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Post by relique on Dec 18, 2021 18:00:09 GMT
What has been the lowest vote share for the top two candidates in the first round? This time it could fairly easily be below 40 per cent. Definitely 2002:
Chirac (RPR, incumbent PR): 19,88% Le Pen (FN): 16,86%
Jospin (PS, incumbent PM): 16,18%
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Post by relique on Dec 18, 2021 18:02:08 GMT
Opinionway is usually a classical right-wing pollster Thanks. Do those figures sound credible to you? At this point in the race, polling figures are a good representation of TV air-time. Nothing else.
The evolution of numbers between january and february will give us the dynamics of the election. Until then: wait and see.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 20, 2021 3:25:22 GMT
Taken from another forum:  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 2, 2022 18:29:08 GMT
What happens if there is a close four way first round, and Zemmour and Le Pen go through? Macron wouldn't back either but would Pecresse relent and support one?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jan 2, 2022 18:53:03 GMT
What happens if there is a close four way first round, and Zemmour and Le Pen go through? Macron wouldn't back either but would Pecresse relent and support one? A very implausible assumption for candidates way off the top two. Both are fairly toxic for other voters and for either to get into the top-two would imply squeezing the other. It is inevitable that either a Centrist of Centre-Rightist will be in the run-off (if not two). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 2, 2022 19:11:33 GMT
What happens if there is a close four way first round, and Zemmour and Le Pen go through? Macron wouldn't back either but would Pecresse relent and support one? Pecresse has in the past said she would vote Socialist if they faced the National Front in a runoff, so I think she would back Zemmour over Le Pen if faced with the choice (both candidates would be too socially conservative/extreme, but Zemmour is much more free market). |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 6, 2022 9:29:04 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 6, 2022 12:39:29 GMT
the obvious being they're all live white men? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 6, 2022 14:45:32 GMT
Not a lot to see there. She's got all of her primary opponents, and all of the big hitters from past governments (and Copé). Keep them in the tent etc.
Plus, who does Poirier think should be in that team who isn't a white French bloke? Does she not remember LR being gutted by LREM? The leading women of the old era are nowhere to be seen: Dati hasn't surfaced for a while, MAM has retired, NKM is working abroad, Lagarde is at the ECB... And then you're down to people like Valérie Létard who aren't exactly big beasts. Or complete jokes like Christine Boutin or Rama Yade.
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jan 6, 2022 15:02:22 GMT
If Pécresse hadn't won the primary, would she have been part of the equivalent team for whoever was the candidate? She is a women after all.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 6, 2022 15:07:42 GMT
If Pécresse hadn't won the primary, would she have been part of the equivalent team for whoever was the candidate? She is a women after all. You'd have assumed so, and there was probably an agreement beforehand. It is noticeable that the language between Pécresse, Barnier, Ciotti and Bertrand has been very civil. They'll all be aware that a sense of division would torpedo whomever won. |
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Post by relique on Jan 6, 2022 17:37:40 GMT
Not a lot to see there. She's got all of her primary opponents, and all of the big hitters from past governments (and Copé). Keep them in the tent etc. Plus, who does Poirier think should be in that team who isn't a white French bloke? Does she not remember LR being gutted by LREM? The leading women of the old era are nowhere to be seen: Dati hasn't surfaced for a while, MAM has retired, NKM is working abroad, Lagarde is at the ECB... And then you're down to people like Valérie Létard who aren't exactly big beasts. Or complete jokes like Christine Boutin or Rama Yade.
Dati still counts. She did OK in the parisian municipal election. Yade is no longer LR indeed, and Boutin never was. Létard is quite an interesting politician, and quite qualified. She is also a link to Borloo, so not unworthy of attention.
