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Post by manchesterman on Jan 16, 2022 20:12:50 GMT
Some of those Psychedelic Movement policies are either frightening or hilarious or both! The most eye-opening one for me though was the plan to "sue the Chinese government for £20tr!" If by some miracle I could speak to their candidate my questions would be: 1) Which court do you intend to take them to? 2) who would be the judge & jury? 3) How would the arbitrary "penalty" youve prescribed be enforced? [will you be sending Southend bailiffs to Beijing to collect?] 4) If successful in this policy, what would you spend the £20tn on apart from rebuilding every front door in the country?  (Interesting that they intend to close down all religious structures to turn them into social housing. well at least that could solve the housing crisis!) |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 16, 2022 20:17:54 GMT
Absolutely - this seat had a lower winning share (for the Cons) than North Shropshire in 2019, and roughly in line with Chesham and Amersham. And look what happened to both of them... Hypothetically, would Labour have allowed the Lib Dems to blatantly pitch themselves as the main challenger to the Tories? Arguably not, I feel, especially with their lead in the polls. Though I also note that Nina Stimson (of the Lib Dems) was only 5% behind the Tories in 1997. The Lib Dems never achieved this sort of figure in North Shropshire (prior to 2021). This seat is safe at the moment; however, Anna Frith cannot rest on her laurels come subsequent election cycles; with clever targeting, this seat could come semi-marginal or possibly marginal (though the East seat will fall first). ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Thurrock says Hi ..and I dont think Harlow is out of play if the meltdown continues.. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 16, 2022 20:21:15 GMT
The tories would've lost this by-election if contested I doubt it given the circumstances. Amess / Patterson is rather a contrast. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 16, 2022 21:13:04 GMT
Absolutely - this seat had a lower winning share (for the Cons) than North Shropshire in 2019, and roughly in line with Chesham and Amersham. And look what happened to both of them... Hypothetically, would Labour have allowed the Lib Dems to blatantly pitch themselves as the main challenger to the Tories? Arguably not, I feel, especially with their lead in the polls. Though I also note that Nina Stimson (of the Lib Dems) was only 5% behind the Tories in 1997. The Lib Dems never achieved this sort of figure in North Shropshire (prior to 2021). This seat is safe at the moment; however, Anna Frith cannot rest on her laurels come subsequent election cycles; with clever targeting, this seat could come semi-marginal or possibly marginal (though the East seat will fall first). ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Do you know Colchester particularly well? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 16, 2022 21:51:41 GMT
Some of those Psychedelic Movement policies are either frightening or hilarious or both! The most eye-opening one for me though was the plan to "sue the Chinese government for £20tr!" If by some miracle I could speak to their candidate He has an email address that can be found at: whocanivotefor.co.uk/person/7633/jason-pilley |
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Post by jakegb on Jan 16, 2022 22:06:24 GMT
ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Thurrock says Hi ..and I dont think Harlow is out of play if the meltdown continues.. Harlow has been trending against Labour for some time; Robert Halfon has a considerable personal vote and his majority now stands at 14,000. Unless there is a 1997 wipeout, Harlow will be in the blue column for the foreseeable. Both Southend seats (esp East) are likely to be more vulnerable to opposition attacks, despite not electing Labour MPs in 1997. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 16, 2022 22:22:14 GMT
Thurrock says Hi ..and I dont think Harlow is out of play if the meltdown continues.. Harlow has been trending against Labour for some time; Robert Halfon has a considerable personal vote and his majority now stands at 14,000. Unless there is a 1997 wipeout, Harlow will be in the blue column for the foreseeable. Both Southend seats (esp East) are likely to be more vulnerable to opposition attacks, despite not electing Labour MPs in 1997. The new towns do have a reputation for remarkable swings, though. Both Stan Newens and Bill Rammell looked safe and had a similar personal popularity. Certainly the trend is away from Labour, though. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 16, 2022 23:01:33 GMT
ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Thurrock says Hi ..and I dont think Harlow is out of play if the meltdown continues.. Thurrock, yes. Harlow, no. Not just because of the size of the respective majorities but because of demographics |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 17, 2022 8:02:59 GMT
Absolutely - this seat had a lower winning share (for the Cons) than North Shropshire in 2019, and roughly in line with Chesham and Amersham. And look what happened to both of them... Hypothetically, would Labour have allowed the Lib Dems to blatantly pitch themselves as the main challenger to the Tories? Arguably not, I feel, especially with their lead in the polls. Though I also note that Nina Stimson (of the Lib Dems) was only 5% behind the Tories in 1997. The Lib Dems never achieved this sort of figure in North Shropshire (prior to 2021). This seat is safe at the moment; however, Anna Frith cannot rest on her laurels come subsequent election cycles; with clever targeting, this seat could come semi-marginal or possibly marginal (though the East seat will fall first). ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Basildon is certainly still highly marginal. However it is split in half between two seats, which could only fall in a landslide, and the BCE predictably is recommending only minor changes. Southend East, though unlikely, is a better bet than Harlow now. However the rather curious BCE proposals would level up the two Southend seats as safe(but not exceptionally so) Conservative. This by the way I think is one of the more likely proposals to be amended following consultation. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2022 8:28:54 GMT
Turnout will be interesting here
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 17, 2022 9:03:58 GMT
ATM, Colchester in the only viable Labour target in Essex Basildon is certainly still highly marginal. However it is split in half between two seats, which could only fall in a landslide, and the BCE predictably is recommending only minor changes. Southend East, though unlikely, is a better bet than Harlow now. However the rather curious BCE proposals would level up the two Southend seats as safe(but not exceptionally so) Conservative. This by the way I think is one of the more likely proposals to be amended following consultation. FWIW (probably not very much) if you enter one of the recent polls with a 10 point Labour lead into Electoral Calculus and set it to use the initial proposals for the boundary review, the revised Southend West comes up as a Labour gain. Colchester does too, and rather more comfortably. |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 20, 2022 18:51:38 GMT
Hearing reports that the Tories are repeatedly emailing members in nearby associations asking for electoral help.
