iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 9, 2021 18:09:14 GMT
A fairly astonishing decline for the ČSSD
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 18:09:35 GMT
Turns out, that within their alliance the Pirates will have won only ~4 of ~37 MPs, while STAN will have got via PreferenceVotes +33! STAN with their popular leader being nearly equal to ODS (+34). Together the liberal-conservative bloc alone will end around 104/200: 34 ODS 33 Stan 23 KDU-CSL 14 Top'09 I saw. It's totally disastrous for the Pirates. They got 22 last time. To think there were polls not too long ago putting the Pirates alone on a higher share than they got combined. The preference system has really shafted them, though I understand the STAN leader had a very good campaign.
And over 20% of votes were wasted because so many parties were under the threshold. It's yet another warning to those who want proportional because it's 'fair'.
A coalition between SPOLU (ODS+KDU-CSL+Top09) and STAN seems totally viable.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 18:13:50 GMT
A fairly astonishing decline for the ČSSD Their coalition with ANO has hit them hard.
Though it's happened in multiple countries in Eastern Europe. Traditional social democratic ground is limited, and more populist/ nationalist/ 'right-wing' parties have taken the economic left vote in country after country. Socially liberal parties tend to be further to the centre or centre-right and they have taken a lot of the youth/ urban vote.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 9, 2021 19:33:54 GMT
Final results here: www.volby.cz/pls/ps2021/ps2?xjazyk=CZSocial Democrats and Communists wiped out with 4.65% and 3.6% respectively-worse than I predicted. SPOLU tops the poll with 27.79%, ANO finishes a close second with 27.13%, the Pirates finish third with 15.61%, and Svoboda becomes the smallest party in the new Czech Parliament with 9.56%. PRISAHA narrowly misses out with 4.68%. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 20:04:24 GMT
Final results here: www.volby.cz/pls/ps2021/ps2?xjazyk=CZSocial Democrats and Communists wiped out with 4.65% and 3.6% respectively-worse than I predicted. SPOLU tops the poll with 27.79%, ANO finishes a close second with 27.13%, the Pirates finish third with 15.61%, and Svoboda becomes the smallest party in the new Czech Parliament with 9.56%. PRISAHA narrowly misses out with 4.68%. I'm not sure. Polling in the last few weeks wasn't great for either and before that it was quite mixed. I'm not sure about the future of CSSD - do they need time in the wilderness to recover or will they just disappear as so many traditional left parties have? As I said above, Eastern Europe isn't currently fertile ground for traditional social democratic parties.
99.99% of the vote is now in so it's not quite final.
On the parties, two are alliances. SPOLU on 27.79% have 71 seats. That splits 36 to ODS, 19 to KDU-CSL, and 15 to TOP 09.
ANO on 27.13% has 72 seats.
The Pirates + STAN on 15.61% have 37 seats. That splits to STAN (Mayors and Independents) on 32 and the Pirates on 4*.
The SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) on 9.56% have 20 seats.
EDIT: Final results are now in. SPOLU stay on 27.79%, ANO got 27.12%, Pirates/STAN got 15.62% and SPD stayed on 9.56%. The seat totals stay the same. All other parties were below the threshold so get no seats.
*I still can't get over how disastrous that alliance has been for the Pirates and how well STAN have done.
A ODS, KDU-CSL, TOP 09 and STAN majority coalition government should be more than possible as none of the parties are totally opposed or different to the others.
The president has already said he wants the largest party to form the next government as he supports Babis. ANO are largest, but have no chance of forming a majority government as SPOLU and Pirates/STAN are totally opposed to them.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2021 20:12:55 GMT
The more votes come in, the more the Communists fall below 5%... The Observer correspondent thinks they are gone. Time for the good Scotch. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 20:23:05 GMT
The more votes come in, the more the Communists fall below 5%... The Observer correspondent thinks they are gone. Time for the good Scotch. Yeah, their result was really disastrous. But they have a more solid basis than CSSD and when Babis will soonly be gone... |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 22:28:01 GMT
Seats per region of - alliances:  - parties:  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 22:32:43 GMT
  Ano:  CSSD:  KCSM:  Spolu (ODS+KDU-CSL+TOP'09):  Pirati+Stan:  Prisaha (=Oath; antiCorruption "centrists"):  SPD:  "Trikolora" (euroscept. Lib. [Klaus])  FreeBloc (nat.cons.):  Zeleni (=Greens).  |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 10, 2021 4:47:26 GMT
The Observer correspondent thinks they are gone. Time for the good Scotch. Yeah, their result was really disastrous. But they have a more solid basis than CSSD and when Babis will soonly be gone... I vaguely remember they used to do well in the north... |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 10, 2021 5:00:14 GMT
Turns out, that within their alliance the Pirates will have won only ~4 of ~37 MPs, while STAN will have got via PreferenceVotes +33! STAN with their popular leader being nearly equal to ODS (+34). Together the liberal-conservative bloc alone will end around 104/200: 34 ODS 33 Stan 23 KDU-CSL 14 Top'09 It's not as unfair as it sounds: Yes, the cities had a high TurnOut, but their alliance has performed badly there, but very well in rural&remote areas - so most of their voters came likely from STAN. Why did the Pirates implode? |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 10, 2021 5:00:35 GMT
STAN seems to be a generic moderately centre right rural party. Why are they aligned with the Pirates?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 10, 2021 9:21:24 GMT
Communists and Socialists to merge?
