OWL
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Post by OWL on Aug 27, 2021 20:15:17 GMT
I was unable to find a thread below, so here is a thread for discussion of the 2022 French Presidential election, taking place on the 10 and 24 April. Candidates are not finalised. The traditional and now marginalised right will probably hold a primary featuring Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier (yes), Eric Ciotti, Xavier Bertrand doesn't seem to want to run in a primary. Naturally Macron is running and has cannibalised much of the "sane" right which is interested in governing. Le Pen will be a candidate (though there are rumours the base is not too pleased I think); the left will hundreds of candidates in order to ensure that they have no hope of getting to the second round. Various fringe/personality candidates likely too. The way things are going, I see no way of it not being a Macron/Le Pen runoff with Macron winning again, albeit by a narrower margin. It's worth noting that he has a considerably higher approval rating than his predecessors; something not easy for a president who is governing (i.e. has a parliamentary majority; the only popular presidents have ever been those who had the opposition actually in power). All could change in a year though: 6 months before 1981 Giscard was going to win and maybe even face Chirac in the runoff; 6 months before 1995, people were convinced of a Delors/Balladur runoff; we ended up getting a Jospin/Chirac runoff (  ). |
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Post by greyfriar on Aug 27, 2021 20:38:31 GMT
Barnier may well find a sweet spot by pitching to Le Pen’s eurosceptic voters and those sympathetic to them but put off by the racist trimmings, and Macron’s centrist heartland who are fed up with his pomposity. Will be interesting to see if Macron ends up hardening the already vociferous (from a UK perspective) rhetoric on Islam as a defence against the attack from the right.
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relique
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Post by relique on Aug 27, 2021 21:10:54 GMT
Barnier may well find a sweet spot by pitching to Le Pen’s eurosceptic voters and those sympathetic to them but put off by the racist trimmings, and Macron’s centrist heartland who are fed up with his pomposity. Will be interesting to see if Macron ends up hardening the already vociferous (from a UK perspective) rhetoric on Islam as a defence against the attack from the right. Was this irony ? Barnier finding a spot with eurosceptic ?? Barnier not illustrating the utmost pomposity ??
Barnier is a poor man's Macron. Or Edouard Philippe (minus the jokes and the panda beard)
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Aug 27, 2021 21:20:36 GMT
Barnier's candidature doesn't make sense since he's going after essentially the same electorate as Macron. Likewise Eric Ciotti's campaign could be straight out of the FN.
The only candidate from the right, it seemed to me, who represents a section of French society restricted and loyal to LR is Bruno Retailleau, though he announced yesterday that he's not running. He is very popular amongst Fillon loyalists and conservative Catholics (which is basically the core of LR now), while the others seem to want to peel off votes from Macron or Le Pen.
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Aug 27, 2021 21:22:43 GMT
Barnier may well find a sweet spot by pitching to Le Pen’s eurosceptic voters and those sympathetic to them but put off by the racist trimmings, and Macron’s centrist heartland who are fed up with his pomposity. Will be interesting to see if Macron ends up hardening the already vociferous (from a UK perspective) rhetoric on Islam as a defence against the attack from the right. Was this irony ? Barnier finding a spot with eurosceptic ?? Barnier not illustrating the utmost pomposity ??
Barnier is a poor man's Macron. Or Edouard Philippe (minus the jokes and the panda beard)
How are things going on the left... Honestly, their inability to present the slightest appearance of unity is extraordinary. At least all the LR figures accept the need for one candidate. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 27, 2021 21:26:10 GMT
Yes, it looks like another Macron vs. LePen with an obvious OutCome.
Yet, the regional elections have shown, that conservatives voting tactically for LR instead of LP is not entirely impossible.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 27, 2021 23:00:28 GMT
When I think our political choices are bad I then think of France. Macron or Le Pen. What a choice.
