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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2021 11:37:55 GMT
Didn't spot a thread for this. It's this weekend.
Anyone familiar with the scene in Bohemia and Moravia?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2021 18:48:37 GMT
Anyone familiar with the scene in Bohemia and Moravia? Here are graphs of the OpinionPolls:   At the beginning Babis had presented himself as a "liberal" reformer appealing to the rightliberal wealthy&healthy urbanites, who were turned off by ODS & TOP'09. And while he still does to some extent (TaxCuts), he has been aware, that he could not hold these people permanently (and has always been seen critically by the more leftliberal elements in that crowd). Thus he turned more and more into a NationalSocialist attracting the elderly on the land (biggest increases in cons. SouthMoravia), what let ODS & TOP'09 recover, but became a problem for his CoalitionPartners - Socialists and especially Communists. Both are oscillating around 5%. (Yet, they may survive due to the newest revelation, that Babis bought a castle in France. On the other hand Babis has suffered so many scandals and has survived them without much damage.) The OutCome will probably be, that Babis will be weakened, but could survive (also with the help of pres. Zeman), if Communists come in and there will be a "Nat.Bolsh."-majority (ANO+SPD+KSCM[+CSSD]). If not, both opposition blocs - rightliberal ODS&Top'09 and leftliberal Pirates (which runs perversely together with STAN, the party of rural & rather cons. mayors) - have ruled out to elect/support Babis. But even if those (mostly) urban Liberals achieved a majority, the Pirates are so instable, that a permanent coalition would be quite impossible. At least - as Babis threatened his followers, that he would retire instead of sitting in parliament, - the proWesterners might work together (perhaps with the Socialists?) for a short period. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2021 19:02:34 GMT
A party, which could make it into parliament (and be perhaps even decisive), is "Prisaha" (="Oath"), founded by a former PublicProsecutor as an antiCorruption-party.
"Trikolora", the party of the Klaus-dynasty, is in alliance with rightliberal ("libertarian") "Svobodni" (="TheFree") and another euroSceptical party. Any alliance of 3 parties needs 11% (2 require 8%), so they seem out of play.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2021 19:05:06 GMT
Don't forget, that Czechya uses this time a more proportional system of allocating seats. So ANO would even with a stable % lose seats.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:19:39 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:20:03 GMT
Apparently no ExitPolls this time.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:20:25 GMT
High TurnOut - bad sign for Babis!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:36:11 GMT
Spolu ahead - but with 0.12% counted...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:46:33 GMT
Without the ExitPolls we have to rely on the LiveCount and when the "asiatic bloc" (=Ano+SPD+KSCM) would have presently only a narrow %/seat-majority, it will very likely not durate as soon as Prague will finally come in.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 12:53:37 GMT
3% counted:  |
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 13:00:16 GMT
Apparently no ExitPolls this time. It's a little strange to have no exit poll or even an election day poll, but it looks that way. The Charles University has an 'experimental poll', but I would take it with a rather hefty pinch of salt as it looks pretty out there with ANO third.
Just 4% counted so far so we can't really tell if turnout is up everywhere. Lightly populated areas obviously count more quickly than cities like Prague and turnout looks up a couple of points so far on the 60.8% it was last time.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 13:21:52 GMT
The more votes come in, the more the Communists fall below 5%...
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 13:40:11 GMT
Just over a third in now.
ANO - 30%
SPOLU - 24%
Pirates - 13.5%
SPD (Nationalists) - 11%
CSSD (Social Dems) - 5%
Everyone else below 5%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 14:08:47 GMT
Now (64% done) CSSD has fallen below 5%, too!
Westerners - ODS&Top'09 & Pirates&Stan - are neck-to-neck with the Easterners (Ano&SPD), but will be ahead, as soon as Prague will come in.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 14:10:27 GMT
60% nationally in now (though with just 14% of Prague in) and ANO continues to fall back slightly.
Turnout looks similar to early returns up around 3 to 4 points on last time.
ANO - 29.4%
SPOLU - 24.9%
Pirates - 14.1%
SPD (Nationalists) - 10.5%
Everyone else below 5%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 14:14:10 GMT
The Socialists are minimally above 5% in CentralBohemia, where only 50% is counted; but more towards 4% in Prague, where only 14% is done. Will probably be not enough for them.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 14:19:05 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 14:24:25 GMT
With CSSD at 4% in Prague (and "Oath" even worse) only 4 parties/coalitions seem to enter parliament. And the Liberals (Spolu & Pirates&Stan) will get a majority. But as written yesterDay a longerlasting coalition with the Pirates will be difficult/impossible. Added by the problem of president Zeman.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 14:34:15 GMT
Over 75% (Prague 30%) now in and that pattern is continuing.
ANO - 28.8%
SPOLU - 25.7%
Pirates - 14.5%
SPD (Nationalists) - 10.3%
Everyone else below 5%.
I think it's clear a SPOLU and Pirate coalition is going to be quite some struggle too.
The Socialists are minimally above 5% in CentralBohemia, where only 50% is counted; but more towards 4% in Prague, where only 14% is done. Will probably be not enough for them. It will be the first time since the revolution the Social Dems and Communists will be extra-parliamentary in the lower house if they don't make it.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2021 14:55:23 GMT
Very poor call by AFP
Babis will win barely above a quarter of the vote and the Czech Republic uses a proportional system. The anti-Babis, non-nationalist opposition parties will win over half the seats in the legislature. Is that their definition of winning!?
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