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Post by matureleft on Apr 25, 2022 4:40:08 GMT
As with any election when you are effectively forced into a choice between candidates you have no enthusiasm for there’s a huge amount of negative voting. But this looks a pretty extreme example. And the high abstention rate reflects how hard that choice was even with the knowledge of the powers of the post up for election. Thus it’s pretty unfair to suggest that 42 per cent of French people voted “for” Le Pen and her ideas and that 58 per cent voted “for” Macron.
I strongly suspect that the French will be wise enough, with the knowledge of the executive choice made, to limit Macron’s parliamentary powers. That would be unlike the follow up to most presidential wins that I can recall in which French presidents are often handed large confirmatory majorities.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2022 5:26:20 GMT
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Post by relique on Apr 25, 2022 6:05:03 GMT
As with any election when you are effectively forced into a choice between candidates you have no enthusiasm for there’s a huge amount of negative voting. But this looks a pretty extreme example. And the high abstention rate reflects how hard that choice was even with the knowledge of the powers of the post up for election. Thus it’s pretty unfair to suggest that 42 per cent of French people voted “for” Le Pen and her ideas and that 58 per cent voted “for” Macron. I strongly suspect that the French will be wise enough, with the knowledge of the executive choice made, to limit Macron’s parliamentary powers. That would be unlike the follow up to most presidential wins that I can recall in which French presidents are often handed large confirmatory majorities. Not always large. Mitterrand got himself a very narrow majority in 1988 after he dissolved the assembly. He then needed more than ever the center left and had to take on Rocard as PM , who was the biggest user of the article 49 alinéa 3 of the constitution for the government to force a Law to be adopted unless the national assembly censors the government. In 2002, Chirac highly benefitted from the announcement by the incumbent socialist PM that he would quit politics and the hatred by socialists to anyone who didn't support their candidate. The left was too busy killing each other off to attack the right. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 25, 2022 6:20:41 GMT
lmao the little creep is actually the first President reelected despite having a majority in parliament since de Gaulle. speaking of De Gaulle, i mean Dougal there's been some campaigning...
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 25, 2022 6:27:40 GMT
According to Belgian media Guadaloupe: Le Pen 69.6% Martinique: Le Pen 60.87% Guyane: Le Pen 60.7% In Saint Pierre at Miquelon it was close (50.7% to 49.3%). Saint Martin and Saint Barthélémy are reported as 55-60% for Le Pen. that is wild. I read that as general dissatisfaction and wonder how it could translate into separatist feelings. When I saw those, I did wonder how much the Covid restrictions (especially around travel, etc...) may have added to feelings of alienation and separation or even abandonment in some of these areas, contributing to the huge anti-Macron swing? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 25, 2022 7:12:21 GMT
Does anyone know why Macron did so well in Rhone? He lost support in every department around it.
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Post by relique on Apr 25, 2022 8:51:00 GMT
Does anyone know why Macron did so well in Rhone? He lost support in every department around it. There's the third most populous city, Lyon. With a big bourgeois vote. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 25, 2022 9:03:08 GMT
Does anyone know why Macron did so well in Rhone? He lost support in every department around it. There's the third most populous city, Lyon. With a big bourgeois vote. I thought it was due to Lyon but then I vaguely recalled that Lyon was no longer in the department and thought it was counted separately. |
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Post by ibfc on Apr 25, 2022 9:35:09 GMT
that is wild. I read that as general dissatisfaction and wonder how it could translate into separatist feelings. When I saw those, I did wonder how much the Covid restrictions (especially around travel, etc...) may have added to feelings of alienation and separation or even abandonment in some of these areas, contributing to the huge anti-Macron swing? General online chatter is that COVID restrictions impacting tourism are the biggest reason. |
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Post by matureleft on Apr 25, 2022 9:37:53 GMT
Since Macron is now term-limited one might wonder what will happen in 5 years. His party is his construct. French politics is far more fluid than ours with quite large parties disappearing and reviving over relatively short periods and key personalities driving realignment.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 25, 2022 10:30:22 GMT
Since Macron is now term-limited one might wonder what will happen in 5 years. His party is his construct. French politics is far more fluid than ours with quite large parties disappearing and reviving over relatively short periods and key personalities driving realignment. This is the crucial question. Maybe the Devil Wincarnate could give us his opinions. |
