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Post by andrewp on Nov 19, 2021 12:40:14 GMT
The one vote win gives the Conservatives overall control of West Devon DC too I think.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 19, 2021 12:43:02 GMT
The ward borders an area of Cornwall which has had some longstanding Labour strength - Calstock, Gunnislake etc. Calstock was won by Labour in May. I'm not sure what the source of Labour support in this area is - possibly railway connections - but this clearly isn't a flash in the pan
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Post by andykernow on Nov 19, 2021 12:51:14 GMT
Bere Ferrers is quite a mixed area and has experienced some influx of residents from Plymouth. The railway is the main transport route both to the city to the south, Bere Alston to the North and into East Cornwall. For information Calstock has a long, long history of Labour dominance and was retained in May quite comfortably. I think this result more mirrors the Labour win on the Rame peninsula in Cornwall and may reflect local distinctiveness than anything else.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 19, 2021 12:57:58 GMT
Bere Ferrers is quite a mixed area and has experienced some influx of residents from Plymouth. The railway is the main transport route both to the city to the south, Bere Alston to the North and into East Cornwall. For information Calstock has a long, long history of Labour dominance and was retained in May quite comfortably. I think this result more mirrors the Labour win on the Rame peninsula in Cornwall and may reflect local distinctiveness than anything else. I wondered if there is an element of the left of centre/ liberal public sector/ university influence of Plymouth spilling out here and into the Rame peninsula in a similar way to that of Exeter spilling out into Central Devon and into East Devon as reflected in the by elections there recently. I don’t perceive there to be as much of that demographic in Plymouth as there is in Exeter but those that are might be found here and in Tavistock and in South East Cornwall rather than in Plymouth itself. Although it is obviously slightly different as Labour has won Bere Ferrers before where as they haven’t in some of the other areas mentioned. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 19, 2021 13:13:15 GMT
The Labour candidate was young, local, had some voluntary sector roots and ran what seems to have been an active campaign with lots of social media stuff. And there's clearly a reasonable core vote to build on. Well done. Stick at it and she'll win next time.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 19, 2021 13:31:21 GMT
Bere Ferrers is quite a mixed area and has experienced some influx of residents from Plymouth. The railway is the main transport route both to the city to the south, Bere Alston to the North and into East Cornwall. For information Calstock has a long, long history of Labour dominance and was retained in May quite comfortably. I think this result more mirrors the Labour win on the Rame peninsula in Cornwall and may reflect local distinctiveness than anything else. I wondered if there is an element of the left of centre/ liberal public sector/ university influence of Plymouth spilling out here and into the Rame peninsula in a similar way to that of Exeter spilling out into Central Devon and into East Devon as reflected in the by elections there recently. I don’t perceive there to be as much of that demographic in Plymouth as there is in Exeter but those that are might be found here and in Tavistock and in South East Cornwall rather than in Plymouth itself. Although it is obviously slightly different as Labour has won Bere Ferrers before where as they haven’t in some of the other areas mentioned. I think that generally in Devon and Cornwall, non-Tory Leave voters have turned to Labour after being gaslighted by the Lib Dems over Brexit. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 19, 2021 13:50:32 GMT
Twitter will explode. 1) How can this happen in Geoffrey Cox’s constituency. 2) Progressive alliance. still just 35%. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2021 13:54:01 GMT
What a difference 1 vote makes:
Labour sensational win in Geoffrey Cox's seat increases pressure to intolerable levels.
Conservative win gives party control of local council
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 19, 2021 14:08:47 GMT
I wondered if there is an element of the left of centre/ liberal public sector/ university influence of Plymouth spilling out here and into the Rame peninsula in a similar way to that of Exeter spilling out into Central Devon and into East Devon as reflected in the by elections there recently. I don’t perceive there to be as much of that demographic in Plymouth as there is in Exeter but those that are might be found here and in Tavistock and in South East Cornwall rather than in Plymouth itself. Although it is obviously slightly different as Labour has won Bere Ferrers before where as they haven’t in some of the other areas mentioned. I think that generally in Devon and Cornwall, non-Tory Leave voters have turned to Labour after being gaslighted by the Lib Dems over Brexit. Surely they turned to Labour over tuition fees and the coalition? We were always pro-Europe and the West Country voters did not mind. But when we lost all credibility they deserted us there and most other places. Meanwhile the Labour Party changed considerably in the Remain direction as the issue became more salient, to occupy much the same space as us... The reality is that the more extreme Leave voters deserted both us and Labour in the West Country since 2016. In this by-election, there was no sign of a campaign online by us, and the return of the Greens after not standing last time had a big impact on the result, which I would think had almost nothing to do with Brexit.. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 19, 2021 14:38:30 GMT
I think that generally in Devon and Cornwall, non-Tory Leave voters have turned to Labour after being gaslighted by the Lib Dems over Brexit. Surely they turned to Labour over tuition fees and the coalition? We were always pro-Europe and the West Country voters did not mind. But when we lost all credibility they deserted us there and most other places. Meanwhile the Labour Party changed considerably in the Remain direction as the issue became more salient, to occupy much the same space as us... The reality is that the more extreme Leave voters deserted both us and Labour in the West Country since 2016. In this by-election, there was no sign of a campaign online by us, and the return of the Greens after not standing last time had a big impact on the result, which I would think had almost nothing to do with Brexit.. True, there was a big drop in our vote in 2015, like everywhere else, but in Remainier areas of the country we have recovered somewhat. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 19, 2021 15:00:21 GMT
Surely they turned to Labour over tuition fees and the coalition? We were always pro-Europe and the West Country voters did not mind. But when we lost all credibility they deserted us there and most other places. Meanwhile the Labour Party changed considerably in the Remain direction as the issue became more salient, to occupy much the same space as us... The reality is that the more extreme Leave voters deserted both us and Labour in the West Country since 2016. In this by-election, there was no sign of a campaign online by us, and the return of the Greens after not standing last time had a big impact on the result, which I would think had almost nothing to do with Brexit.. True, there was a big drop in our vote in 2015, like everywhere else, but in Remainier areas of the country we have recovered somewhat. Yes, thanks to an election based entirely on Brexit. (in England and Wales). Tactically those second places and the extra members are important. However I would not be surprised if we unwind a bit in those areas and recover a bit in the West Country, tbh |
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Nov 19, 2021 17:09:21 GMT
In relation to Labour and this part of the Tamar Valley - sandwiched between the former metal mining area and industrial parts of Plymouth, it is not surprising that there has been a strong Labour tradition (much more than East Devon, for instance, mentioned upthread).
