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Post by carlton43 on Nov 12, 2021 22:06:38 GMT
the first part is a reasonable extension of the metaphor, it is the second part I take issue with. There is no greater consequence to losing a blue wall seat, over and above the loss of that one seat. It doesn't mean another seat is more likely to be lost (it may be lost for the same or similar reasons the first one is, but not because the first one has been). no, but yr path to a majority has just gotten one seat thornier. Obviously this makes a lot more sense in the US EC context where states' weights vary. (And where PA, MI and WI, the original Blue Wall, were in the same general direction even if not contiguous, as well as having vaguely similarish profiles and sharing a 'titanium tilt D' (pre16) political lean.) But then no one has ever claimed the term's importation to the UK was a great idea. Could we have this in English rather than gibberish please? Old Bexley?? |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Nov 13, 2021 18:35:51 GMT
Areas Labour should be targeting in the constituency is St. Mary and St. James, Sidcup, Longlands and Falconwood and Welling wards.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 13, 2021 19:30:20 GMT
Areas Labour should be targeting in the constituency is St. Mary and St. James, Sidcup, Longlands and Falconwood and Welling wards. Listing more than half the wards that make up the constituency isn’t really “targeting”. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Nov 13, 2021 20:13:38 GMT
Areas Labour should be targeting in the constituency is St. Mary and St. James, Sidcup, Longlands and Falconwood and Welling wards. Listing more than half the wards that make up the constituency isn’t really “targeting”. Then I guess I'm naming the wards they could do well in. By that I don't mean they'll win the seat |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2021 14:42:16 GMT
There is an area of high deprivation in the northeast of the seat in Slade Green & Northland ward. It is the only area of the seat with Labour councillors and will provide the majority of the Labour vote.
The key to Labour doing well is to target that area heavily and turn out as many of those voters as possible
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 14, 2021 15:47:24 GMT
There is an area of high deprivation in the northeast of the seat in Slade Green & Northland ward. It is the only area of the seat with Labour councillors and will provide the majority of the Labour vote. The key to Labour doing well is to target that area heavily and turn out as many of those voters as possible Not exactly a winning strategy! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2021 15:59:21 GMT
There is an area of high deprivation in the northeast of the seat in Slade Green & Northland ward. It is the only area of the seat with Labour councillors and will provide the majority of the Labour vote. The key to Labour doing well is to target that area heavily and turn out as many of those voters as possible Not exactly a winning strategy! Well maybe not but we don't need to win and we aren't going to. We just need to get a decent result. And in a by-election with a 40% turnout the biggest impact on out result will be how turnout amongst Labour voters compares to turnout generally |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 14, 2021 16:09:04 GMT
Not exactly a winning strategy! Well maybe not but we don't need to win and we aren't going to. We just need to get a decent result. And in a by-election with a 40% turnout the biggest impact on out result will be how turnout amongst Labour voters compares to turnout generally You came within 7% in 1997. That was due to a lot of Tory switchers. And you won Batley and Spen by canvassing the middle class areas as Galloway gobbled up your normal core vote. In a London by-election you should have the resources to canvas everywhere and work on the voters disillusioned with the Tories to come out for you. And mobilise the core vote as well. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 14, 2021 17:28:26 GMT
There is an area of high deprivation in the northeast of the seat in Slade Green & Northland ward. It is the only area of the seat with Labour councillors and will provide the majority of the Labour vote. The key to Labour doing well is to target that area heavily and turn out as many of those voters as possible Not exactly a winning strategy! Especially as it isn't in this constituency! |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 14, 2021 17:30:02 GMT
There is an area of high deprivation in the northeast of the seat in Slade Green & Northland ward. It is the only area of the seat with Labour councillors and will provide the majority of the Labour vote. The key to Labour doing well is to target that area heavily and turn out as many of those voters as possible I would be delighted if Labour spent their entire campaign effort in Slade Green & Northend ward, given it's in Bexleyheath & Crayford constituency, not Old Bexley & Sidcup! |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 14, 2021 17:30:54 GMT
Not exactly a winning strategy! Especially as it isn't in this constituency! Damnit you beat me by 30 seconds! |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 14, 2021 17:40:23 GMT
Not exactly a winning strategy! Especially as it isn't in this constituency! Nitpicker! |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 14, 2021 22:00:29 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 15, 2021 11:31:26 GMT
Areas Labour should be targeting in the constituency is St. Mary and St. James, Sidcup, Longlands and Falconwood and Welling wards. You might want to look at the 2018 local election results, and indeed at the 2011 census figures. Some of those you've listed are amongst Labour's least promising areas in the seat. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,820
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Post by iang on Nov 15, 2021 12:12:28 GMT
My parents got canvassed by Reform at the weekend. Highlights apparently included the Reform guy telling my Mum that voting Lib Dem was a wasted vote (pot? Kettle?), and asking her to lend Reform her vote to "send Boris a message about sleaze" - to which she replied "no". First canvasser they've had tbf
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Nov 15, 2021 13:53:24 GMT
Johnson here today.
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Post by samdwebber on Nov 15, 2021 15:07:01 GMT
Again.... after his last visit on Friday or Saturday? Interesting.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 15, 2021 15:13:12 GMT
Again.... after his last visit on Friday or Saturday? Interesting. A sign of concern? Or of confidence? Or of having a bit on the side in the area? |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Nov 15, 2021 15:43:59 GMT
Yes, I'd expected more St Albans results. Of course (misplaced, and anyway ridiculous in the context of what a government could actually do) fear of a Corbyn Labour win must have led quite a few Remain Tories to hold their nose and stick with a Johnson Tory party. One of the (fairly limited so far) positives of a Starmer Labour is that that anxiety will be less (although the actual outcomes of a change of government wouldn't be wildly different!). I think there is a deep misunderstanding among a lot of Lib Dem activists that if the other two parties move to more extreme positions then it leaves a huge opportunity for the Lib Dems in the middle ground. What they fail to recognise is that a left-wing Labour Party is a recruiting tool for the Tories and vice versa (it's slightly more nuanced in reality, but broadly the case). I was an Agent in the 2019 GE and I'd rate the national party's campaign as E- on a scale of A to D.
I think many Lib Dems genuinely don't get what (and where) the middle ground actually is.
And that's a fairly fundamental problem.
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 15, 2021 15:52:23 GMT
Again.... after his last visit on Friday or Saturday? Interesting. A sign of concern? Or of confidence? Or of having a bit on the side in the area? Are you looking out for the Sun headline "Boris Beds Buxom Bird in Bexley"?? |
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