johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 15:08:25 GMT
Over 90% (Prague 60%) now in and the pattern is continuing.
ANO - 28.1%
SPOLU - 26.6%
Pirates - 15.0%
SPD (Nationalists) - 10.0%
Everyone else below 5%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 15:22:25 GMT
Ano & Spolu are presently (93%) only separated by 1.1% - what is not without importance, because Zeman had declared (being sure, that it would be Babis) to hand GoverningForming over to the strongest party.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 15:25:04 GMT
Ano & Spolu are presently (93%) only separated by 1.1% - what is not without importance, because Zeman had declared (being sure, that it would be Babis) to hand GoverningForming over to the strongest party. An impossibility as SPOLU and Pirates will hold a narrow, but clear majority of seats. It currently looks like it will be around 110 of the 200. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 15:30:50 GMT
Ano & Spolu are presently (93%) only separated by 1.1% - what is not without importance, because Zeman had declared (being sure, that it would be Babis) to hand GoverningForming over to the strongest party. An impossibility as SPOLU and Pirates will hold a narrow, but clear majority of seats. It currently looks like it will be around 110 of the 200. Nevertheless he declared so and will surely try it. In order to override him, the 5 liberal parties would have to vote Zeman's cabinets immediately down and form a government on their own and present it to him and the public. A crisis, which could last until his term will expire (next spring). |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 15:38:06 GMT
An impossibility as SPOLU and Pirates will hold a narrow, but clear majority of seats. It currently looks like it will be around 110 of the 200. Nevertheless he declared so and will surely try it. In order to override him, the 5 liberal parties would have to vote Zeman's cabinets immediately down and form a government on their own and present it to him and the public. A crisis, which could last until his term will expire (next spring).
That margin is getting tighter and tighter. A margin of a fraction of a percent and a clear minority in parliament is hardly a mandate to govern.
With almost 96% (Prague 75%) in, it's:
ANO - 27.7%
SPOLU - 27.1%
Pirates - 15.2%
SPD (Nationalists) - 9.8%
Everyone else below 5%.
I know Zeman has the power to call a new election in certain circumstances, but do you know exactly what they are?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 15:48:18 GMT
Nevertheless he declared so and will surely try it. In order to override him, the 5 liberal parties would have to vote Zeman's cabinets immediately down and form a government on their own and present it to him and the public. A crisis, which could last until his term will expire (next spring).
That margin is getting tighter and tighter. A margin of a fraction of a percent and a clear minority in parliament is hardly a mandate to govern.
With almost 96% (Prague 75%) in, it's:
ANO - 27.7%
SPOLU - 27.1%
Pirates - 15.2%
SPD (Nationalists) - 9.8%
Everyone else below 5%.
I know Zeman has the power to call a new election in certain circumstances, but do you know exactly what they are?
Sorry, Zeman's term will terminate in early 2023. And also sorry for not remembering the presidency's exact possibilities. If i remember correctly, he is not allowed to call EarlyElections in the last 6 months of his term, what could under CircumStances make the chaos perfect. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 15:59:47 GMT
It seems chaos might reign indeed. ANO simply won't have the numbers to rule.
Looking at the numbers, it's not even absolutely clear ANO will be ahead now.
With almost 98% (Prague 86%) in, there are just 6000 votes between the top two parties. It's currently:
ANO - 27.5%
SPOLU - 27.4%
Pirates - 15.3%
SPD (Nationalists) - 9.7%
Everyone else below 5%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:02:25 GMT
It seems chaos might reign indeed. ANO simply won't have the numbers to rule. Looking at the numbers, it's not even absolutely clear ANO will be ahead now. With almost 98% (Prague 86%) in, there are just 6000 votes between the top two parties. It's currently: ANO - 27.5% SPOLU - 27.4% Pirates - 15.3% SPD (Nationalists) - 9.7% Everyone else below 5%. Yes, 97.71%: 0.09% - that is very much doable! |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:03:59 GMT
Would be funny, if Zeman was a victim of his own declaration...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:05:02 GMT
97.97%: 0.03%
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:07:49 GMT
And Spolu has taken the lead.
Not sure about the diaspora-votes.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:10:08 GMT
Not sure about the diaspora-votes. I think, every citizens living abroad has a fictive home in Czechya and thus their PVs are sent to those precincts and counted there together with the normal votes. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:12:19 GMT
Not sure about the diaspora-votes. I think, every citizens living abroad has a fictive home in Czechya and thus their PVs are sent to those precincts and counted there together with the normal votes. No, they get counted separately. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:14:28 GMT
Presently Ano is ahead by 1 in the SeatCount - another possibility for an emerging chaos.
Yet, the SeatDistribution will probably change.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 16:16:05 GMT
Czechs abroad can vote at consulates abroad. However, their votes are randomly assigned to different areas and not where they last lived. Edit - Only 12000 votes so they'd have basically no effect at all on the result. SPOLU are indeed now ahead. With just under 99% of the vote in (91% in Prague), it's: SPOLU - 27.6% ANO - 27.3% Pirates - 15.5% SPD (Nationalists) - 9.6% Everyone else below 5%.
The numbers only seem to be heading in one direction too.
I think around 110 seats for SPOLU and the Pirates looks accurate. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 16:29:25 GMT
Czechs abroad can vote at consulates abroad. However, their votes are randomly assigned to different areas and not where they last lived. Indeed, they are clearly counted separately, but the EC doesn't list them separately. On the other hand for secrecy they cannot distribute them to the precincts, where people lived last time. So they must put them into 1 single precinct in Prague. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 17:29:17 GMT
Zeman, the Czech president, said he'd ask the largest party to form a government. ANO is still going to be the largest as SPOLU is a coalition of parties... Still, the chance of ANO forming a government is zero as the anti-Babis parties will have a clear majority in parliament.
With 99.9% in, it's:
SPOLU - 27.8%
ANO - 27.2%
Pirates - 15.6%
SPD (Nationalists) - 9.6%
Everyone else below 5%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 17:32:04 GMT
Turns out, that within their alliance the Pirates will have won only ~4 of ~37 MPs, while STAN will have got via PreferenceVotes +33!
STAN with their popular leader being nearly equal to ODS (+34).
Together the liberal-conservative bloc alone will end around 104/200:
34 ODS
33 Stan
23 KDU-CSL
14 Top'09
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 17:35:37 GMT
Zeman, the Czech president, said he'd ask the largest party to form a government. ANO is still going to be the largest as SPOLU is a coalition of parties... Ah, right: An austrian NewsPaper had even stressed this, but i have totally forgotten it. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 17:38:37 GMT
Turns out, that within their alliance the Pirates will have won only ~4 of ~37 MPs, while STAN will have got via PreferenceVotes +33! STAN with their popular leader being nearly equal to ODS (+34). Together the liberal-conservative bloc alone will end around 104/200: 34 ODS 33 Stan 23 KDU-CSL 14 Top'09 It's not as unfair as it sounds: Yes, the cities had a high TurnOut, but their alliance has performed badly there, but very well in rural&remote areas - so most of their voters came likely from STAN. |
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