stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 26, 2022 11:30:35 GMT
So is Macron likely to get a majority in the legislative elections?
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 26, 2022 11:39:30 GMT
Do they just not teach WWII in French schools or something? [br The only French battleship lost in combat was sunk by the Royal Navy a fact that still causes issues today. You’d think we did rather enough to make up for this fact :/ |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 26, 2022 12:00:35 GMT
So is Macron likely to get a majority in the legislative elections? Likely, or assured? |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Apr 26, 2022 12:06:55 GMT
Might it depend on what happens to LR and PS in the legislatives? If they're unable to outperform their presidential result like they did in 2017 then it could be far easier for LREM candidates to win run-offs against the more extreme parties on the left and the right.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 26, 2022 12:16:10 GMT
So is Macron likely to get a majority in the legislative elections? Likely, or assured? Well wondering both I suppose. The circumstances behind his win aren’t exactly the same as 2017 where he was a popular fresh new President so could there be some blacklash? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 26, 2022 12:23:52 GMT
New polling has En Marche etc ahead, but quite a bit down on their 2017 result. The far left and far right are well up and polling quite close to Macron. The Republican vote has collapsed. How that all works out in seat numbers is hard to tell. The greatest opposition to Macron currently is the Republicans, but many are considering defecting and the polling suggests a 2017 Socialist style meltdown (but some incumbents will survive with a very fragmented 1st round). Le Pen’s performance suggests a lot more seats for her party, but will her voters still turn out (many didn’t last time) and will the people who reluctantly voted for Macron to stop Le Pen bother to do so in a 2nd order election? There’s still a modest Zemmour vote which could break for the Front National and get then in the run-offs in a majority of the country. Melenchon got a good result in round 1, but a lot of his support is soft. There’s talk of a grand left alliance to prevent vote splitting, but Melenchon is not an easy man to work with. The left should get many more seats this time as their vote was very concentrated in round 1 (which of course means a low ceiling), but hypothetical polling found Melenchon even more toxic than Le Pen which may hurt them in the run-offs.
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 26, 2022 12:57:55 GMT
Low turnout will ensure very few triangulaires.
Most RN candidates will be a lot more unknown and a lot more mediocre than Le Pen, and most incumbents less toxic (to Le Pen voters) than Macron. Ie, "all the circonscriptions Le Pen won" is a quite a bit higher number than RN's ceiling (tho' the occasional freak win in a runoff against the Left in a historically Gaullist seat is of course possible).
That leaves the question of how many seats the Left can win (if they don't sabotage themselves out of the runoff en masse- it seems we'll definitely see deals but no doubt there'll be excemptions and dissident candidacies.) Which depends on how eliminated RN candidates' voters will split (those that will turn up at all).
Bottom line is I don't see it - at best Macron will have to officially rely on the LR rump (I maintain that Zemmour was in practice an LR disso candidate and that's where the bulk of his vote will return for the leges, so there certainly will be one.) But impossible is nothing.