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 10, 2021 9:41:03 GMT
It's not as unfair as it sounds: Yes, the cities had a high TurnOut, but their alliance has performed badly there, but very well in rural&remote areas - so most of their voters came likely from STAN. Why did the Pirates implode? Preference voting quirk at least in part. You voted for one - in this case: joint - list and could then optionally cast up to four preference votes for candidates on that list only. Seats went to people with the most preferences, subject to a low quorum. This rewards gross positive name rec, basically. If STAN's localist voters all used the preference system to the fullest and Pirates' urban voters did not except where the lead candidate was very prominent... Wd be interesting to know the full party breakdown of preferences (and what share of preferences was actually used). Wd also be interesting to know if sthg similar happened before - if this outcome was predictable. I don't know the answers though. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 10, 2021 9:44:31 GMT
Why did the Pirates implode? Preference voting quirk at least in part. You voted for one - in this case: joint - list and could then optionally cast up to four preference votes for candidates on that list only. Seats went to people with the most preferences, subject to a low quorum. This rewards gross positive name rec, basically. If STAN's localist voters all used the preference system to the fullest and Pirates' urban voters did not except where the lead candidate was very prominent... Wd be interesting to know the full party breakdown of preferences (and what share of preferences was actually used). Wd also be interesting to know if sthg similar happened before - if this outcome was predictable. I don't know the answers though. Not a great advert for preference voting, or indeed pre election party blocs |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2021 9:49:58 GMT
Communists and Socialists to merge? The Socialists would be making a big mistake if they did that. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2021 9:53:07 GMT
Here's a question to ponder. The write-up in the Observer featured a chap who described this outcome as signalling the end of the post-communist era. It is a simple soundbite but could he be right?
Presumably he's referring to "post-communist" politics as a cycle where you have a reformed ruling party alternating with mainstream centre-right types (alongside a cast of thousands of weird and wonderful parties) , but with this order then giving way to the emergence of a large populist outfit. A pattern you could argue we've seen across Eastern Europe beyond the usual suspects.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 10, 2021 9:56:25 GMT
Preference voting quirk at least in part. You voted for one - in this case: joint - list and could then optionally cast up to four preference votes for candidates on that list only. Seats went to people with the most preferences, subject to a low quorum. This rewards gross positive name rec, basically. If STAN's localist voters all used the preference system to the fullest and Pirates' urban voters did not except where the lead candidate was very prominent... Wd be interesting to know the full party breakdown of preferences (and what share of preferences was actually used). Wd also be interesting to know if sthg similar happened before - if this outcome was predictable. I don't know the answers though. Not a great advert for preference voting, or indeed pre election party blocs yeah, you really need an internal pr mechanism to divide seats betweem bloc member parties and the Czech version lacks that. Though things can get awry with regional constituencies anyways. Favorite example from the march 90 Volkskammer election: the joint Greens/UFV list winning 8 seats, either 0 or 1 per constituency... with every no.1 spot a Green and every no.2 spot a UFV member. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Oct 10, 2021 10:05:00 GMT
Turns out, that within their alliance the Pirates will have won only ~4 of ~37 MPs, while STAN will have got via PreferenceVotes +33! STAN with their popular leader being nearly equal to ODS (+34). Together the liberal-conservative bloc alone will end around 104/200: 34 ODS 33 Stan 23 KDU-CSL 14 Top'09 I saw. It's totally disastrous for the Pirates. They got 22 last time. To think there were polls not too long ago putting the Pirates alone on a higher share than they got combined. The preference system has really shafted them, though I understand the STAN leader had a very good campaign.
And over 20% of votes were wasted because so many parties were under the threshold. It's yet another warning to those who want proportional because it's 'fair'.
A coalition between SPOLU (ODS+KDU-CSL+Top09) and STAN seems totally viable.
No it’s not - it’s a warning to those who think that it’s a good idea to have artificially large thresholds in PR list systems. As far as I am concerned, the only threshold in Pr list systems should be the limit which is inherent in the district magnitude. (As it happens, I would prefer the district magnitude to be fairly small anyway) |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 10, 2021 10:36:52 GMT
I saw. It's totally disastrous for the Pirates. They got 22 last time. To think there were polls not too long ago putting the Pirates alone on a higher share than they got combined. The preference system has really shafted them, though I understand the STAN leader had a very good campaign.
And over 20% of votes were wasted because so many parties were under the threshold. It's yet another warning to those who want proportional because it's 'fair'.
A coalition between SPOLU (ODS+KDU-CSL+Top09) and STAN seems totally viable.
No it’s not - it’s a warning to those who think that it’s a good idea to have artificially large thresholds in PR list systems. As far as I am concerned, the only threshold in Pr list systems should be the limit which is inherent in the district magnitude. (As it happens, I would prefer the district magnitude to be fairly small anyway) Oh God, could you imagine if there was no threshold!? That would be an even worse situation with everyone and their mother having a seat or two and the chance of any government, never mind a stable one, being around zero. |
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