It may be just to find out who can be got out for future mutual aid, but could they also be worried about an underwhelming result?
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 20, 2022 19:38:45 GMT
Hearing reports that the Tories are repeatedly emailing members in nearby associations asking for electoral help. It may be just to find out who can be got out for future mutual aid, but could they also be worried about an underwhelming result? A quote from a report in The Times (i know...) says they are meeting a wall of hostility not encountered in twenty five years of the source's experience. The question is then, are people just going to abstain, vote for one of the right wing alternatives or send the Psychedelic Jason to parliament... a bit worrying when you think about it.  |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 20, 2022 22:03:29 GMT
I predict
Con 8,000
UKIP 900
ED 600
Eng Const 450
Fr All 250
Fransen 200
Heritage 70
(-) 50
Psy M 30
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Post by greenhert on Jan 20, 2022 22:11:51 GMT
I predict Con 8,000 UKIP 900 ED 600 Eng Const 450 Fr All 250 Fransen 200 Heritage 70 (-) 50 Psy M 30 That gives a total turnout of 10,550, which amusingly enough will likely not be far off the actual turnout come 3rd February. This by-election may well break Manchester Central's record for lowest turnout in a UK parliamentary by-election in peacetime. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jan 20, 2022 22:53:27 GMT
Hearing reports that the Tories are repeatedly emailing members in nearby associations asking for electoral help. It may be just to find out who can be got out for future mutual aid, but could they also be worried about an underwhelming result? A quote from a report in The Times (i know...) says they are meeting a wall of hostility not encountered in twenty five years of the source's experience. The question is then, are people just going to abstain, vote for one of the right wing alternatives or send the Psychedelic Jason to parliament... a bit worrying when you think about it. My thinking in making my prediction is that (a) a few hundred or whatever people will vote for each of the various minor candidates, and that is a fairly fixed number regardless of other factors; and (b) the number of Conservative votes is a highly flexible and variable number depending on circumstances. “A week is a long time in politics” and this/next week are going to be longer than most. The current pressure on Boris Johnson’s position could go either way - it might fizzle out quickly and dissipate, or it could remain as an intense and furious pressure. The latter would result in massive wholesale abstentions by potential Conservative supporters. If the electors are still angry in 2 weeks’ time, the Conservative vote might collapse to 6,000, or if the whole issue goes away it might hold up to 15,000. The difference is that those thousands of people will either stay at home or vote Conservative; they won’t switch to the minor candidates. |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 21, 2022 6:54:35 GMT
A quote from a report in The Times (i know...) says they are meeting a wall of hostility not encountered in twenty five years of the source's experience. The question is then, are people just going to abstain, vote for one of the right wing alternatives or send the Psychedelic Jason to parliament... a bit worrying when you think about it. My thinking in making my prediction is that (a) a few hundred or whatever people will vote for each of the various minor candidates, and that is a fairly fixed number regardless of other factors; and (b) the number of Conservative votes is a highly flexible and variable number depending on circumstances. “A week is a long time in politics” and this/next week are going to be longer than most. The current pressure on Boris Johnson’s position could go either way - it might fizzle out quickly and dissipate, or it could remain as an intense and furious pressure. The latter would result in massive wholesale abstentions by potential Conservative supporters. If the electors are still angry in 2 weeks’ time, the Conservative vote might collapse to 6,000, or if the whole issue goes away it might hold up to 15,000. The difference is that those thousands of people will either stay at home or vote Conservative; they won’t switch to the minor candidates. There's no suggestion that another party has any momentum, but then reporters aren't covering this by-election. If some momentum did gather then a "lend us your vote" appeal could create a freaky result. UKIP to obsessives is a different creature to the dustbin for protest votes it was in 2014, but few voters have been following its travails since Brexit. There are no opposition parties standing, Tory voters are grumpy and this already looks like a wartime by-election as it is. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 21, 2022 11:45:21 GMT
I suggested previously that the "fringe left" might have missed a trick not standing here.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 21, 2022 18:51:54 GMT
I suggested previously that the "fringe left" might have missed a trick not standing here. Yes, Sir Keir dropped a clanger there. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 21, 2022 18:55:39 GMT
What are predicting for turnout sub 30%, sub 20%?
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