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 26, 2022 14:19:27 GMT
No doubt the format has gotten messed up... list of all towns in Metropolitan France of >15k inscrits where Macron got below his overall share
Bruay-la-Buissière Pas de Calais 30.7 15k
Hénin-Beaumont Pas de Calais 32.9 18k
Liévin Pas de Calais 35.4 21k
Marignane Bouches-du-R 35.6 23k
Calais Pas de Calais 38.3 51k
Les Pennes-Mirabeau Bouches-du-R 38.6 18k
Agde Hérault 39.9 25k
Miramas Bouches-du-R 39.9 16k
Istres Bouches-du-R 41.5 30k
Lens Pas de Calais 42.0 22k
La Crau Var 42.0 16k
Coudekerque-Branche Nord 42.8 16k
Saint-Laurent-du-Var Alpes-Mariti 42.8 23k
Frontignan Hérault 42.9 19k
Allauch Bouches-du-R 43.1 17k
Menton Alpes-Mariti 43.2 22k
Fréjus Var 43.3 39k
La Vallette-du-Var Var 44.1 17k
Draguignan Var 44.3 26k
Six-Fours-les-Plages Var 44.3 31k
Orange Vaucluse 44.5 19k
Mandelieu-la-Napoule Alpes-Mariti 44.9 19k
Martigues Bouches-du-R 45.1 23k
Gardanne Bouches-du-R 45.5 17k
Cavaillon Vaucluse 45.8 17k
Béziers Hérault 46.0 46k
Vitrolles Bouches-du-R 47.0 25k
Cambrai Nord 47.1 23k
Wattrelos Nord 47.3 28k
Aubagne Bouches-du-R 47.5 34k
Boulogne sur Mer Pas de Calais 47.7 26k
Laon Aisne 47.8 15k
La Garde Var 47.8 20k
La Seyne-sur-Mer Var 48.0 45k
La Ciotat Bouches-du-R 48.2 31k
Cagnes-sur-Mer Alpes-Mariti 48.3 35k
Carpentras Vaucluse 48.7 19k
Lunel Hérault 48.7 18k
Abbeville Somme 48.8 18k
Sanary-sur-Mer Var 49.1 16k
Béthune Pas de Calais 49.4 17k
Hazebrouck Nord 49.4 17k
Maubeuge Nord 49.4 18k
L'Isle-sur-la-Sorgue Vaucluse 49.4 16k
Saint-Quentin Aisne 49.5 34k
Vallauris Alpes-Mariti 49.6 19k
Saint-Raphaël Var 49.8 31k
Le Cannet Alpes-Mariti 50.2 28k
Arles Bouches-du-R 50.3 37k
Narbonne Aude 50.3 39k
Toulon Var 50.4 105k
Salon-de-Provence Bouches-du-R 50.5 32k
Hyères Var 50.8 41k
Grasse Alpes-Mariti 51.0 34k
Mauguio Hérault 51.1 15k
Armentières Nord 51.2 17k
Dunkerque Nord 51.4 61k
Alès Gard 51.7 27k
Perpignan Pyrénées-Orie 52.0 68k
Vierzon Cher 52.0 18k
Soissons Aisne 52.1 17k
Villeneuve-sur-Lot Lot-et-Garonn 52.2 17k
Carcassonne Aude 52.5 30k
Pertuis Vaucluse 52.5 16k
Cannes Alpes-Mariti 52.6 51k
Dieppe Seine Maritim 52.8 21k
Douai Nord 52.8 26k
Sète Hérault 53.0 33k
le Grand-Quevilly Seine Maritim 53.5 19k
Antibes Alpes-Mariti 54.4 54k
Châlons-en-Champagne Marne 54.7 23k
Nice Alpes-Mariti 55.4 221k
Montluçon Allier 55.7 21k
Castres Tarn 55.8 30k
Muret Haute-Garonn 55.8 17k
Charleville-Mézières Ardennes 56.1 25k
Montélimar Drôme 56.1 27k
Manosque Alpes-de-Haut 56.4 16k
Haguenau Bas-Rhin 56.7 24k
Beauvais Oise 57.1 34k
Bergerac Dordogne 57.1 20k
Tarbes Hautes-Pyréné 57.2 26k
la Teste-de-Buch Gironde 57.6 23k
Gujan-Mestras Gironde 57.7 18k
Valenciennes Nord 57.7 25k
Montauban Tarn-et-Garon 57.8 42k
Décines-Charpieu Rhône 58.2 18k
Sens Yonne 58.5 16k
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2022 14:43:52 GMT
No doubt the format has gotten messed up... list of all towns in Metropolitan France of >15k inscrits where Macron got below his overall share Bruay-la-Buissière Pas de Calais 30.7 15k Hénin-Beaumont Pas de Calais 32.9 18k Liévin Pas de Calais 35.4 21k Marignane Bouches-du-R 35.6 23k Calais Pas de Calais 38.3 51k Les Pennes-Mirabeau Bouches-du-R 38.6 18k Agde Hérault 39.9 25k Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 26, 2022 14:53:53 GMT
No doubt the format has gotten messed up... list of all towns in Metropolitan France of >15k inscrits where Macron got below his overall share Bruay-la-Buissière Pas de Calais 30.7 15k Hénin-Beaumont Pas de Calais 32.9 18k Liévin Pas de Calais 35.4 21k Marignane Bouches-du-R 35.6 23k Calais Pas de Calais 38.3 51k Les Pennes-Mirabeau Bouches-du-R 38.6 18k Agde Hérault 39.9 25k Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. though Fréjus is the highest place on this list that I've actually visited and is very far from poverty and even further from charm. Seemed like quintessential Costa Geriatrica, except stacked on top of each other to save space, and not really that close to the sea if you're elderly and perhaps mobility-impaired. Nicely restored Roman arena, though. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 15:37:23 GMT
