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Post by greenhert on Jan 21, 2022 19:03:26 GMT
No more than 30%, and likely below 20%.
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Post by jakegb on Jan 21, 2022 19:14:39 GMT
I suggested previously that the "fringe left" might have missed a trick not standing here. Not the right seat for it - this is a fairly right wing seat; if Labour win in the distant future, they will need to run on a united Blair platform. As recent election results show, Essex doesn't do left-wing politics - and I see no reason why this will change. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 21, 2022 19:15:25 GMT
I would guess around 20% sounds about right.
Tories will obviously win, but who do people think will finish 2nd?
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jan 21, 2022 19:18:55 GMT
UKIP could well get second. Its at least a brand lots of people have heard of, unlike many of the contenders.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 21, 2022 19:22:12 GMT
Yes almost certainly UKIP. English Democrats would be the only other contenders
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 21, 2022 19:34:44 GMT
I suggested previously that the "fringe left" might have missed a trick not standing here. Not the right seat for it - this is a fairly right wing seat; if Labour win in the distant future, they will need to run on a united Blair platform. As recent election results show, Essex doesn't do left-wing politics - and I see no reason why this will change. I'm not sure that bish was actually suggesting that they might win, but they would get a lot of publicity. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 21, 2022 19:44:46 GMT
I would guess around 20% sounds about right. Tories will obviously win, but who do people think will finish 2nd? Spoiled ballots. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 21, 2022 22:12:13 GMT
I think a good bet to put money on is whether Boris will be PM or has lost a confidence vote by the time of this by-election
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 22:56:07 GMT
I think a good bet to put money on is whether Boris will be PM or has lost a confidence vote by the time of this by-election I imagine he will still be PM even if he loses the confidence of Tory MPs, until they find a successor |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 21, 2022 23:07:28 GMT
Has any journalist - local or national - asked the candidate what they think of BoJo?
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 22, 2022 8:30:41 GMT
Has any journalist - local or national - asked the candidate what they think of BoJo? Which candidate would that be? |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jan 22, 2022 10:38:32 GMT
I think a good bet to put money on is whether Boris will be PM or has lost a confidence vote by the time of this by-election I imagine he will still be PM even if he loses the confidence of Tory MPs, until they find a successor You don't think that he'd just quit almost immediately, and leave Raab to carry on until a new leader is chosen? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 22, 2022 11:26:22 GMT
Has any journalist - local or national - asked the candidate what they think of BoJo? Which candidate would that be? As much as I really want to know what the Heritage Party’s candidate thinks, I was referring to Anna Firth - it would be interesting if her line is “I have confidence in Boris” or if it’s “I’m focusing on Southend West” |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2022 11:26:26 GMT
I imagine he will still be PM even if he loses the confidence of Tory MPs, until they find a successor You don't think that he'd just quit almost immediately, and leave Raab to carry on until a new leader is chosen? He might, but Carrie would not be able to admire the gold wallpaper any more... |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 22, 2022 14:26:05 GMT
You don't think that he'd just quit almost immediately, and leave Raab to carry on until a new leader is chosen? He might, but Carrie would not be able to admire the gold wallpaper any more... I think more than even Boris himself the person who want him to stay on as PM the most is Carrie |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Jan 24, 2022 8:11:22 GMT
What's the chance of a "wartime by-election" shock?
Of course the chances of the Tory winning is high and there appear to be no reports of the vote consolidating behind another candidate, but is there any reporting at all?
Against that there will be a low turnout, high dissatisfaction with the government and a UKIP that is far less to toxic than it was five years ago to temporarily homeless Labour and Lib Dem voters (at least those who aren't obsessive enough to notice what's happened to UKIP immediately before Farage's exit).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 24, 2022 9:36:12 GMT
What's the chance of a "wartime by-election" shock? Of course the chances of the Tory winning is high and there appear to be no reports of the vote consolidating behind another candidate, but is there any reporting at all?Against that there will be a low turnout, high dissatisfaction with the government and a UKIP that is far less to toxic than it was five years ago to temporarily homeless Labour and Lib Dem voters (at least those who aren't obsessive enough to notice what's happened to UKIP immediately before Farage's exit). None that I could see - also no odds on Ladbrokes site which is a shame as I'd take a long odds punt on a UKIP win with some of my North Shropshire winnings. Perhaps shadsy is offering odds with his new outfit? |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Jan 24, 2022 13:01:08 GMT
What's the chance of a "wartime by-election" shock? Of course the chances of the Tory winning is high and there appear to be no reports of the vote consolidating behind another candidate, but is there any reporting at all?Against that there will be a low turnout, high dissatisfaction with the government and a UKIP that is far less to toxic than it was five years ago to temporarily homeless Labour and Lib Dem voters (at least those who aren't obsessive enough to notice what's happened to UKIP immediately before Farage's exit). None that I could see - also no odds on Ladbrokes site which is a shame as I'd take a long odds punt on a UKIP win with some of my North Shropshire winnings. Perhaps shadsy is offering odds with his new outfit? UKIP almost beat Labour to second place here in 2015 and of the other parties standing only the English Democrats seem to have even managed to stand a candidate. However UKIP not standing in 2019 indicates that the organisation may have collapsed since then. The UKIP candidate's views would put liberal England into an entertaining panic if he won. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 24, 2022 13:09:25 GMT
None that I could see - also no odds on Ladbrokes site which is a shame as I'd take a long odds punt on a UKIP win with some of my North Shropshire winnings. Perhaps shadsy is offering odds with his new outfit? UKIP almost beat Labour to second place here in 2015 and of the other parties standing only the English Democrats seem to have even managed to stand a candidate. However UKIP not standing in 2019 indicates that the organisation may have collapsed since then. The UKIP candidate's views would put liberal England into an entertaining panic if he won. Southend was one of the better organised branches when James Moyies was involved (he's back in the Conservative party now), but when the circumstances were right (as they were broadly from 2013-16) UKIP success depended relatively little on the quality of local organisation. If it had depended upon that, to be frank they wouldn't have won half the seats they did |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2022 11:28:50 GMT
Could we get a poll on here for turnout? Thanks
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