Local Council by-elections 11th November 2021

[Tony Otim]

CARDIFF UA; Heath (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
HAF, Gwennol (Plaid Cymru)
HUDSON, Peter Michael (Conservative)
LOCK, Kathryn Ann (Liberal Democrat)
SANGANI, Julie Rajnikant (Labour)

2017: Lab 2010, 1704, 1667; Con 1830, 1602, 1477; Heath & Birchgrove Ind 1737, 1143, 930; PC 410; Grn 251; LD 244, 163, 119
2012: HBI 1500, 1151, 888; Lab 1416, 1240, 1116; Con 1277, 1242, 1101; LD 349, 175, 140; PC 325; Ind 262; Grn 253
2008: Con 2205, 2135 1819; LD 1877, 1642, 1545; Lab 896, 656, 575; PC468; Grn 435
2004: LD 2380, 2305, 1929; Con 1040, 1026, 992; Lab 920, 634, 612; Cardiff Citizens 502, 367, 288; PC 265, 248; Grn 244

Peter Hudson was the second placed Conservative in 2017. The Conservative who was elected was Lyn Hudson, (first elected in 2008 and presumably related)?

Current Council: Lab 38; Con 21; LD 11; Propel 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Llandrillo (PC resigned)
Candidates:
ELLIS, Gwyneth (Plaid Cymru)
ROBINSON, David (Independent)
SAMPSON, Julian (Conservative)

2017: PC unopp
2012: PC unopp
2008: PC 405; Ind 93; Con 19
2004: PC 391; Ind 158

David Robinson was the independent candidate in 2008.

Current Council: Con 15; Ind 11; Lab 11; PC 9; 1 vacancy



LANCASTER DC; University & Scotforth Rural (Eco-Socialist elected as Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ASHTON, Zanna (Liberal Democrat)
ASKARI, Sayeda Fabiha Hassan (Labour)
MAXWELL-SCOTT, Matthew Joseph (Conservative)
PAYNE, Jamie (Green)

2019: Lab 295, 278, 267; Grn 217, 175, 142; Con 119, 113, 112; LD 88, 83, 72
May 18by: Lab 518, 423; Grn 264, 235; Con 184, 184; LD 120, 114
Dec 16by: Lab 98; Grn 79; Con 68; LD 36
2015: Lab 605, 500, 480; Grn 555, 440, 417; Con 405, 391, 339; LD 143, 79, 66

Current Council: Lab 14; Con 11; Grn 10; Morecambe Bay Ind 9; Ind Grp 5; Eco-socialist Ind 4; LD 2; Independent Ind 1; 4 vacancies



MELTON DC; Melton Dorian (Opposition elected as Con disqualified)
Candidates:
COX, Sarah Anne (Labour)
WEBSTER, Timothy (Conservative)

2019: Con 477, 429, 385; Grn 438
2015: Con 1221, 1146, 1039; Lab 797, 646, 579; Ind 642
2011: Con 649, 540, 524; Lab 642, 563
2007: Con 581, 484, 439; Ind 352; Lab 313
Aug 04by: Con 397; Lab 140; Ind 125;
2003: Con 367, 302; Ind 297; Lab 268, 239, 237; Melton Borough Progressive Alliance 188

Current Council: Con 20; Opposition 5 (4 Ind & 1 Grn); Ind 2; 1 vacancy



THANET DC; Thanet Villages (Grn resigned)
Candidates:
DE ROSE, Jeremy Ian (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH, Abi (Green)
WILSON, Guy (Conservative)

2019: Con 638, 602, 460; Grn 599; LD 567, 416; UKIP 551; Lab 223
Jan 18by: Con 620; LD 313; Lab 206; Grn 66; Ind 52 (Con hold)
2015: Ind 1326, 335; Con 1273, 1083; UKIP 1197, 1033, 916; Grn 601; Lab 515
2011: Ind 1209, 523; Con 1011, 837, 720; Lab 516, 472
Jun 09by: Ind 937; Con 596; LD 316; Lab 133
2007: Ind 793; Con 670, 625, 434; Lab 368, 359
2003: Con 687, 574, 572; Ind 627, 424, 419; Lab 499, 380, 284

Guy Wilson was the unsuccessful Conservative in 2019. Abi Smith and Jeremy de Rose both stood for their parties in Birchington and Rural division (which contains this ward) in May, when the previous UKIP councillor this ward and unsuccessful candidate from 2019 was elected as a Conservative.

