Local Council by-elections 28th October 2021

[Tony Otim]

A bumper crop of 8 this week, including one that will definitely be changing hands and 4 that are 3-way Con-Lab-Grn fights.

BOLTON MBC; Bromley Cross (Con died)
Candidates:
ARMSTRONG, Laura (Bolton for Change)
COWAN, Amy (Conservative)
HASLAM, James Peter (LIberal Democrat)
MORT, Emily (Labour)
SPENCER, Liz (Green)

2021: Con 2748; Lab 1261; Grn 282; LD 164
2019: Con 2566; Lab 658; UKIP 342; Grn 296; LD 241
2018: Con 2928, 2257; Lab 1023, 910; Grn 374; LD 303, 196
2016: Con 2443; Lab 1022; UKIP 460; LD 196; Grn 183
2015: Con 4340; Lab 1589; UKIP 1057; Grn 424; LD 368
2014: Con 2312; Lab 957; UKIP 878; LD 169
2012: Con 2207; Lab 1215; LD 317
2011: Con 2821; Lab 1244; Grn 336; LD 327
2010: Con 4236; Lab 1774; LD 1456; Grn 303
2008: Con 2933; Lab 705; LD 331; Grn 147; You Party 141
2007: Con 2784; Lab 677; LD 362; Grn 350
2006: Con 2725; Lab 712; LD 462; Grn 292
2004: Con 3315, 3286, 3257; Lab 1043, 997, 890; LD 938, 782, 614

The deceased councillor, David Greenhalgh, was first elected in 2006 and came top in the double vacancy in 2018, meaning this seat will be up again next May.

The Green candidate, Liz Spencer has stood here in every election since 2015 and also 2006-2008. Emily Mort was the Labour candidate here in May.

Current Council: Con 20; Lab 18; Farnworth & Kearsley First 5; LD 5; Ind 4; Horwich & Blackrod First Ind 3; Bolton Ind Grp 2; One Kearsley 1; UKIP 1; 1 vacancy



CARLISLE DC; Currock & Upperby (UKIP died)
Candidates:
ADAMS, Tom (Green)
MITCHELL, Geoff (Conservative)
WILLS, Christopher Alan (Labour)

2019: Lab 798, 667, 555; UKIP 556; Con 326, 293, 283; Grn 251; LD 237

Geoff Mitchell has previously stood for Currock division of Cumbria County Council.

Current Council: Con 19; Lab 13; Ind Grp 2; Ind 2; LD 1; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



LUTON UA; South (Lab died)
Candidates:
AZIZ, Abid (Conservative)
BEGUM, Fatima (Labour)
KEANEY, Markus (Communist Party of Britain)
MARSHALL, Nigel John (Liberal Democrat)
SCHEIMANN, Marc (Independent)

2019: Lab 938, 813, 710; Grn 445; Con 373, 316; UKIP 339; Ind 259
2015: Lab 1898, 1787, 1655; Con 1075, 1061, 773; Grn 649
2011: Lab 994, 957, 930; Con 653, 528, 518; UKIP 196; Grn 161, 150, 108; LD 149, 142, 114
May 10by: Lab 1493; Con 1015; LD 616; UKIP 201; Grn 155
2007: Lab 840, 734, 657; Con 619, 610, 447; Grn 266; LD 249, 221, 162
2003: Lab 681, 681, 678; Con 354, 289, 250; LD 261, 234, 221; Ind 242, 120

Marc Scheimann was the Green candidate here in 2019 and also stood for them in 2011, 2010 and 2007.

Current Council: Lab 31; LD 13; Con 3; 1 vacancy



SOUTH KESTEVEN DC; Grantham Arnoldfield (Con resigned)
Candidates:
FAWCETT, Stuart (Labour)
RICE-OXLEY, Kaffy (Conservative)
TURNER, Mike (Green)

2019: Con 655, 612; Lab 232, 225
2015: Con 1203, 886; UKIP 516, 483; Lab 382, 349; Ind 335

In May, Stuart Fawcett (Lab) stood in Grantham East and Mike Turner (Grn) in Grantham Barrowby. This ward overlaps with neither division.



SOUTH KESTEVEN DC; Stamford All Saints (Con died)
Candidates:
CLEAVER, Richard James (Independent)
SAWYER, Maxwell Graham (Independent)
SCHONHUT, Amanda Jayne (Conservative)
STORY, Tony (Independent)

2019: Con 562, 533; Lab 343
2015: Con 1100, 826; Stamford Ind 646, 609; UKIP 603; Lab 529

Maxwell Sawyer was the top Stamford Independent candidate in 2015. Richard Cleaver gained the Stamford West division (which contains half this ward) from the Conservatives in May.

