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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 3, 2022 18:25:00 GMT
It is interesting that she says about talking to people on the far right because almost no one starts there. I know people who have started on the far left but none, so far as I know, who started on the far right. Not even Hitler or Mussolini. It's an interesting observation. I think there are people who start out ultra-conservative, but that's a different thing. |
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Feb 3, 2022 19:31:05 GMT
It is interesting that she says about talking to people on the far right because almost no one starts there. I know people who have started on the far left but none, so far as I know, who started on the far right. The far-right is incoherent. When you get into the weeds, you realise that's half the point. The issue, of course, is that the linear political spectrum is hard to apply once you get to the fringes. It's entirely plausible to think that if you keep moving left that you can go from a hippie with a rebellious streak to a deranged insurrectionary anarchists, but a little harder to figure out how someone primarily motivated by a desire to end racism and help the poor could wind up doing apologia for North Korea. Likewise, it's entirely reasonable to see the continuity between a conservative who wants to keep the ship going steadily, who perhaps has a fondness for history, tradition and the monarchy, to a cranky reactionary who wishes the 1911 Parliament had never passed and the riff raff left the decision-making up to their betters. It's harder to see why someone who values stability and social order, however, might find themselves calling for the economy to be radically reordered and society to be controlled by roving mobs of angry young men. In terms of my voter profile, however, it's all rather moot, since even the most tolerant liberal journalist trying to understand the rise and fall of right-wing populism would get nothing useful from me and, indeed, would be bored to tears by someone who may have at one time considered "immigration" his biggest issue and yet continued to vote almost exclusively for a party that literally possessed the most radically pro-immigration policy possible. They'd be even more annoyed to know that rather than being woo'd by Boris, mainstream conservatism or grouchily slinking off to the English Democrats or whatever other clown show would have me, I turned myself into the very caricature of a neoliberal "globalist" that the far-right are most obsessed with defeating. |
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Post by mrsir on Feb 3, 2022 19:48:27 GMT
Predictions for when we’ll get a result?
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 3, 2022 20:36:49 GMT
It is interesting that she says about talking to people on the far right because almost no one starts there. I know people who have started on the far left but none, so far as I know, who started on the far right. Not even Hitler. Sorry, but that's complete nonsense. Hitler of course had (and described in detail in his book) a journey from essentially apolitical conservative to committed far right conspiracy theorist, but he was about twenty years old at the time (and living in dire straits on the edge of homelessness). In a sense though, there's a wider point here: few people are raised in a far-right subculture - while lots of people are raised in a strongly conservative subculture, because these views are correlated with stable families with multiple children - so obviously even very young men on the far right will have had some kind of journey there. Of course in my own country and generation, a vote for the far right at ~21 was a fairly normal rite of passage for the future non-posh male CDU voter. (Many of these people are now presumably voting for the AfD.) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 3, 2022 21:15:25 GMT
Declaration time form guide
2010: 4:55 AM
2015: 3:10 AM
2017: 2:25 AM
2019: 2:08 AM
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Post by elinorhelyn on Feb 3, 2022 22:14:39 GMT
Declaration time form guide 2010: 4:55 AM 2015: 3:10 AM 2017: 2:25 AM 2019: 2:08 AM Remember lower turnout means it will be earlier than those times. You can't use higher turnout elections and/or elections where the result is more up in the air as a benchmark |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 3, 2022 22:21:27 GMT
Given how low turnout is likely to be the result will likely come before 1am.
Where will I find live coverage?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Feb 3, 2022 22:30:11 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 3, 2022 23:00:35 GMT
Loving how some candidates arrived at the count more than 30 minutes before the first ballot box! |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 3, 2022 23:10:23 GMT
Sorry, but that's complete nonsense. Hitler of course had (and described in detail in his book) a journey from essentially apolitical conservative to committed far right conspiracy theorist, but he was about twenty years old at the time (and living in dire straits on the edge of homelessness). In a sense though, there's a wider point here: few people are raised in a far-right subculture - while lots of people are raised in a strongly conservative subculture, because these views are correlated with stable families with multiple children - so obviously even very young men on the far right will have had some kind of journey there. Of course in my own country and generation, a vote for the far right at ~21 was a fairly normal rite of passage for the future non-posh male CDU voter. (Many of these people are now presumably voting for the AfD.) I stand corrected - Hitler very much "not my period." I think I was misremembering something I'd once read about his dubious activities around the time of the Bavarian Soviet. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 3, 2022 23:11:35 GMT
Sky have got Jon Craig at the count.
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Post by Alun Elder-Brown Esq on Feb 3, 2022 23:42:42 GMT
Official turnout for the Southend West by-election was 66,354 votes, totalling 24.03%.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 3, 2022 23:44:25 GMT
Official turnout for the Southend West by-election was 66,354 votes, totalling 24.03%. Meaning that just 16,788 votes were cast. 66,354 is the electorate of Southend West, not the number of votes cast in that by-election, as I have had to point out. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 3, 2022 23:45:01 GMT
Apparently the result could be announced in less than an hour from now.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 3, 2022 23:46:11 GMT
If the electorate was 66,354 and the turnout was 24.03% that means 15,942 - 15,948 votes were cast.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 3, 2022 23:47:51 GMT
The number of votes needed for any of the fringe candidates to save their deposit in this by-election will be just 840. Fancy that!
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2022 23:50:06 GMT
I make it 798, as that is 5%. In my head I admit, rather than a calculator.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 4, 2022 0:16:26 GMT
If the electorate was 66,354 and the turnout was 24.03% that means 15,942 - 15,948 votes were cast. 15,945 rounded to the nearest whole number. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 4, 2022 0:17:23 GMT
I make it 798, as that is 5%. In my head I admit, rather than a calculator. You are correct since returning officers round up to the nearest whole number when calculating whether a candidate who did not win has saved their deposit or not. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 4, 2022 0:21:27 GMT
If the electorate was 66,354 and the turnout was 24.03% that means 15,942 - 15,948 votes were cast. 15,945 rounded to the nearest whole number. Is 15,946 not a whole number? Damn, I didn't get taught that at my pre-1292 university college. |
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