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Apr 25, 2022 10:41:08 GMT
So, do the #FBPE members of the forum believe that 42% of the French people voted for a far-right candidate or do they believe that the BBC are a bunch of lying twunts? Or both? And yes, it really is that simple Well Sky (owned and run by those well known woke lefties Robert and Lachlan Murdoch) have been calling Le Pen 'far right' as well, as have ITV - presumably they are all lying twunts? So, do the Brexiteer members of this forum think you are only mentioning the BBC because it serves your personal anti-BBC agenda or because you have't done any research? And yes, it really is that simple |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 25, 2022 11:13:06 GMT
So, do the #FBPE members of the forum believe that 42% of the French people voted for a far-right candidate or do they believe that the BBC are a bunch of lying twunts? Or both? And yes, it really is that simple Well Sky (owned and run by those well known woke lefties Robert and Lachlan Murdoch) have been calling Le Pen 'far right' as well, as have ITV - presumably they are all lying twunts? So, do the Brexiteer members of this forum think you are only mentioning the BBC because it serves your personal anti-BBC agenda or because you have't done any research? And yes, it really is that simple Sky isn't owned by the Murdochs or NewsCorp. |
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Post by willpower3 on Apr 25, 2022 13:03:06 GMT
Well Sky (owned and run by those well known woke lefties Robert and Lachlan Murdoch) have been calling Le Pen 'far right' as well, as have ITV - presumably they are all lying twunts? So, do the Brexiteer members of this forum think you are only mentioning the BBC because it serves your personal anti-BBC agenda or because you have't done any research? And yes, it really is that simple Sky isn't owned by the Murdochs or NewsCorp. Sky is the UK version of CNN now. GB News and the new TalkTV are the Fox Newses. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2022 14:29:05 GMT
Just thought of a way Le Pen might win — if voters have been lying even to themselves when they reply to anonymous polling questions, saying they're going to vote Macron when in fact they're going to vote for Le Pen. In reality, the FN underperformed their polling as usual - even if only by a few points this time. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 25, 2022 15:04:23 GMT
There is a very weird longstanding tendency by ALL of the French media, regardless of personal views, of misinterpreting first round results as more favorable for the Right than they objectively are. (That is to say, historically speaking, primarily the Gaullist camp and not so much FN, but I've noticed it about RN in recent years too.) I really don't know what's behind that.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 25, 2022 17:32:36 GMT
There is a very weird longstanding tendency by ALL of the French media, regardless of personal views, of misinterpreting first round results as more favorable for the Right than they objectively are. (That is to say, historically speaking, primarily the Gaullist camp and not so much FN, but I've noticed it about RN in recent years too.) I really don't know what's behind that. I don't know if that's a result of the right being less divided than the left (as seems to happen in the UK), making it seem like the right is more popular than it actually is - especially when viewed from a FPTP lens. In the first round, the left vote was divided between six candidates compared to four for right (and two for the centre; might be slightly different depending on different views of candidate positions). In terms of votes, France is divided almost a third each between the left, right and centre. If the votes for Poutou and Arthaud in the first round all went to Mélenchon, he would've been in the final round over Le Pen. This is without considering Macron is economically right of Le Pen, but Le Pen is socially right of Macron. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 7:10:36 GMT
Since Macron is now term-limited one might wonder what will happen in 5 years. His party is his construct. French politics is far more fluid than ours with quite large parties disappearing and reviving over relatively short periods and key personalities driving realignment. This is the crucial question. Maybe the Devil Wincarnate could give us his opinions. At this point, gut feeling alone-there will be an almighty battle for the succession and the winner will be someone we have not even thought about. If I'm going to pick a name though, I'd go for Julien Denormandie, currently at Agriculture-he was an early acolyte of Macron, has a not dissimilar profile but in engineering not finance. He'll probably be promoted to a senior position once Castex is knifed. The big question though: is Macron willing to let his creation wither in his absence, or will he hang around as an eminence grise? He could well end up dominating French politics in some manner for the next thirty years, like a less malevolent Andreotti. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 26, 2022 8:17:11 GMT
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Apr 26, 2022 9:27:10 GMT
Do they just not teach WWII in French schools or something? [br The only French battleship lost in combat was sunk by the Royal Navy a fact that still causes issues today. |
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