Current Council: Con 36; Ind 10; Lab 3; LD 2; Unaligned 1; Ind unaligned 2; 2 vacancies



SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE DC; Kinver (Con died)
Candidates:
McGOURTY, Bernadette Marie (Green)
SISLEY, Geoff (Conservative)
VAUGHAN, Michael Thomas Martin (Labour)

2019: Con 1022, 1004, 889; Grn 665; LD 598
2015: Con 2903, 2760, 2521; Lab 1055
2011: Con 1659, 1655, 1122; Ind 1071; Lab 644
2007: Con 1305, 977, 976; Ind 1096; LD 1002
2003: Con 972, 765, 600; Ind 947; LD 941, 743

Bernadette McGourty stood here for the Greens in 2019 and also stood in Kinver division in May. Michael Vaughan stood in Wombourne SE (see below) for Labour in 2019.



SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE DC; Wombourne South East (Con died)
Candidates:
BEAUMONT, Denis (Labour)
EVANS, Mark Edmund (Conservative)
McILVENNA, Claire (Green)

2019: Con 677, 585; Lab 250, 172
2015: 2 x Con unopp
2011: Con 873, 860; UKIP 501
2007: Con 784, 636; UKIP 432
2003: Con 556, 545; LD 494; Ind 458

Denis Beaumont was the top Labour candidate here in 2019 and stood for Labour in Wombourne division in May, when Claire McIvenna also stood for the Greens (having contested Wombourne South West in 2019)

Current Council: Con 34; Ind 8; Grn 3; Lab 1; UKIP 1; 2 vacancies



WREXHAM UA; Gresford East & West (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BLACKMORE, Beryl (Liberal Democrats)
BUTTERWORTH, Alan (Green)
CANTER, Aled (Labour)
DODMAN, Charles William Henry (Reform UK)
KENT, Jeremy Richard (Conservative)
WATERS, Aimi (Plaid Cymru)

2017: Con 917; Lab 204; LD 125; UKIP 11
2012: Lab 314; LD 311; Con 248
2008: LD 386; Con 347; Lab 286
2004: Lab 401; Con 343; LD 181

Beryl Blackmore was the LD councillor for the ward 2008-2012 and unsuccessful LD candidate in the subsequent 2 elections.

Current Council: Ind 18; Lab 11; Wrexham Ind 8; Con 7; PC 5; Non-aligned 2; 1 vacancy

[Tony Otim]

If anybody has better luck navigating the Bolton council website than me, please let me know - I can't even find a notice of election there to confirm the by-election is happening, although it is confirmed in various local news articles...

[andrewp]

Oct 4, 2021 9:43:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

If anybody has better luck navigating the Bolton council website than me, please let me know - I can't even find a notice of election there to confirm the by-election is happening, although it is confirmed in various local news articles...

No, but Amy Cowan is the Conservative candidate 

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19597483.bromley-cross-election-held-following-death-cllr-david-greenhalgh/

[Chris from Brum]

Oct 4, 2021 9:43:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

If anybody has better luck navigating the Bolton council website than me, please let me know - I can't even find a notice of election there to confirm the by-election is happening, although it is confirmed in various local news articles...

Paging andrewteale

[evergreenadam]

Surprisingly low number of Lib Dem candidates this week.

[andrewteale]

Oct 4, 2021 9:49:58 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Oct 4, 2021 9:43:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

If anybody has better luck navigating the Bolton council website than me, please let me know - I can't even find a notice of election there to confirm the by-election is happening, although it is confirmed in various local news articles...

Paging andrewteale

I'm going to have to go into town and photograph the council noticeboard again, aren't I?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 4, 2021 10:33:59 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 4, 2021 9:49:58 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Paging andrewteale

I'm going to have to go into town and photograph the council noticeboard again, aren't I?

Now published, in amongst all the notices for May 6th this year...

[michaelarden]

Oct 4, 2021 10:29:16 GMT evergreenadam said:

Surprisingly low number of Lib Dem candidates this week.

ALDC were claiming there had been 4 by-elections in Cumbria this year and the Lib Dems had won them all - that run is about to end on the 28th.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 4, 2021 12:08:39 GMT michaelarden said:

Oct 4, 2021 10:29:16 GMT evergreenadam said:

Surprisingly low number of Lib Dem candidates this week.

ALDC were claiming there had been 4 by-elections in Cumbria this year and the Lib Dems had won them all - that run is about to end on the 28th.

It's a false claim anyway - off the top of my head there was a by-election in Ulverston West to Cumbria CC on May 6th which was a Green gain from Con. There were also 4 or 5 by-elections to South Lakeland the same day. They may mean 4 since May, which may well be the case...