Current Council: Con 26; Lab 17; Thanet Ind 6; Grn 3; Ind 3; 1 vacancy

[evergreenadam]

Bizarre the Greens are not standing in Melton given they already have a Councillor in the ward.

[finsobruce]

Oct 18, 2021 19:06:26 GMT evergreenadam said:

Bizarre the Greens are not standing in Melton given they already have a Councillor in the ward.

Presumably they couldn't find someone willing to stand.

[andrew111]

In Cardiff Heath ward the Independent (Fenella Bowden I think) who has resigned was originally elected as a pre-coalition Lib Dem

[shadsy]

Some good ones here; going to be tricky deciding which one to pick as this week's betting market choice.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Oct 18, 2021 19:06:26 GMT evergreenadam said:

Bizarre the Greens are not standing in Melton given they already have a Councillor in the ward.

After Labour's by election win in nearby Oakham last week, will it be two from two in a seat they must have a reasonable chance in.

[shadsy]

Smarkets have gone with the campus election for Lancaster City Council this week.

smarkets.com/event/42459310/politics/uk/local-government/university-and-scotforth-rural-by-election

[owainsutton]

Oct 18, 2021 19:06:26 GMT evergreenadam said:

Bizarre the Greens are not standing in Melton given they already have a Councillor in the ward.

Ahhh. That one.


*bites lip*

[peterl]

Its a few years since I last bet on anything, but I'm confident enough that we will win Lancaster this week to put a few pounds on it.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 8, 2021 11:06:00 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have gone with the campus election for Lancaster City Council this week.

smarkets.com/event/42459310/politics/uk/local-government/university-and-scotforth-rural-by-election

There might be more bets than votes if it's like the last stand-alone by-election there.

[lackeroftalent]

Nov 8, 2021 16:39:12 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 8, 2021 11:06:00 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have gone with the campus election for Lancaster City Council this week.

smarkets.com/event/42459310/politics/uk/local-government/university-and-scotforth-rural-by-election

There might be more bets than votes if it's like the last by-election there.

Pedant alert - I assume you are referencing the Dec 2016 by-election with 281 total votes.

The last by-election there was May 2018 when a double header saw 1842 votes (921 or more voters).

Sorry, couldn't resist.

www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/16670/

[phil156]

They all count on the night too (Thursday)

[John Chanin]

Somewhat belated previews

www.britainelects.com/2021/11/11/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-11-nov-2021/

[andrewteale]

It turns out that there are two by-elections today in North Kesteven which we all missed - Metheringham ward and Sleaford Castle ward. I am trying to get details.

[andrewp]

Nov 11, 2021 19:44:29 GMT andrewteale said:

It turns out that there are two by-elections today in North Kesteven which we all missed - Metheringham ward and Sleaford Castle ward. I am trying to get details.

Metheringham is a double vacancy too.

[John Chanin]

I know North Kesteven is remote, but it’s not that remote. Remarkable that not 1 but 3 vacancies have totally escaped our experts here.

[andrewteale]

Metheringham: double by-election following resignations of Lincolnshire Independent councillors Nick Byatt and Laura Pearson.
May 2019: Lincs Ind 814/807 C 544/489
Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i6lh

Amelia Bailey (Lincs Ind)
Diana Catton (LD)
Paul Edwards-Shea (Lab)
Dave Parry (C)
Fran Pembery (C)
Calvin Rodgerson (Lab)
Mark Williams (Lincs Ind)

Sleaford Castle: resignation of Lincolnshire Independent councillor Cara Sandy.
May 2019: Lincs Ind 194 Lab 172 C 172
Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/igmh

Linda Edwards-Shea (Lab)
Ken Fernandes (Ind)
Susan Hislop (LD)
Steve Mason (Ind)
Malcolm Offer (C)

[John Chanin]

Nov 11, 2021 19:57:06 GMT andrewteale said:

Metheringham: double by-election following resignations of Lincolnshire Independent councillors Nick Byatt and Laura Pearson.
May 2019: Lincs Ind 814/807 C 544/489
Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i6lh

Sleaford Castle: resignation of Lincolnshire Independent councillor Cara Sandy.
May 2019: Lincs Ind 194 Lab 172 C 172
Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/igmh

Probably they all resigned together as a result of some schism among the Lincolnshire Independents.  Metheringham is fenland alongside the river Witham - deeply rural, with the delightfully named Blankney, perhaps explaining how we missed it.

[ricmk]

Makes you wonder if there are some we totally miss and never hear about until the next elections if at all.

If a bear stands in a by-election in the woods but no-one on Twitter or this forum notices, can he be duly elected?

[agbutler]

How did everyone miss these