|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 15, 2021 7:59:30 GMT
A clear case of name response. Liberal vote hardly changed. Conservatives gained ukip and pirate vote. Maybe a small factor, but a clear case? I think a not inconsiderable factor was that the Tories were able to field a strong credible candidate, not often the case these days. It was in the end a local election after all. I think the Lib Dem candidate was pretty strong too, but maybe a touch of complacency in that campaign? Not altogether surprising that kippers and pirates voted Tory. |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Oct 15, 2021 9:39:23 GMT
Liberal vote hardly changed. Conservatives gained ukip and pirate vote. Maybe a small factor, but a clear case? I think a not inconsiderable factor was that the Tories were able to field a strong credible candidate, not often the case these days. It was in the end a local election after all. I think the Lib Dem candidate was pretty strong too, but maybe a touch of complacency in that campaign? Not altogether surprising that kippers and pirates voted Tory. Labour’s intervention probably made the difference in this contest. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2021 9:45:41 GMT
So was the Tory candidate in Surrey Heath well known?
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 15, 2021 9:52:24 GMT
I know these figures are also accessible in Middleenglander's table above, but just as we're waiting for Pinner..
Frimley Green (Surrey Heath) by-election result:
CON: 48.5% (+19.6)
LDEM: 47.4% (-1.6)
LAB: 4.1% (+4.1)
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
No UKIP (-12.9) and Pirate (-9.1) as prev.
Chgs. w/ 2019
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 15, 2021 10:11:22 GMT
No news from Pinner South. Complete radio silence so far. Very odd.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 15, 2021 10:21:52 GMT
So was the Tory candidate in Surrey Heath well known? I think he had been around locally quite a long time without making a complete fool of himself ( and how often can you say that of Tory council candidates?) and I thought his local literature seemed quite good. Putting all party allegiances aside, I thought what I saw of his literature edged what I saw from the Lib Dems. I have to say I wasn't too happy with the Labour intervention- no problem with them standing a candidate, they have every right to do that,but an attempt to portray their candidate as the serious candidate and the LibDems as the no hopers, just on the basis of national standings, and when the reverse was obviously true, may have gained them just that handful of extra votes which gave the seat (and control of the council) back to the Tories.Not very clever. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Oct 15, 2021 10:39:39 GMT
So was the Tory candidate in Surrey Heath well known? I think he had been around locally quite a long time without making a complete fool of himself ( and how often can you say that of Tory council candidates?) and I thought his local literature seemed quite good. Putting all party allegiances aside, I thought what I saw of his literature edged what I saw from the Lib Dems. I have to say I wasn't too happy with the Labour intervention- no problem with them standing a candidate, they have every right to do that,but an attempt to portray their candidate as the serious candidate and the LibDems as the no hopers, just on the basis of national standings, and when the reverse was obviously true, may have gained them just that handful of extra votes which gave the seat (and control of the council) back to the Tories.Not very clever. A resident and small business owner for over 20 years according to Andrew’s Preview, whereas the Lib Dem candidate appeared to live outside the Ward, which, with only 19 votes between them may have played a role. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2021 10:59:56 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2021 11:02:47 GMT
Con 60.5%
LD 16.9%
Lab 14.4%
Grn 8.2%
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2021 11:03:02 GMT
So was the Tory candidate in Surrey Heath well known? I think he had been around locally quite a long time without making a complete fool of himself ( and how often can you say that of Tory council candidates?) and I thought his local literature seemed quite good. Putting all party allegiances aside, I thought what I saw of his literature edged what I saw from the Lib Dems.
