40% in 1997 |
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