In terms of LR (or close to LR) women, I'd think she could have chosen among this list:
- Valérie Boyer, senator (former MP, formerly a rising star of the Fillon campaign) - Laure Darcos, senator (she was the spokesperson for the "Libres!" movement founded by Pécresse) - Dominique Estrosi-Sassonne, senator (she was a spokesperson for the Xavier Bertrand primary campaign, former spouse of Christian Estrosi, and probably one of the most qualified parlementarian on housing policy) - Jacqueline Eustache-Brinio, senator (maybe a bit marginal, but a clear and loud voice for laïcité in parliament, I think she would be a catch for any campaign) - Muriel Jourda, senator (she became into prominence during the Benalla case, assuming one of the most visible roles in the senate investigation comity, well respected, she would be quite a good spokesperson to attack Macron and his management...) - Christelle Morançais, president of the Pays de la Loire region (reelected in 2021 quite surprisingly, she was probably the most vulnerable right-wing incumbent, one of Pécresse spokesperson during the primary campaign) - Natacha Bouchart, mayor of Calais, former senator and VP of the region - Martine Vassal, president of the Bouches-du-Rhône département (if you don't like Boyer in Marseille, maybe you'll prefer Vassal) - Brigitte Barèges, mayor of Montauban (she was recently exonerated on appeal on a fictitious employment case; although she might still be radiocative, like mayor of Aix-en-Provence Maryse Joissains Masini) - Agnès Evren, MEP (quite close to Pécresse, a former vice-president of hers in the Île-de-France region) - Nadine Morano, MEP, former government minister (she is not someone that is easily managed, though, and was criticized by Pécresse for going too close to the far-right; she supported Michel Barnier)
It's true that the LR grouping in the national assembly might not give a lot of opportunities. That is because of the new rules that force MPs not to assume a local council executive position: when you're in opposition, worthy politicians have found they were more useful in local government than in the national assembly. There is a bit more opportunities in the senate, as LR control the majority there and have more leeway to be an effective opposition to the government.
But I agree with your broad statement: a lot of former government ministers are retired from active politics. 10 years in opposition is long.
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Post by connor on Jan 6, 2022 17:42:55 GMT
the obvious being they're all live white men? Going for the Thatcher model here. A conservative leader with a room full of weaklings to dominate over. Worked well for her, until.... |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 7, 2022 1:49:58 GMT
I wonder what she'll do differently with the tail end of la PFUE compared to Macron?
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Post by matureleft on Jan 7, 2022 10:16:36 GMT
Mélenchon is an effective debate performer with a populist edge, is he not? The first round looks like a lottery with too many candidates competing for right of centre/populist votes. It looks possible that he might edge into the second round?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 7, 2022 12:30:06 GMT
Mélenchon is an effective debate performer with a populist edge, is he not? The first round looks like a lottery with too many candidates competing for right of centre/populist votes. It looks possible that he might edge into the second round? Given the lack of credible alternative left candidate, you would think so. However, Melenchon’s personal ratings are in the toilet, he’s polling well behind his 2017 result, and the right wing/conservative lane will probably become less congested by polling day. Melenchon is too unpopular and idiosyncratic to unite the left, but also too unpopular and far left/socially liberal to have substantial crossover appeal. So despite having a de facto centre right incumbent government the left remains completely unable to capitalise on voter unhappiness, and it doesn’t look like Melenchon is strong enough to sneak through to the second round either (he would almost certainly lose to Macron if he did). |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 7, 2022 13:27:52 GMT
Melanchon is past his peak appeal and is now too much of a well known quantity to offer anything particularly new to turn that around.
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Post by relique on Jan 7, 2022 22:03:29 GMT
relique: are there any credible scenarios where Macron doesn't make it to the second round? I don't know. Could we find credible in january 2017 that Fillon would not qualify to the second round because he employed his wife for years without her doing any work ?? What I know is that Macron's opposition is divided and does not inspire much at the moment. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 8, 2022 1:39:12 GMT
Mélenchon is an effective debate performer with a populist edge, is he not? The first round looks like a lottery with too many candidates competing for right of centre/populist votes. It looks possible that he might edge into the second round? Given the lack of credible alternative left candidate, you would think so. However, Melenchon’s personal ratings are in the toilet, he’s polling well behind his 2017 result, and the right wing/conservative lane will probably become less congested by polling day. Melenchon is too unpopular and idiosyncratic to unite the left, but also too unpopular and far left/ socially liberal to have substantial crossover appeal. So despite having a de facto centre right incumbent government the left remains completely unable to capitalise on voter unhappiness, and it doesn’t look like Melenchon is strong enough to sneak through to the second round either (he would almost certainly lose to Macron if he did). Bene. (Although i would really not insist on him being "socially liberal"...) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 8, 2022 17:38:54 GMT
Bold prediction: Macron wins, then goes again next time out. Only to find himself facing a celebrity who channels Coluche and runs for the presidency for a laugh/out of ego. Zemmour as the template.
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