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 19, 2021 17:57:29 GMT
I wondered if there is an element of the left of centre/ liberal public sector/ university influence of Plymouth spilling out here and into the Rame peninsula in a similar way to that of Exeter spilling out into Central Devon and into East Devon as reflected in the by elections there recently. I don’t perceive there to be as much of that demographic in Plymouth as there is in Exeter but those that are might be found here and in Tavistock and in South East Cornwall rather than in Plymouth itself. Although it is obviously slightly different as Labour has won Bere Ferrers before where as they haven’t in some of the other areas mentioned. I think that generally in Devon and Cornwall, non-Tory Leave voters have turned to Labour after being gaslighted by the Lib Dems over Brexit. This is what I'm hearing anecdotally as well. When I was back in Plymouth a few weeks ago it came up in conversation. I don't see a way back for the Lib Dems for a while in the SW. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 19:17:12 GMT
I think that generally in Devon and Cornwall, non-Tory Leave voters have turned to Labour after being gaslighted by the Lib Dems over Brexit. This is what I'm hearing anecdotally as well. When I was back in Plymouth a few weeks ago it came up in conversation. I don't see a way back for the Lib Dems for a while in the SW. Hmm. It's obvious that Brexit has harmed the Lib Dems in much of the SW, but I think that's mostly about conventional Lib Dem-Tory swings. Most/all of the Devon wards that Labour have recently done unexpectedly well in have seen strong Lib Dem results post-2016 and I'd wager most aren't in particularly pro-leave areas - Exe Valley recently, for one. From my (perhaps limited) knowledge of Bere Ferrers and West Devon, and based on the fact that West Devon was 46.7% for remain, I wouldn't expect Bere Ferrers to be more pro-leave than the country on average. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 19, 2021 19:31:43 GMT
This is what I'm hearing anecdotally as well. When I was back in Plymouth a few weeks ago it came up in conversation. I don't see a way back for the Lib Dems for a while in the SW. Hmm. It's obvious that Brexit has harmed the Lib Dems in much of the SW, but I think that's mostly about conventional Lib Dem-Tory swings. Most/all of the Devon wards that Labour have recently done unexpectedly well in have seen strong Lib Dem results post-2016 and I'd wager most aren't in particularly pro-leave areas - Exe Valley recently, for one. From my (perhaps limited) knowledge of Bere Ferrers and West Devon, and based on the fact that West Devon was 46.7% for remain, I wouldn't expect Bere Ferrers to be more pro-leave than the country on average. Given that more than 2/3 of the voters backed Parties that wanted to stop Brexit I would say it was almost certainly not an issue in this local by-election, any more than it is in all those recent Lib Dem successes in Sunderland. Local by-elections are fought overwhelmingly on local issues, but of course each Party starts with a campaign-absent vote which mirrors what an opinion poll would give in that ward. In Bere Ferrers I suspect that would be majority Tory |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 19, 2021 20:21:50 GMT
Given that more than 2/3 of the voters backed Parties that wanted to stop Brexit The Labour Party wanted to stop Brexit?! I remember a Labourite commenting on the wording of fundraising emails and upon hearing that the Conservatives had sent out an email with the subject "Jeremy Corbyn is trying to stop Brexit" he said he wished he could receive an email with that subject from Labour. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 19, 2021 23:35:25 GMT
Given that more than 2/3 of the voters backed Parties that wanted to stop Brexit The Labour Party wanted to stop Brexit?! I remember a Labourite commenting on the wording of fundraising emails and upon hearing that the Conservatives had sent out an email with the subject "Jeremy Corbyn is trying to stop Brexit" he said he wished he could receive an email with that subject from Labour. As I recall their manifesto included a commitment to another referendum. That was certainly interpreted by all Leavers as a democratic outrage designed to take their candy away by... Erm.. Voting |
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Nov 19, 2021 23:36:23 GMT
The Labour Party wanted to stop Brexit?! I remember a Labourite commenting on the wording of fundraising emails and upon hearing that the Conservatives had sent out an email with the subject "Jeremy Corbyn is trying to stop Brexit" he said he wished he could receive an email with that subject from Labour. As I recall their manifesto included a commitment to another referendum. That was certainly interpreted by all Leavers as a democratic outrage designed to take their candy away by... Erm.. Voting If at first you don't succeed, vote vote vote again. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 19, 2021 23:41:46 GMT
As I recall their manifesto included a commitment to another referendum. That was certainly interpreted by all Leavers as a democratic outrage designed to take their candy away by... Erm.. Voting If at first you don't succeed, vote vote vote again. If you happen to get the answer you want, stop asking (unless the question is who governs this country, in which case ask every two years) |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 19, 2021 23:52:39 GMT
As I recall their manifesto included a commitment to another referendum. That was certainly interpreted by all Leavers as a democratic outrage designed to take their candy away by... Erm.. Voting If at first you don't succeed, vote vote vote again. Well, that's what the Leavers did after losing in the 70's. |
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