Local Council by-elections 21st October 2021

[Tony Otim]

BIRMINGHAM MBC; Yardley East (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
AKHTAR, Pervez (Conservative)
CORRIGAN, Carmel (Labour)
HARRIES, Deborah (Liberal Democrat)

2018: LD 1856; Lab 863; Con 140

Current Council: Lab 65; Con 27; LD 7; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



HORSHAM DC; Forest (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CAMPBELL, Jon (Green)
DYE, Ross (Conservative)
HIDE, David Vaughan (Labour)
OLSON, Jon (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 1305, 1224, 1120; Lab 742, 719, 613; Con 703, 623, 567; Peace 314; UKIP 243

David Hide (Lab) was the second placed Labour candidate in 2019 and also stood in Horsham Riverside division (which contains part of this ward) in May. Ross Dye was the Conservative candidate for Horsham East division (which contains the rest of this ward) in May. Jon Campbell stood for the Greens in Pulborough division, which has no overlap with this ward.

Current Council: Con 31; LD 12; Grn 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Rainworth South & Blidworth (Lab died)
Candidates:
JACKSON, Sheila Mary (Conservative)
THOMPSON, Tina (Independent)
WALSH, Callum (Labour)

2019: Lab 450, 401; Ind 345, 334; Con 341, 292
2015: Lab 1401, 1361; Con 792, 732; Ind 304

Tina Thompson stood in (and almost won) Blidworth division on Notts County Council in May


Current Council: Con 29; Lab 6; LD 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[Roger Harmer]

Carmel Corrigan was the unsuccessful Labour candidate for Longbridge and West Heath in the 2018 Birmingham City Council elections. This 2 member ward was split one Tory and one Labour with Carmel Corrigan coming 4th.

[middleenglander]

There are 3 candidates for the Newark & Sherwood: Rainworth South & Blidworth byelection -

Sheila Jackson (Conservative)
Tina(?) Thompson (Independent)
Calum Walsh (Labour)

[finsobruce]

Sept 28, 2021 14:51:14 GMT middleenglander said:

There are 3 candidates for the Newark & Sherwood: Rainworth South & Blidworth byelection -

Sheila Jackson (Conservative)
? Thompson (Independent)
Calum Walsh (Labour)

might it be Tina Thompson who stood in the Blidworth division for the County Council in May?

[Tony Otim]

OP now updated.

[Chris from Brum]

Sept 28, 2021 19:54:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

OP now updated.

Any reason for the "?" by Jon Olson's description, or is that a simple typo?

[Tony Otim]

Sept 28, 2021 20:23:47 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Sept 28, 2021 19:54:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

OP now updated.

Any reason for the "?" by Jon Olson's description, or is that a simple typo?

Failed to take it out from an early draft - Horsham published their notice of agents on Friday, but not the SOPN till Monday lunchtime, so I had the candidates names but not party labels - the other 3 had all stood somewhere in Horsham recently, so I could work them out, and was guessing the last one was a Lib Dem as they were defending the seat, hence the question mark, which then slipped through the editing once the SOPN was actually published. It is now gone though...

[shadsy]

Well, this week Smarkets have gone with the Rainworth South & Blidworth by-election. Very tricky.
smarkets.com/event/42427788/politics/uk/local-government/rainworth-south-blidworth-by-election

The opening mid-point odds would imply win probabilities of:
50% Lab
25% Cons
25% Ind

[phil156]

The Birmingham & Sherwood are counting Thursday but Horsham is counting Friday (There is always one!!!)

[mysticrobin]

How do folks see that Sherwood event going?

[shadsy]

Having only recently started paying much attention to these sorts of contests, it surprises me how little social media activity seems to be going on in some of these by-elections.

For the Rainworth South & Blidworth ward, literally the only thing I can find is a picture of the Labour candidate's dog.

[carlton43]

Oct 18, 2021 19:21:20 GMT mysticrobin said:

How do folks see that Sherwood event going?

CON Gain.

[John Chanin]

I am not a participant in the prediction competition, but I would be very surprised if Tina Thompson doesn’t win in Blidworth.

[mysticrobin]

Prediction competition? Where is this please?

[mysticrobin]

Ah, found it now.

[yellowperil]

Oct 19, 2021 14:54:07 GMT John Chanin said:

I am not a participant in the prediction competition, but I would be very surprised if Tina Thompson doesn’t win in Blidworth.

And that confident prediction of a Tory win,  from carlton43, should be qualified by saying he also no longer dares put his predictions into the prediction competition.

[mysticrobin]

Is that because he says the tories will win every time?

[carlton43]

Oct 19, 2021 18:24:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 19, 2021 14:54:07 GMT John Chanin said:

I am not a participant in the prediction competition, but I would be very surprised if Tina Thompson doesn’t win in Blidworth.

And that confident prediction of a Tory win,  from carlton43 , should be qualified by saying he also no longer dares put his predictions into the prediction competition.

'Dares' is not a word I have ever considered in my own life and conduct.  I left the silly competition because it showed that it was a pointless guessing game with no means of making a sensible judgement without a deal of research, and why waste the time rather than just wait for the actual damn result.

Unlike you and many others I am not a slow learner.  For a group of politically obsessed anoraks, you are mightily challanged in getting near the results unless they are obvious.  I just don't see the point.

[yellowperil]

I don't think I would do the competition if the challenge didn't force me to spend some time discovering what was at stake locally, and therefore also to understand the result rather more when it comes. Sometimes of course that is the point I realise I hadn't understood the local situation at all and I have to go back and see what I had missed. Most people on here do the competition for a few months and then give up, usually after a long run of bad predictions, more rarely (well Pete Whitehead mostly) after a long run of boringly spot-on predictions.

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Previews:

www.britainelects.com/2021/10/21/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-21-oct-2021/