2022 French presidential election

[Devil Wincarnate]

Why this rash of polls featuring Barnier? Unless the ones with Bertrand and Pécresse just aren't being shared as much.

[relique]

Oct 1, 2021 16:20:30 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Why this rash of polls featuring Barnier? Unless the ones with Bertrand and Pécresse just aren't being shared as much.

I don't think there is such a rash. Most polls I see are with Bertrand and often feature a "variant" with Pécresse, and sometimes Barnier.

In most polls, there are such variants. You must have sources who, by default, put the version with Barnier.

[hullenedge]

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhl

Éric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election.

A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent.

He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz.

[relique]

Oct 3, 2021 7:33:02 GMT hullenedge said:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhl

Éric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election.

A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent.

He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz.

"raised eyebrows" is probably a euphemism... When I discussed what was the french far-right (historically and now) with @boogieeck , I guess I would have used Eric Zemmour as an example of what Jean-Marie Le Pen (and his daughter) used to represent...

[rcronald]

Oct 3, 2021 7:33:02 GMT hullenedge said:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhl

Éric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election.

A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent.

He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz.

I would have expected a French Jew like himself (although he is probably an Algerian/Pied Noir Jew) to know that this is bollocks…..

[Devil Wincarnate]

Zemmour (who says he isn't a pied-noir but rather describes himself as aBerber Jew, but of course a Frenchman) knows what he's doing here. He knows he can make comments that attract the more Vichy voter in a way that MLP absolutely could not.

And he gets the platform to do so, which the Le Pens never really did. For all the anti-establishment tagging, Zemmour is a grad from the Sciences Po, a regular television personality and radio guest. On that note, he has just been dropped by CNews because of rules about airtime for candidates (even though he hasn't declared yet).

[rcronald]

Oct 3, 2021 12:05:32 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Zemmour (who says he isn't a pied-noir but rather describes himself as aBerber Jew, but of course a Frenchman) knows what he's doing here. He knows he can make comments that attract the more Vichy voter in a way that MLP absolutely could not.

And he gets the platform to do so, which the Le Pens never really did. For all the anti-establishment tagging, Zemmour is a grad from the Sciences Po, a regular television personality and radio guest. On that note, he has just been dropped by CNews because of rules about airtime for candidates (even though he hasn't declared yet).

Zamour should know that the only reason Berber Jews are the large majority of French Jews and not actual mainland French Jews (Ashkenazi) today is that Pétain gave the Nazis the Jews of Vichy France…..

[The Bishop]

Ah, at last an election that might actually fit Badlose's all-encompassing narrative. It has been a while

[relique]

Well, for the moment, in France, polls are just indicators of media exposure. Zemmour is all over the media. So he's up.

In February-march, polls start to be a bit more about political support, as media exposure starts to be a bit more equal between the candidates.

[carlton43]

Oct 6, 2021 11:46:22 GMT Andrew_S said:

If I were a French voter I think I would give up on Le Pen who has gone soft on many issues and back Zemmour just for the hell of it if Le Pen is also failing in the current polls.

That does leave us with the just possible idea of a complete Le Pen collapse of people like me into Zemmour and a Zemmour lead on the first round outright.

Could it?  Could it?

[relique]

I don't think so. Le Pen has an base of voters that would not desert her. I don't think she could go lower than 11-12%.

[relique]

Oct 6, 2021 15:39:29 GMT Andrew_S said:

Oct 6, 2021 13:41:01 GMT relique said:

I don't think so. Le Pen has an base of voters that would not desert her. I don't think she could go lower than 11-12%.

Would most of her votes transfer to Zemmour in the second round if he gets into it?

I guess so. But, in France, second round polls are useless...before the first round. Whe should not trust them, one way or another.

And first round polls usually are bad indicators until january-february.

[relique]

Oct 6, 2021 17:27:52 GMT @boogieeck said:

Wrong-way round. Will all his votes transfer to her?

That's less sure. Not that they would go to Macron.

What his rise in the polls indicates, to me, is not his "destiny" to become PR or even in the second round. What's new is the fragility of the Le Pen candidacy. She will be weakened by this, even if Zemmour goes down afterwards.

[relique]

Oct 6, 2021 17:36:27 GMT @boogieeck said:

Does it not make her look comparatively moderate to centre-right voters? While not harming her hard or even far-right credentials in the second round?

That might be a little too theoretical for me, but I don't think so. But the campaign will be long. She hasn't done much for now and doesn't appear so much in the media. We'll see what she says once during the campaign. I don't think she will be seen as "moderate".

[Pete Whitehead]

I should imagine that there's a non-negligible section of the French far-right that would be disinclined to vote for a Jew ?

[relique]

Oct 7, 2021 9:21:41 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I should imagine that there's a non-negligible section of the French far-right that would be disinclined to vote for a Jew ?

If the Jew said Vichy wasn't so bad, they will probably not mind.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Zemmour polling well runs the risk of some real tosser from the PAF (the world of French television and radio celebrity) running next time. Either seriously or as a "hilarious" jape.

If Macron can do it, and Zemmour who is stronger meat can appeal too, someone will fancy their chances. At least two people spring to mind.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Marine Le Pen visited ethnic housing estates yesterday which have been plagued by gang wars between rival ethnic minority drug dealing gangs. France is in real trouble on that front. Then she went to the copshop in Cavaillon. I think that this is her shedding part of her moderation campaign to take on Éric Zemmour, I don't think it'll work though. As we know, he isn't even a candidate, yet he's beating her in several polls already.

[maxque]

Oct 16, 2021 0:39:36 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Marine Le Pen visited ethnic housing estates yesterday which have been plagued by gang wars between rival ethnic minority drug dealing gangs. France is in real trouble on that front. Then she went to the copshop in Cavaillon. I think that this is her shedding part of her moderation campaign to take on Éric Zemmour, I don't think it'll work though. As we know, he isn't even a candidate, yet he's beating her in several polls already.

It is no wonder the area is controlled by drug gangs, just by the look of that building, you can tell the State has given up on that area pretty much as soon it was built.

[The Bishop]

Zemmour could yet be a bubble that bursts well before next spring.