Quite a lot has happened in the last two weeks.
In a very wrong order (sorry):
- the "parrainages" procedure started: all mayors, councillors (at the Région and Département level, as well as in the french from abroad council) and members of parliament can sign for any french citizen to be able to run for president. One needs 500 "parrains" with no more than 10% from one département. The potential "parrains" are only saying the person they chose is acceptable, not that they support him. However, the rules on transparency have changed. In the past, the candidates collected the forms and deposited them at the Conseil Constitutionnel. The Conseil then validates the signatures (sometimes eliminating those who signed for several candidates, so that usually, one needed 600 signatures to be safely accepted to run) and published 500 of all of the signatures collected by candidates, at random. Now, all signatures must be sent by post by the person signing (who is sent the proper form on the first day of opening), and are published on a regular basis (twice every week) once they are validated by the Conseil Constitutionnel.
- Emmanuel Macron, not even a candidate yet, has obtained the necessary number of signatures after one week, on the second publication, thursday february 3rd. Valérie Pécresse and Anne Hidalgo obtained the necessary number at the following third publication, tuesday february 8th.
This is the total number for every person who received a parrainage up until yesterday:
PECRESSE Valéri (LR): 1 249 (+310 from the previous publication)
MACRON Emmanuel (LREM): 1050 (+124)
HIDALGO Anne (PS): 790 (+138)
ARTHAUD Nathalie (LO, trotskyst, candidate in 2017): 419 (+51)
LASSALLE Jean (former Modem, candidate in 2017): 382 (+66)
ROUSSEL Fabien (PCF): 381 (+55)
JADOT Yannick (EELV): 325 (+57)
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas (DLF, candidate in 2017): 280 (+48)
LE PEN Marine (RN, candidate in 2017): 274 (+135)
MÉLENCHON Jean-Luc (LFI, candidate in 2017): 258 (+34)
ASSELINEAU François (UPR, pro-frexit, candidate in 2017): 193 (+22)
ZEMMOUR Éric (Reconquête): 181 (+32)
POUTOU Philippe (NPA, trotskyst, candidate in 2017): 146 (+19)
KAZIB Anasse (former NPA, trotskyst): 99 (+15)
THOUY Hélène (PA, animal party): 56 (+8)
TAUBIRA Christiane (left-wing, designated by the "primaire populaire", candidate in 2002): 47 (+11)
KOENIG Gaspard (libéral): 27 (+4)
KUZMANOVIC Georges (République Souveraine, former Insoumis): 27 (+2)
MIGUET Nicolas (has run at every possible election, Rassemblement des contribuables français): 9 (=)
EGGER Clara (political science teacher, candidate for a yellow vest inspired group that wants to promote the Réferendum d'Initiative Citoyenne): 7 (+1)
CHICHE Arnaud (anesthetist doctor who wants to talk about healthcare): 5 (+1)
MARTINEZ Antoine (former military, far-right): 5 (=)
ROCCA Martin (22, "no platform, no party, just democracy" is his slogan): 2 (+1)
SMATI Rafik (Objectif France, right-wing): 2 (=)
BARNIER Michel (LR): 1 (=)
BEKAERT Corinne ("Osons la différence"): 1 (=)
CAU Marie (left-wing, who's only argument seems to be a transgender mayor): 1 (=)
FESSARD DE FOUCAULT Bertrand (former diplomat): 1 (+1)
FORTANÉ Jean-Marc: 1 (+1)
MARECHAL Philippe Célestin: 1 (=)
MAZUEL Philippe: 1 (=)
PHILIPPOT Florian (Les Patriotes, former RN first VP): 1 (+1)
RIVOAL Stéphanie: 1 (+1)
SCHOVANEC Josef: 1 (=)
VIEIRA Gildas: 1 (+1)
There's not many surprises:
- as could be expected, Le Pen, Mélenchon and Zemmour are quite low. Le Pen and Zemmour mostly targeting the same audiences (and having very bad local networks to go and meet all the mayors to convince them), Mélenchon not being supported by PCF this time and therefore losing their numerous signatures.
- Poutou, former candidate, is weakened by a very microscopic following and a division by "CCR", a faction of NPA which seceded and presented Anasse Kazib. They might both get eliminated and LO be the only trotskyst party represented.
- Lassalle has a really really good showing, thanks to his image of the "rural candidate" and some helpful networks in rural areas, and his visists to a lot of mayors. He did the job to get the signatures.
- Taubira is having an abysmal showing, which is a very clear depiction of (1) her lack of appeal outside the microcosmic media and activist bourgeoisie; (2) her lack of local networks and activist to get the signatures; (3) her campaign going only downhill since her nomination.
- On the left side, Taubira was nominated by the "primaire populaire" which gave her a "grade" 'well +'; Jadot (EELV) got 'fairly well +'; Mélenchon 'fairly well -', Larrouturou (former PS, former EELV, former Nouvelle Donne, which he founded and was then expelled from) 'adequate +', Hidalgo (PS): 'adequate +'; Marchandise (former PS, deputy-mayor of Rennes) 'adequate -' and Agueb-Porterie 'insufficient'.
As could be expected, this masturbation exercize by the "left-wing" bourgeoisie got no dynamics. Taubira sank since then in the polls to 3%, the same level as Hidalgo. Jadot is not making much headway as well, going dangerously close to 5% in the polls (above 5%, you get your campaign spending partially reimbursed; below you are not getting anything). Mélenchon is staying ahead but without any dynamics around 10%. The only one going up is Fabien Roussel, head of the PCF who got for the first time a 5% poll. That makes him the first head of the PCF beating the PS candidate in a poll since 40 to 50 years !!
Roussel is what we could call the left-wing anti-woke candidate, talking about popular class issues and putting aside all the woke nonsense. He celebrates Laïcité, supports nuclear energy, re-industrialization, is quite clearly designating fanatical Islam as the enemy, and says the popular classes should be able to get good meat, good cheese and good wine on their table (which receives hysterical accusation of fascism from the greens and other woke types). I think he would very well be the surprise on the left, surpassing Mélenchon in the end. Qualification to the second round will be tough, though.
- Macron is still largely ahead of the pack, picking up endorsements from former LR and PS politicians, weakening Pécresse whose campaign still is quite stuck in the mud. Le Pen and Zemmour still seem to neutralize each other for the time being. Qualification to the secound round could be as low as 16% (which is probably the only number the left can hope to have to qualify).
