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Post by Alun Elder-Brown Esq on Dec 29, 2021 21:16:14 GMT
I'm wondering when this by-election will be called. Any ideas?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 29, 2021 21:21:52 GMT
Could be moved in the recess for an early February poll.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 5, 2022 14:36:57 GMT
Writ moved in the Commons.
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Post by samdwebber on Jan 5, 2022 14:44:55 GMT
Indeed!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2022 14:45:10 GMT
Polling day therefore 10 February, I think.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 5, 2022 15:48:03 GMT
BBC Essex are reported 3 February:
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Post by johnloony on Jan 5, 2022 20:26:27 GMT
The nearest comparable by-election was of course Batley & Spen in 2016, in which the incumbent party got 85% of the votes.
I predict that this time it will be far less than that - perhaps about 70%. There are likely to be more substantial votes for the various right-wing / populist / alt-right / radical weirdo parties, and there might be a substantial vote for a generic non-party vaguely centre-left de-facto combined-opposition candidate.
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Post by samdwebber on Jan 5, 2022 22:02:25 GMT
The media gets very excited these days over any stories to do with 'Chevening', the grace and favour mansion shared currently by Dominic Raab and Liz Truss. The Tory candidate for Southend West, Anna Firth, is still a sitting councillor for 'Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge' on Sevenoaks DC. cds.sevenoaks.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=128 |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2022 22:35:35 GMT
I predict that in a similar way to the Batley & Spen by-election of 2016, the non-Conservative candidates will all be either far-right extremists or timewasters.
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Post by Alun Elder-Brown Esq on Jan 6, 2022 1:38:12 GMT
The UKIP candidate is Steve Laws,a journalist and activist, from Kent, the same as Anna Firth the Tory candidate
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 6, 2022 7:51:27 GMT
Wonder what took the Tories so long to move the writ, even after they had selected the candidate. Could it be after NS and their poll collapse they would struggle even in a uncontested election and wanted to push it forward for as long as possible.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jan 6, 2022 8:10:16 GMT
Wonder what took the Tories so long to move the writ, even after they had selected the candidate. Could it be after NS and their poll collapse they would struggle even in a uncontested election and wanted to push it forward for as long as possible. I don't think there was any significant political reason for the perceived delay in the by-election. It should be remembered that although Sir David died on 15 October, his funeral took place on 22 November. It was only right and proper that respect be shown by delaying the by-election during the mourning period. When that concluded a Christmas by-election would hardly be welcomed by most sensible people. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 6, 2022 9:00:25 GMT
There were 82 days between Amess dying and the writ being moved, which included a lengthy period of public holiday. This was the longest gap between vacancy occurring and writ moving since Jo Cox (91 days), but nothing like a record.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 6, 2022 11:35:02 GMT
Wonder what took the Tories so long to move the writ, even after they had selected the candidate. Could it be after NS and their poll collapse they would struggle even in a uncontested election and wanted to push it forward for as long as possible. LOL no the Tories won't "struggle" to win this. Though the turnout might be an interesting indicator there. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,098
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Post by ilerda on Jan 6, 2022 11:45:01 GMT
There were 82 days between Amess dying and the writ being moved, which included a lengthy period of public holiday. This was the longest gap between vacancy occurring and writ moving since Jo Cox (91 days), but nothing like a record. Interesting that it's a shorter period than after Jo Cox. That of course also had to wait for after the EU referendum and the summer recess. |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,617 
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Jan 6, 2022 12:14:45 GMT
Wonder what took the Tories so long to move the writ, even after they had selected the candidate. Could it be after NS and their poll collapse they would struggle even in a uncontested election and wanted to push it forward for as long as possible. LOL no the Tories won't "struggle" to win this. Though the turnout might be an interesting indicator there. Batley and Spen 2016 was 25.8% |
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Post by froome on Jan 6, 2022 12:45:21 GMT
I suspect we will see Piers Corbyn on the ballot paper.
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 6, 2022 13:02:56 GMT
I suspect we will see Piers Corbyn on the ballot paper. That's what they want you to think. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2022 13:11:03 GMT
Wonder what took the Tories so long to move the writ, even after they had selected the candidate. Could it be after NS and their poll collapse they would struggle even in a uncontested election and wanted to push it forward for as long as possible. LOL no the Tories won't "struggle" to win this. Though the turnout might be an interesting indicator there. But will it be an indicator of anything much? A February by-election in bad weather and short-light days with restricted candidature? |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jan 6, 2022 14:03:17 GMT
LOL no the Tories won't "struggle" to win this. Though the turnout might be an interesting indicator there. But will it be an indicator of anything much? A February by-election in bad weather and short-light days with restricted candidature? Whilst the weather may be bad, I don't see a problem re- the light. Already sunset is later than it has been for almost 7 weeks - ie back to circa 20th November - and by February 3rd it will be later than any day since end of October when we moved from BST to GMT. |
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