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Post by greenhert on Jan 25, 2022 13:34:33 GMT
Olga Childs has unofficially withdrawn from this by election citing personal health concerns.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jan 25, 2022 13:49:03 GMT
Olga Childs has unofficially withdrawn from this by election citing personal health concerns. Nothing to do with her recent appearance on Galloway's RT show, then. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 25, 2022 14:23:57 GMT
Olga Childs has unofficially withdrawn from this by election citing personal health concerns. Nothing to do with her recent appearance on Galloway's RT show, then. That's enough to make anyone ill to be fair. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 25, 2022 15:27:54 GMT
A bad case of gallowayitis?
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Jan 25, 2022 17:39:30 GMT
What's the chance of a "wartime by-election" shock? Of course the chances of the Tory winning is high and there appear to be no reports of the vote consolidating behind another candidate, but is there any reporting at all?Against that there will be a low turnout, high dissatisfaction with the government and a UKIP that is far less to toxic than it was five years ago to temporarily homeless Labour and Lib Dem voters (at least those who aren't obsessive enough to notice what's happened to UKIP immediately before Farage's exit). None that I could see - also no odds on Ladbrokes site which is a shame as I'd take a long odds punt on a UKIP win with some of my North Shropshire winnings. Perhaps shadsy is offering odds with his new outfit? According to political betting Smarkets have one offering now:
"UPDATE Smarkets now have a market up on the Southend West Tory vote share. I am on below 50% at 5.3"
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 25, 2022 17:47:26 GMT
I've added a poll. Truth be told I think any option for 30%+ may be unreasonably optimistic...  |
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Post by shadsy on Jan 31, 2022 14:12:45 GMT
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phil156
Forum Regular
Posts: 538
Member is Online
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Post by phil156 on Feb 2, 2022 15:39:14 GMT
They of course count on Thursday evening
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Post by elinorhelyn on Feb 2, 2022 17:46:58 GMT
They of course count on Thursday evening I'm sure it wont take long |
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torten
Forum Regular
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Post by torten on Feb 2, 2022 18:33:42 GMT
I presume UKIP are a very strong contender for 2nd place, followed maybe by the English Democrats?
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,781
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Post by right on Feb 2, 2022 21:52:46 GMT
If the Tory doesn't win that would finish off Boris
But could a small enough Tory majority kill him off or somehow contribute to the current excitement? Or would a majority of 1 be sufficient?
Because no one's paying any attention to Southend so the only expectation is a huge Tory majority, and because the atmosphere is so febrile in Westminster - a shock here will have an outside effect
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Post by froome on Feb 3, 2022 7:48:43 GMT
I've added a poll. Truth be told I think any option for 30%+ may be unreasonably optimistic... I've just voted in the poll. Not taking it entirely seriously.  (but it does need a bit of a balance, and we are in febrile times...) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 3, 2022 12:38:40 GMT
If the Tory doesn't win that would finish off Boris But could a small enough Tory majority kill him off or somehow contribute to the current excitement? Or would a majority of 1 be sufficient? Because no one's paying any attention to Southend so the only expectation is a huge Tory majority, and because the atmosphere is so febrile in Westminster - a shock here will have an outside effect Well if the Tories lost this, all bets would indeed be off. But it isn't tempting fate *too* much to say that's not likely to happen. IMO the Batley and Spen 2016 benchmarks - roughly 25% turnout, with about 85% of that supporting the incumbent party against various fringe right odds and sods (though admittedly not UKIP in that instance) remain relevant to this one. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Feb 3, 2022 13:52:46 GMT
Is there any reason at all to think that the Tories could even come close to losing? I've not been following this one very closely, but I'd have thought the worst that was likely from their point of view was a very low turnout and a comfortable enough win but with significant defections to UKIP etc.
Have any of the other candidates put in a sustained campaign?
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 3, 2022 13:56:24 GMT
Have any of the other candidates put in a sustained campaign? This is the issue. And since I moved out a decade ago we have I think only one forum member who lives in the area newsouthender and we haven’t heard from them. |
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Post by mrsir on Feb 3, 2022 15:23:07 GMT
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,098
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Post by ilerda on Feb 3, 2022 17:31:55 GMT
A brilliant article though. One of the very few times I’ve read a piece by a journalist where it feels like they’ve actually listened to people, tried to see things from their point of view, and then come to some sort of conclusion.
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Post by kevinf on Feb 3, 2022 18:09:54 GMT
Indeed, it really was a good read. Loved the last paragraph, nice to see a ‘liberal’ journo accepting how they got UKIP so wrong.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2022 18:16:32 GMT
It is interesting that she says about talking to people on the far right because almost no one starts there. I know people who have started on the far left but none, so far as I know, who started on the far right.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 3, 2022 18:21:08 GMT
It is interesting that she says about talking to people on the far right because almost no one starts there. I know people who have started on the far left but none, so far as I know, who started on the far right. There's one or two nominally Green posters here who did, like Richard Cromwell |
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