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Post by heslingtonian on Nov 4, 2021 19:57:37 GMT
Circumstances matter a lot - if the Conservatives were in better shape nationally at the time, then Taylor-Smith would have won despite himself. Were they winning nationally then he would have won quite comfortably. But as things were otherwise, he lost. True, although it stood out as an appalling result even by the standards of that election. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 13,685
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Post by right on Nov 4, 2021 19:59:37 GMT
This is the perfect opportunity for Labour and the LDs to stand down for each other. Labour could be the main opposition party in Old Bexley and Sidcup and the LDs in North Shropshire for instance. I thought so too, but actually read his letter and he's standing down from politics |
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Post by hugh01 on Nov 4, 2021 20:10:47 GMT
Iβm terms of demographics or just Lib Dem track record? Demographics. Bishop's Castle, Clun, Ludlow, Church Stretton... nothing like them in N Shrops. N Shropshire is more akin to adjacent parts of Cheshire and Staffordshire. And the Oswestry area more like Wrexhamshire. This is very true. Made up of the old :- North Shropshire District Council - Wem, Whitchurch, Prees - very Cheshireish, Market Drayton more potteries Oswestry Borough Council - Oswestry, probably the most Welsh Town in England, a lot of the hinterland is in Wales. People more likely to have connections to Wrexham or Llangollen than Shrewsbury. Villages in England but with names like Llanymynech, Llanyblodwel, Pant, Llynclys |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 6,672
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Post by cogload on Nov 4, 2021 20:15:44 GMT
If the Lib Dems could win in this county in Ludlow (aka South Shropshire) in a General Election, albeit in happier times for them, surely they can mount a challenge here in a by-election. Also, Montgomery is a border constituency which also has a LD history And in further good news for the LDs, I believe Lembit Opik is available. F*** right off...π€£ |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 14,008
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2021 20:16:06 GMT
Circumstances matter a lot - if the Conservatives were in better shape nationally at the time, then Taylor-Smith would have won despite himself. Were they winning nationally then he would have won quite comfortably. But as things were otherwise, he lost. True, although it stood out as an appalling result even by the standards of that election. Yes, that's the point: the circumstances allowed for what would otherwise have been a weird underperformance that election junkies would note and forget about (similar to Rishi Sunak's first electoral outing at Richmond, Yorks!) to turn into a full-blown disaster and the embarrassing loss of the seat. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group" - Douglas Adams
Posts: 7,498
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 4, 2021 20:18:22 GMT
And in further good news for the LDs, I believe Lembit Opik is available. F*** right off...π€£ And when you've done that, you can f*ck even further off, and keep f*cking off until we tell you to stop. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 10,121
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2021 20:23:32 GMT
And when you've done that, you can f*ck even further off, and keep f*cking off until we tell you to stop. Has he not joined the Conservatives now? Maybe he could stand for them, after all he did win them a seat in 2010... |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 4, 2021 20:43:20 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Nov 4, 2021 20:44:55 GMT
And when you've done that, you can f*ck even further off, and keep f*cking off until we tell you to stop. Has he not joined the Conservatives now? Maybe he could stand for them, after all he did win them a seat in 2010... Mr Opik merely appeared at a Conservative Party event earlier this year. There is no evidence of him having joined the Conservatives. |
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Post by hugh01 on Nov 4, 2021 21:06:22 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Nov 4, 2021 21:27:12 GMT
If there was only one anti-Tory candidate they'd stand a good chance of winning. But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind.
An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win.So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? There are apparently talks in place between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens to back just such a candidate: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967 |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 4, 2021 21:39:50 GMT
If the Northern Independence Party canβt win this then you have to ask where can they win. A must win for the whippet team. Watch out for the Cushat faction |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 4, 2021 21:41:21 GMT
Nick Clegg
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Post by ππΎπΊππβπΆπΎππ on Nov 4, 2021 21:44:29 GMT
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Post by southpaw1 on Nov 4, 2021 21:46:35 GMT
True, although it stood out as an appalling result even by the standards of that election. Yes, that's the point: the circumstances allowed for what would otherwise have been a weird underperformance that election junkies would note and forget about (similar to Rishi Sunak's first electoral outing at Richmond, Yorks!) to turn into a full-blown disaster and the embarrassing loss of the seat. Yes, Phillip Dunne was a local candidate and won back the seat easily despite 2005 being a good election for the LD's. Interesting to note that former MP Christopher Gill stood as a UKIP candidate in 2010 and just fell short of holding his deposit |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 4, 2021 21:48:34 GMT
But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind.
An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win.So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? There are apparently talks in place between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens to back just such a candidate: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967Perhaps I'll get to put my leafletting shoes away after all . . .  |
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 4, 2021 21:48:56 GMT
So see Patterson has said he will remain a Public servant, Well wonder will that will be in unpaid charity work?
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European Lefty
Labour
Reminder: the "red wall" isn't real
Posts: 4,092 
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 4, 2021 21:54:12 GMT
But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind.
An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win.So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? There are apparently talks in place between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens to back just such a candidate: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967Aaaarrrgghhhh!!! The whole point of an independent is that they can win where party candidates can't. Having the parties stand down and support them defeats the point of the whole exercise |
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 4, 2021 21:56:12 GMT
Aaaarrrgghhhh!!! The whole point of an independent is that they can win where party candidates can't. Having the parties stand down and support them defeats the point of the whole exercise So another tory wins? |
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David
Scottish Conservative
The 'woke' Conservative.
Posts: 15,040
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Post by David on Nov 4, 2021 21:56:15 GMT
But there won't be so it's likely to be a Conservative hold. Labour cannot peel away enough Conservative voters to win. The Greens have pockets of some local government strength but we shouldn't underestimate their skill in cocking up by-election opportunities. The Lib Dems are probably best placed to draw in the breadth of support needed but recent times have not been kind.
An anti-sleaze independent, especially one with local connections, could win.So step forward . . . er . . . Ian Woosnam? There are apparently talks in place between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens to back just such a candidate:Β www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967Lib Dems probably won't do it. Why would they? |
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