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Post by relique on Sept 23, 2021 19:45:49 GMT
Well we were 3 million last time voting blank, not choosing between cause and consequence (I deliberately put aside the 12 million who just didn't vote as I think there are too many poor and unreliable interpretations of abstentionism not to add another one). I don't see that number getting smaller. Honestly, though, I don't think Le Pen will qualify this time around. With Zemmour and her poor showing since the second round of 2017, her lack of dynamics and real motivation, I think someone else might qualify against Macron. It will either be Bertrand or a left wing candidate that manage to create some dynamics and benefit from some "useful vote" by left wing electorate. That last part might be wishful thinking of course as I am currently trying to create such dynamics for my candidate  And just a reminder: polls estimated Le Pen's RN between 24 and 25 on the last régional election. They finished at less than 19. The bogeyman is also a tool used by the pollsters. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 23, 2021 20:13:31 GMT
Macron (LREM, center-right, incumbent) : 26% Le Pen (RN, far-right) : 20,5% Bertand (supported by LR, right-wing) : 14% Zemmour (no affiliation, far-right): 10% Mélenchon (Insoumis, radical-left): 8% Jadot (Green party, center-left): 6% Hidalgo (Parti socialiste, center-left): 4% Montebourg (former PS, left-wing) : 4% Dupont-Aignan (DLF, radical-right): 2% Roussel (Parti Communiste Français, radical-left): 2% Poutou (Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste, trotskyst, far-left): 2% Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière, trotskyst, far-left): 1,5% WOW I really mean wow Le Pen comfortably clear in second and in the run-off on 20%. That is the first story. No likely challenger, she can focus from day one on Macron and the run off. Bertand (supported by LR, right-wing) : 14% Zemmour (no affiliation, far-right): 10% Dupont-Aignan (DLF, radical-right): 2%...God those are massive they all look like transfers to le Pen .......I have her on 46% Macron is wholly reliant on getting the entire left-wing block to come out and vote holding their noses. He has almost no room for leakage. But they are asking the voter to do it *again*. That is very different form asking them *do it". And he is Macron, and a tad Marmite. And she is le Pen. We have has the bogey man stuff for decades. How long does it stick for? At what point to even people who dislike her and all she stands for go "meh" ? Why would The Republicans entirely shift to Le Pen? Surely many would line up behind Macron? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 23, 2021 22:09:57 GMT
At this point 5 years ago, Le Pen was ahead in most of the polls with Juppé being the only candidate to have a lead over her. Macron was consistently polling in the low teens in 4th or 5th place.
I'm not sure there's anything here to suggest Le Pen would do much better in the second round than the mid-30s she got last time.
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Post by relique on Sept 23, 2021 22:35:14 GMT
At this point 5 years ago, Le Pen was ahead in most of the polls with Juppé being the only candidate to have a lead over her. Macron was consistently polling in the low teens in 4th or 5th place. I'm not sure there's anything here to suggest Le Pen would do much better in the second round than the mid-30s she got last time.
I didn't share it, but the same poll did a second round "Le Pen v Macron" poll with 58/42 .
I would usually advocate against trusting second round polls (as French people chose their second round vote AFTER the first round, and it always depends a lot on the first round results), but I rather trust second round polls with two candidates THAT ALREADY faced each other in a vote. In this situation (and only this one), people polled have a good reference, which is the last time they were faced with the vote.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 24, 2021 3:49:33 GMT
At this point 5 years ago, Le Pen was ahead in most of the polls with Juppé being the only candidate to have a lead over her. Macron was consistently polling in the low teens in 4th or 5th place. I'm not sure there's anything here to suggest Le Pen would do much better in the second round than the mid-30s she got last time. In case of entering the RunOff - which is especially since the RegionalElec. not so certain anymore - she would have good chances to end above 40%, but even 45% is not likely, when she is already now at/below it. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 24, 2021 8:41:39 GMT
Just to clarify for those who aren't aware of him. Zemmour is a particularly curious beast. He might be politically on the fringe, but he is a well-known figure in the french media. He was a "chroniqueur" (guest who is allowed to shout at other guests) on a major show, On n'est pas couché, for many years. And had his own show alongside another shit-stirrer, Éric Naulleau, for a long time.