EDIT: in fact there were 18 by-elections in Cumbria on May 6th of which the Lib Dems won 3...

[iain]

Oct 4, 2021 12:19:12 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 4, 2021 12:08:39 GMT michaelarden said:

ALDC were claiming there had been 4 by-elections in Cumbria this year and the Lib Dems had won them all - that run is about to end on the 28th.

It's a false claim anyway - off the top of my head there was a by-election in Ulverston West to Cumbria CC on May 6th which was a Green gain from Con. There were also 4 or 5 by-elections to South Lakeland the same day. They may mean 4 since May, which may well be the case...

EDIT: in fact there were 18 by-elections in Cumbria on May 6th of which the Lib Dems won 3...

The ALDC claim was 4 by-elections post-May 6th.

[johng]

Oct 4, 2021 9:40:53 GMT Tony Otim said:

WREXHAM UA; Gresford East & West (Con resigned)

What a ridiculous name for a ward which covers the whole of Gresford. Yes, the community area contains more, but that ward has a completely different name and doesn't cover any part of Gresford.

[cogload]

Kaffy Rice-Oxley; any relation to Tim of Keane* fame? Unusual surname to say the least.

* I rather like Atlantic by them. Pretty dark stuff.

[Khunanup]

Oct 22, 2021 17:51:15 GMT cogload said:

Kaffy Rice-Oxley; any relation to Tim of Keane* fame? Unusual surname to say the least.

* I rather like Atlantic by them. Pretty dark stuff.

It's a long way from Battle...

[phil156]

I thought and I dont wish to distress but who is right Tony Otim you or Localcouncils.co.uk that carries David Boothroyds site
That site has
Soth Kesteven DC
Con 36, Ind 10 Lab 3, LD 2 Unaligned Group 2 Non-Aligned 1
Soth Staffordshire DC
Con 35, Ind 7, Green 3 Lab 1 UKIP 1
Thought I bring this to your attention Tony hope you dont mind or if you can tell David

[shadsy]

Smarkets have gone with Currock & Upperby as this week's by-election market.

smarkets.com/event/42438740/politics/uk/local-government/currock-upperby-by-election

Opening prices would imply win probabilities of approx:
60% Lab
30% Cons
10% Green

[minionofmidas]

Oct 25, 2021 12:22:01 GMT phil156 said:

I thought and I dont wish to distress but who is right Tony Otim you or Localcouncils.co.uk that carries David Boothroyds site
That site has
Soth Kesteven DC
Con 36, Ind 10 Lab 3, LD 2 Unaligned Group 2 Non-Aligned 1
Soth Staffordshire DC
Con 35, Ind 7, Green 3 Lab 1 UKIP 1
Thought I bring this to your attention Tony hope you dont mind or if you can tell David

at least one of the two S Kesteven Unaligned was suspended from the Conservative Party last week, after Tony's post. (For using the n-word in a council meeting... then again he used the kind of racist but mostly just dated in the woodpile phrase, he didn't call a Black man a nigger, so I suppose he'll be let back in after a grace period?)
I presume the other discrepancies have similar reasons.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 25, 2021 12:22:01 GMT phil156 said:

I thought and I dont wish to distress but who is right Tony Otim you or Localcouncils.co.uk that carries David Boothroyds site
That site has
Soth Kesteven DC
Con 36, Ind 10 Lab 3, LD 2 Unaligned Group 2 Non-Aligned 1
Soth Staffordshire DC
Con 35, Ind 7, Green 3 Lab 1 UKIP 1
Thought I bring this to your attention Tony hope you dont mind or if you can tell David

All figures were hopefully accurate at time of publication.

South Kesteven has changed since and I have updated the original post.

The South Staffs website still matches my original figures, unless I'm miscounting:

services.sstaffs.gov.uk/cmis/Councillors/tabid/63/ScreenMode/Party/Default.aspx

Dave Lockley (Cheslyn Hay South) has moved from Con to Ind since the 2019 elections but not sure when...

[phil156]

Tony thankyou for your reply
Dave Lockley moved on the 6th September to Ind according to South Staffs website and confirmed in the cabinet minutes of the 14th

So I inform David Boothroyd on that one

Thankyou for everything you do on here it's very informative

[andrewteale]

Oct 22, 2021 17:51:15 GMT cogload said:

Kaffy Rice-Oxley; any relation to Tim of Keane* fame? Unusual surname to say the least.

* I rather like Atlantic by them. Pretty dark stuff.

Apparently they are cousins.

[Toylyyev]

figurative cobblestones flying in Stamford, and from Red Lion Square at that