I have to say I wasn't too happy with the Labour intervention- no problem with them standing a candidate, they have every right to do that,but an attempt to portray their candidate as the serious candidate and the LibDems as the no hopers, just on the basis of national standings, and when the reverse was obviously true, may have gained them just that handful of extra votes which gave the seat (and control of the council) back to the Tories.Not very clever.karma |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 15, 2021 11:15:28 GMT
Falkirk: Falkirk South - SNP gain from Labourbased on first preference votes | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | SNP | 1,691 | 39.2% | +3.5% | | Conservative | 1,676 | 38.9% | +6.8% | | Labour | 679 | 15.7% | -11.4% | | Green | 267 | 6.2% | +1.1% | | Total votes | 4,313 |
| 69% |
Swing: SNP to Conservative 1¾% since 2017 Council now: 13 SNP, 8 Labour, 7 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 non-aligned Harrow: Pinner South - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Conservative | 1,392 | 60.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +5.9% | +6.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 390 | 16.9% | +2.2% | +2.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 331 | 14.4% | -12.0% | -12.3% | -16.3% | -16.3% | | Green | 188 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -14.8% | -15.6% | | Total votes | 2,301 |
| 63% | 65% | 66% | 70% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 6¾% / 7% since 2018 and 11% / 11½% since 2014 Council now: 35 Labour, 27 Conservative, 1 vacancy Surrey Heath: Frimley Green - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | since 2015 "top" * | since 2015 "average" * | | Conservative | 896 | 48.5% | +19.6% | +20.3% |
| +3.2% | +2.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 877 | 47.4% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
| +18.9% | +19.0% | | Labour | 76 | 4.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
|
| -12.9% | -13.5% |
| -21.9% | -21.1% | | Pirate |
|
| -9.1% | -9.5% |
|
|
| | Christian |
|
|
|
|
| -4.4% | -4.9% | | Total votes | 1,849 |
| 89% | 93% |
| 56% | 62% |
* boundary changes increased electorate since 2015 by some 17½% Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 10½% / 10¾% since 2019 Council now: 18 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 6 Independent, 2 Green, 1 Labour Wigan: Leigh West - Labour hold | Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Labour | 1,004 | 56.2% | -0.4% | +13.0% | +2.1% | -3.8% | | Conservative | 423 | 23.7% | -1.9% | +15.6% | +8.2% | +16.0% | | Leigh West Independent ^^ | 257 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 103 | 5.8% | +2.0% | -0.9% | -0.8% | from nowhere | | LATT ^ |
|
| -14.1% | -16.9% |
|
| | UKIP |
|
|
| -25.2% |
| -27.5% | | Independent |
|
|
|
| -23.9% |
| | Green |
|
|
|
|
| -4.8% | | Total votes | 1,787 |
| 64% | 74% | 74% | 67% |
^ Leigh, Atherton & Tyldesley Together ^^ the Leigh West candidate in by-election stood as LATT in 2021 & 2019, Independent in 2018 and UKIP in 2016 Swing: Conservative to Labour ¾% since May but if particularly meaningful Labour to Conservative 1¼% since 2019, 3% since 2018 and 10% since 2016 Council now: 57 Labour, 8 Conservative, 6 Independent, 4 Independent Network
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 15, 2021 11:15:29 GMT
Looks like the Conservatives have had their conference bounce this week, or perhaps it’s a Boris being on holiday bounce.
Or could it be just that this weeks contests are a more favourable bunch for them than last week.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 15, 2021 12:00:12 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2021 12:11:17 GMT
I guess I can add this by-election to my body of evidence that Leigh was Labour's weirdest 2019 loss
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 15, 2021 12:20:52 GMT
And to be fair if all the evidence is that the Lib Dem vote is cratering nationally it is not unreasonable to suggest that it must be cratering in places that make up the nation An objective view would be that the Lib Dem national vote is down a bit since May 2019 and the Tory vote up considerably. And also that UKIP did not stand this time. The result is quite consistent with those changes. Lib Dem vote up 19% since 2015. That is when our vote was "cratering" |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 15, 2021 12:21:43 GMT
I guess I can add this by-election to my body of evidence that Leigh was Labour's weirdest 2019 loss Unlike some of the unexpected Conservative winners, James Grundy seems like he ticks a lot of boxes as a good fit for the constituency. He has a very very good electoral record and might have had a bit of a personal vote even before being elected? |
|
dizz
Labour
Posts: 1,088
Member is Online
|
Post by dizz on Oct 15, 2021 12:21:49 GMT
Good to see stage 3. Lol as regards the value of stage 4. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Oct 15, 2021 12:39:23 GMT
I’m not a connoisseur of Scottish politics, but it was interesting that c50% of the Labour vote didn’t transfer, and of the half that did it split pretty evenly between the SNP and the Conservatives. Is this normal? It looks a bit strange to an outsider.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 15, 2021 12:41:08 GMT
Good to see stage 3.
Lol as regards the value of stage 4. There is some value from a purely psephological pov, in Stage 4. In this case it shows us there were 452 Tories prepared to transfer to SNP - presumably to keep out Labour in that case. So for those anti-socialism trumped the union? |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 15, 2021 12:49:23 GMT
Good to see stage 3.
Lol as regards the value of stage 4. There is some value from a purely psephological pov, in Stage 4. In this case it shows us there were 452 Tories prepared to transfer to SNP - presumably to keep out Labour in that case. So for those anti-socialism trumped the union? Some of those were presumably onward transfers from Greens and Labour. Then quite a lot of Tories faced with 4 spaces on a ballot paper will have included a #4 for SNP just to avoid any ambiguity.. The final transfer stage probably makes sense as a check that things add up to the number of ballots cast, including non transfers |
|