Regardless of what one thinks of him or his politics, polling at 10 per cent is impressive for a one-man band.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 24, 2021 9:56:01 GMT
Just to clarify for those who aren't aware of him. Zemmour is a particularly curious beast. He might be politically on the fringe, but he is a well-known figure in the french media. He was a "chroniqueur" (guest who is allowed to shout at other guests) on a major show, On n'est pas couché, for many years. And had his own show alongside another shit-stirrer, Éric Naulleau, for a long time. Regardless of what one thinks of him or his politics, polling at 10 per cent is impressive for a one-man band. Yes, although it's doubtful, that it will remain so high. Impressive is also, that LePen remains nevertheless above 20%. (And that artist might even let her look serious&moderate after all...) |
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Post by ibfc on Sept 28, 2021 18:56:51 GMT
Today was the first round of the Green party (and affiliates) primary. To no surprise, the 'centrist', consensual and would-have-the-greatest-number-of-votes candidate, Yannick Jadot (MEP) did quite poorly (compared with expectations as he had the most support from the big names) with only 28%, and the completely-crazy-will-never-amount-to-more-than-2%-talking-about-witchcraft-better-than-science (and one of my former teacher and colleague, and I can quite agree with the description) Sandrine Rousseau (VP of Lille university, former VP of Nord-Pas de Calais Region, she got 4,5% at the following 2015 election, not getting her campaign money reimbursed - you gotta have 5%) did ok with 25%. A bit of a surprise, the second 'mainstream' (but radically left wing) candidate Eric Piolle, mayor of Grenoble, did quite poorly with only 22%, behind the surprise of the election, Delphine Batho (who is not part of the Greens but president of an even smaller party, Génération Ecologie) MP (former PS) got 22%, getting the third place ahead of Piolle. There was 122,000 registered voters and about 108,000 votes. It's really difficult to predict in such a small number of voters (no pollster was really able to target this small number and so the polls were quite bad), and the dynamics of the voters will probably not be the same as the dynamics of the "big names" supporting each candidates, but I think Rousseau will win, to the glee of all the potential competitors against her, as she will most probably explode and have one of the smallest Green result in the presidential election. Every one is already comparing her to Eva Joly, the norwegian former judge who won against Nicolas Hulot (popular tv presenter, who then was recruited by Macron but left as he was not able to do what he wanted - Jadot is quite close to Hulot) and did quite badly (2,3%) at the 2012 presidential election, despite a very good showing in the 2009 european election (16,3%). The 2019 european election saw the Greens at 13,5% (with Jadot at the head of the list), and I think if Rousseau is designated, she might do worse. Eva Joly, at least, had some humor (she famously said "I know Dominique Strauss-Khan quite well, I indicted him") and a pretty good CV as a judge. Rousseau is a bureaucrat who always tried to teach and research less (through bureaucratic positions; she is a researcher-teacher in economics but in France you can reduce the number of hours you need to do by assuming administrative roles), who did quite badly as a politician in her only position (VP of a Region thanks to PS generosity in charge of universities, she didn't do much) and always failed to be elected on her name (in Valenciennes for MP, in Villeneuve d'Ascq for mayor, in Nord-Pas de Calais for president of the Region... ). She recently tried to be designated as head of a few institutions (Lille's political science school for instance) and when failing that, she decided to run for president. But at least, the campaign will be funny. A few weeks ago, she tweeted "Merci Jean-Pierre Belmondo d'avoir porté haut le cinéma français. Une dernière cascade, en espérant qu'elle n'ait pas été difficile" ("Thank you Jean-Pierre Belmondo for raising high french cinema. A last stunt, hopefully it wasn't difficult. "). Two things were noted about this twitt: Belmondo is called Jean-Paul; calling the passing of Belmondo "a stunt" and wishing "it wasn't difficult" is really, really weird, at least in french (there might be double-meanings, nuance that fail to translate ?) Jadot has won the run off 51-49 as per Europe Elects. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 28, 2021 19:27:36 GMT