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Aug 28, 2021 7:37:54 GMT
When I think our political choices are bad I then think of France. Macron or Le Pen. What a choice. Don't worry; you'll have at least a million choices in the first round. |
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Post by independentukip on Aug 28, 2021 11:35:57 GMT
Will Macron require those voting in person to have the Pass Sanitaire? If so will that make any difference to the outcome; I assume postal voting is reasonably straightforward.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 28, 2021 11:49:37 GMT
Will Macron require those voting in person to have the Pass Sanitaire? If so will that make any difference to the outcome; I assume postal voting is reasonably straightforward. There is no postal voting in France. Only option to vote if you cannot is a procuration (made at the police station) that you give to someone else. |
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Post by independentukip on Aug 28, 2021 12:57:25 GMT
Will Macron require those voting in person to have the Pass Sanitaire? If so will that make any difference to the outcome; I assume postal voting is reasonably straightforward. There is no postal voting in France. Only option to vote if you cannot is a procuration (made at the police station) that you give to someone else. Thanks for that. If Macron decides to rig the election by requiring the Pass Sanitaire I trust the British Government will impose sanctions against him. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 28, 2021 15:14:31 GMT
Is there a continuity Front National (i.e. those not liking the change of name to "Rassemblement National") in France? I can't find one in Wikipedia or whatever.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 28, 2021 15:27:40 GMT
There is no postal voting in France. Only option to vote if you cannot is a procuration (made at the police station) that you give to someone else. Thanks for that. If Macron decides to rig the election by requiring the Pass Sanitaire I trust the British Government will impose sanctions against him. He doesn't have that power for 2 reasons. 1. The pass can only be required in places specified in the law; voting stations are NOT in it, as it was specified during the deliberations of the Senate. 2. The legal requirement expires mid-November, months before the election. So, Macron doesn't have that power, only the Legislature (including the Senate where the right, not his party, has a majority). |
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relique
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Post by relique on Aug 28, 2021 15:28:53 GMT
Will Macron require those voting in person to have the Pass Sanitaire? If so will that make any difference to the outcome; I assume postal voting is reasonably straightforward. He simply cannot. The constitution already forced him not to make the pass mandatory for religious buildings (except when it's a concert) and political meetings. You cannot restrict one's right for political meetings or voting. |
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OWL
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Post by OWL on Aug 28, 2021 16:37:18 GMT
Is there a continuity Front National (i.e. those not liking the change of name to "Rassemblement National") in France? I can't find one in Wikipedia or whatever. I'm sure there are several; the first which comes to mind is Florian Philippot's - he was upset that she doesn't want to immediately leave the euro. |
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relique
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Post by relique on Aug 28, 2021 16:40:41 GMT
Is there a continuity Front National (i.e. those not liking the change of name to "Rassemblement National") in France? I can't find one in Wikipedia or whatever. No there is none.
It's not a question of name, but of politics. Some from the FN might follow Eric Zemmour in his candidacy, including, maybe (but not probably) the niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
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Post by independentukip on Aug 28, 2021 17:38:35 GMT
Thanks for that. If Macron decides to rig the election by requiring the Pass Sanitaire I trust the British Government will impose sanctions against him. He doesn't have that power for 2 reasons. 1. The pass can only be required in places specified in the law; voting stations are NOT in it, as it was specified during the deliberations of the Senate. 2. The legal requirement expires mid-November, months before the election. So, Macron doesn't have that power, only the Legislature (including the Senate where the right, not his party, has a majority). I see, thanks. So subject to the constitution or a ruling thereof is any place specified in the law which also functions as a voting station enabled to enforce the Pass Sanitaire at elections or does their legal status change in the period they function as a voting station? It might expire in mid-November but it seems rather unlikely it won't be extended unless the protests and boycotts are a success. |
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relique
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Post by relique on Aug 28, 2021 17:48:47 GMT
He doesn't have that power for 2 reasons. 1. The pass can only be required in places specified in the law; voting stations are NOT in it, as it was specified during the deliberations of the Senate. 2. The legal requirement expires mid-November, months before the election. So, Macron doesn't have that power, only the Legislature (including the Senate where the right, not his party, has a majority). I see, thanks. So subject to the constitution or a ruling thereof is any place specified in the law which also functions as a voting station enabled to enforce the Pass Sanitaire at elections or does their legal status change in the period they function as a voting station? It might expire in mid-November but it seems rather unlikely it won't be extended unless the protests and boycotts are a success. The place is not regulated. The activity is. If a public room is given by the mayor to a political party to hold a meeting, no pass will be necessary. If this room is used for a concert, a pass will be necessary. If the room is used as a polling station, no pass will be necessary.
You can enter a restaurant without validating a pass, if you're a postal worker coming outside the opening hours to give out a package.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 28, 2021 20:23:07 GMT
Is there a continuity Front National (i.e. those not liking the change of name to "Rassemblement National") in France? I can't find one in Wikipedia or whatever. No there is none.
It's not a question of name, but of politics. Some from the FN might follow Eric Zemmour in his candidacy, including, maybe (but not probably) the niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
What happened to Jean-Marie's weird Joan of Arc groupie sect? |
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relique
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Post by relique on Aug 28, 2021 20:40:41 GMT
No there is none.
It's not a question of name, but of politics. Some from the FN might follow Eric Zemmour in his candidacy, including, maybe (but not probably) the niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
What happened to Jean-Marie's weird Joan of Arc groupie sect? I think it was just one or two press release just to piss off his daughter. He's 93 now and I don't think he's still got many people around him |
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