stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 30, 2021 22:10:19 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Oct 1, 2021 4:19:20 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2021 6:16:04 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. ... and has always been - those gilets jaunes were after all no actual opponent with a clear identity/ideology. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2021 8:40:11 GMT
Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. ... and has always been - those gilets jaunes were after all no actual opponent with a clear identity/ideology. p.scr.: Although i must admit, that i was at this time 5 years ago far away from expecting a RunOff Macron vs. LePen. Surely a lot can happen. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 1, 2021 9:10:41 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. I can personally say that if I was French I would have voted in the second round in 2017 for La-Pen and because of his strong rightward shift since 2017 there is probably a 50% chance I’ll prefer him over La-Pen in 2022. (although I would enthusiastically support Bertrand In the first round) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 1, 2021 16:20:30 GMT
Why this rash of polls featuring Barnier? Unless the ones with Bertrand and Pécresse just aren't being shared as much.
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Post by relique on Oct 1, 2021 18:53:47 GMT
Why this rash of polls featuring Barnier? Unless the ones with Bertrand and Pécresse just aren't being shared as much. I don't think there is such a rash. Most polls I see are with Bertrand and often feature a "variant" with Pécresse, and sometimes Barnier.
In most polls, there are such variants. You must have sources who, by default, put the version with Barnier.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 3, 2021 7:33:02 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhlÉric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election. A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent. He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz.
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Post by relique on Oct 3, 2021 7:50:45 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhlÉric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election. A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent. He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz. "raised eyebrows" is probably a euphemism... When I discussed what was the french far-right (historically and now) with boogieeck , I guess I would have used Eric Zemmour as an example of what Jean-Marie Le Pen (and his daughter) used to represent... |
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boogieeck
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Post by boogieeck on Oct 3, 2021 8:54:49 GMT
Here is an example of how any Holocaust denial laws corrupt history
It is better that he is able to say this publicly and allow the light to disinfect him
There will have been individual French Jews who through connections or bribes were kept safe
Anyone would have used their money or connections to keep their family safe be it Jew, political activist or parent of a handicapped child no criticism applies to this
But it will be misrepresented as an example of a French Jew being protected
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2021 9:01:28 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pens-father-backs-far-right-rival-eric-zemmour-for-presidency-72zl2lhhlÉric Zemmour, a right-wing polemicist with apparent ambitions to become France’s next president, has received a surprise endorsement from his arch rival’s cantankerous father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, as he surges in the polls before next April’s election. A poll this weekend, however, showed support for Zemmour has jumped to 15 per cent, almost double his rating a month ago, putting him a single point behind Marine Le Pen, 53, his main rival on the far right, and ahead of all the mainstream conservative contenders. President Macron remains well in the lead on 24 per cent. He also raised eyebrows by repeating claims in a recent interview that General Philippe Pétain, the head of the collaborationist wartime Vichy France, had “protected French Jews” and handed only “foreign” ones to the Nazis, which brought condemnation from historians and from the descendants of French Jews murdered in Auschwitz. I would have expected a French Jew like himself (although he is probably an Algerian/Pied Noir Jew) to know that this is bollocks….. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 3, 2021 12:05:32 GMT
Zemmour (who says he isn't a pied-noir but rather describes himself as aBerber Jew, but of course a Frenchman) knows what he's doing here. He knows he can make comments that attract the more Vichy voter in a way that MLP absolutely could not.
And he gets the platform to do so, which the Le Pens never really did. For all the anti-establishment tagging, Zemmour is a grad from the Sciences Po, a regular television personality and radio guest. On that note, he has just been dropped by CNews because of rules about airtime for candidates (even though he hasn't declared yet).
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2021 12:22:57 GMT
Zemmour (who says he isn't a pied-noir but rather describes himself as aBerber Jew, but of course a Frenchman) knows what he's doing here. He knows he can make comments that attract the more Vichy voter in a way that MLP absolutely could not. And he gets the platform to do so, which the Le Pens never really did. For all the anti-establishment tagging, Zemmour is a grad from the Sciences Po, a regular television personality and radio guest. On that note, he has just been dropped by CNews because of rules about airtime for candidates (even though he hasn't declared yet). Zamour should know that the only reason Berber Jews are the large majority of French Jews and not actual mainland French Jews (Ashkenazi) today is that Pétain gave the Nazis the Jews of Vichy France….. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 6, 2021 11:46:22 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2021 11:50:29 GMT
Ah, at last an election that might actually fit Badlose's all-encompassing narrative. It has been a while  |
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Post by relique on Oct 6, 2021 11:59:27 GMT
Well, for the moment, in France, polls are just indicators of media exposure. Zemmour is all over the media. So he's up.
In February-march, polls start to be a bit more about political support, as media exposure starts to be a bit more equal between the candidates.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2021 13:32:27 GMT
If I were a French voter I think I would give up on Le Pen who has gone soft on many issues and back Zemmour just for the hell of it if Le Pen is also failing in the current polls. That does leave us with the just possible idea of a complete Le Pen collapse of people like me into Zemmour and a Zemmour lead on the first round outright. Could it? Could it? |
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Post by relique on Oct 6, 2021 13:41:01 GMT
I don't think so. Le Pen has an base of voters that would not desert her. I don't think she could go lower than 11-12%.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 6, 2021 15:39:29 GMT
I don't think so. Le Pen has an base of voters that would not desert her. I don't think she could go lower than 11-12%. Would most of her votes transfer to Zemmour in the second round if he gets into it? |
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Post by relique on Oct 6, 2021 17:27:28 GMT
I don't think so. Le Pen has an base of voters that would not desert her. I don't think she could go lower than 11-12%. Would most of her votes transfer to Zemmour in the second round if he gets into it? I guess so. But, in France, second round polls are useless...before the first round. Whe should not trust them, one way or another.
And first round polls usually are bad indicators until january-february.
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