I hesitated for Dupont-Aignan. He supported Marine Le Pen for the first time in 2017 on the second round, but he doesn't have the same position today. The "left-right" divide is an easy one to comprehend but quite a simplistic one. I wouldn't really trust it, notably to understand how electors might shift from one candidate to another. Macron is not left-wing, even center-left. He's a neo-liberal, which has always been a right-wing criteria since Lucas' critique, Thatcher and Reagan. Deal with it. I considered Macron to be Centre-Centre left in 2017 but he moved pretty sharply to the right. If Merkel is considered Centre right then Macron is more then Centre right…. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2021 20:44:32 GMT
I hesitated for Dupont-Aignan. He supported Marine Le Pen for the first time in 2017 on the second round, but he doesn't have the same position today. The "left-right" divide is an easy one to comprehend but quite a simplistic one. I wouldn't really trust it, notably to understand how electors might shift from one candidate to another. Macron is not left-wing, even center-left. He's a neo-liberal, which has always been a right-wing criteria since Lucas' critique, Thatcher and Reagan. Deal with it. I considered Macron to be Centre-Centre left in 2017 but he moved pretty sharply to the right. If Merkel is considered Centre right then Macron is more then Centre right…. Yes, that was a surprise - at least for me, who expected him to rule on progressivisme. Then the ministries of Finance & Commerce came to LR-people, what made it clear, that he would make (or at least try) liberalism (left in ethics, right in economy). But he was quite right in a lot of issues - surely fearing a LR-opponent instead of Mrs. LePen. |
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Post by ibfc on Sept 29, 2021 4:19:05 GMT
Will Zemmour finish ahead of Le Pen?
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 29, 2021 7:15:58 GMT
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-le-pen-vows-to-end-freedom-of-movement-and-slash-migration-cdj7drcsg'Her aim is to show that she has the professionalism to implement the curbs on immigration that polls suggest a majority of French voters want. Le Pen also needs to fend off a challenge from Éric Zemmour, 63, a far-right pundit who is preparing to run for the Élysée. She dismissed him as a “false prophet” promoting “hazardous and even dangerous” remedies, in sharp contrast to what she called her own “seriousness”.'
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2021 16:02:58 GMT
Will Zemmour finish ahead of Le Pen? Probably he will end as few months' media-hype. |
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Post by relique on Sept 29, 2021 16:52:18 GMT
Will Zemmour finish ahead of Le Pen? Probably he will end as few months' media-hype. Since Trump I stopped making predictions like that |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 30, 2021 21:43:33 GMT
Ou est Zemmour?
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 30, 2021 22:10:19 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him
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Post by ibfc on Oct 1, 2021 4:19:20 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2021 6:16:04 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. ... and has always been - those gilets jaunes were after all no actual opponent with a clear identity/ideology. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2021 8:40:11 GMT
Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. ... and has always been - those gilets jaunes were after all no actual opponent with a clear identity/ideology. p.scr.: Although i must admit, that i was at this time 5 years ago far away from expecting a RunOff Macron vs. LePen. Surely a lot can happen. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 1, 2021 9:10:41 GMT
It does seem Macron is assured a second term if Le Pen is in the second round again, she and her family name just have too much baggage and it gives Macron a lot of tactical support from people who may even despise him Macron is probably assured of a second term against almost all of his prospective opponents. I can personally say that if I was French I would have voted in the second round in 2017 for La-Pen and because of his strong rightward shift since 2017 there is probably a 50% chance I’ll prefer him over La-Pen in 2022. (although I would enthusiastically support Bertrand In the first round) |
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