No doubt the format has gotten messed up... list of all towns in Metropolitan France of >15k inscrits where Macron got below his overall share Bruay-la-Buissière Pas de Calais 30.7 15k Hénin-Beaumont Pas de Calais 32.9 18k Liévin Pas de Calais 35.4 21k Marignane Bouches-du-R 35.6 23k Calais Pas de Calais 38.3 51k Les Pennes-Mirabeau Bouches-du-R 38.6 18k Agde Hérault 39.9 25k Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Apr 26, 2022 15:44:52 GMT
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Post by relique on Apr 26, 2022 16:20:03 GMT
And yet, we probably have the worst journalists when it comes to local political analysis |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Apr 26, 2022 18:33:20 GMT
Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco. They might welcome becoming Stoke-on-Trent! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2022 18:47:46 GMT
Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco. Calais is the highest on that list I've knowingly been to, as almost everyone on here will have been I guess, and it is no less grim than its reputation. I don't think I've been to Hénin-Beaumont or Liévin but I've been to Lens and a few other areas round there so its possible. Lens is one of the grimmest cities I've been to anywhere |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 19:06:33 GMT
Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco. Calais is the highest on that list I've knowingly been to, as almost everyone on here will have been I guess, and it is no less grim than its reputation. I don't think I've been to Hénin-Beaumont or Liévin but I've been to Lens and a few other areas round there so its possible. Lens is one of the grimmest cities I've been to anywhere Lens is on its way up of sorts. But you wouldn't want to linger and I'm struggling to think of a British city that really has that grimness (cross into Belgium and there are at least three worse places than Lens). Lille is great though. That and Toulouse might be my favourite cities in France. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 26, 2022 19:38:15 GMT
Toulouse is certainly great. But lacks access to the Mediterranean so I guess Marseille still wins for me.
I'll be passing through Calais in less than 30 hours if I understood the plan right, but it'll be dark so...
On a more serious note, Calais sticks out on the list of Lepenist towns not just for size but also as a real historic city, a place that, while it doesn't have a préfecture, easily could have one. The only other similar place (thanks to Toulon and Arles, which both have a weird charm all their own, voting for Macron by a hair) is Béziers. Which doesn't have a préfecture either. I wonder if that means sthg - if the lack of that link makes the Paris elites seem that much further away. (Note that Toulon wasn't the préfecture for most of the departement's history and Arles is tucked away on the very edge of Bouches du Rhône)
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Apr 26, 2022 20:51:35 GMT
So is Macron likely to get a majority in the legislative elections? Well he does have an alliance called Ensemble Citoyens consisting of the following parties. 1.LREM. 2.MoDem. 3.Agir. 4.TDP. 5.Horizons. 6.PRV. 7.EC. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 26, 2022 21:22:23 GMT
Calais is the highest on that list I've knowingly been to, as almost everyone on here will have been I guess, and it is no less grim than its reputation. I don't think I've been to Hénin-Beaumont or Liévin but I've been to Lens and a few other areas round there so its possible. Lens is one of the grimmest cities I've been to anywhere Lens is on its way up of sorts. But you wouldn't want to linger and I'm struggling to think of a British city that really has that grimness (cross into Belgium and there are at least three worse places than Lens). Lille is great though. That and Toulouse might be my favourite cities in France. I know it's not really a city, but the Burnley - Brierfield - Nelson - Colne strip must be a worthy contender? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 27, 2022 21:20:21 GMT
Cities:  Regions:  |
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