neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 1, 2018 23:19:55 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Oct 1, 2018 23:38:37 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jan 23, 2019 23:04:30 GMT
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst has claimed in her divorce papers that her husband stopped her becoming Trump's VP 🔥🔥
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2019 12:52:45 GMT
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst has claimed in her divorce papers that her husband stopped her becoming Trump's VP 🔥🔥 So far, I like him. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 25, 2019 0:20:22 GMT
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst has claimed in her divorce papers that her husband stopped her becoming Trump's VP 🔥🔥 So far, I like him. Quite so. When a woman gets above her station it is the right, some might even say the duty, of a good husband to step in and correct such unacceptable behaviour through physical punishment. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2019 1:09:12 GMT
Quite so. When a woman gets above her station it is the right, some might even say the duty, of a good husband to step in and correct such unacceptable behaviour through physical punishment. Physical punishment? I was responding to the Trump VP remark, not aware of anything else. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 25, 2019 1:18:31 GMT
Quite so. When a woman gets above her station it is the right, some might even say the duty, of a good husband to step in and correct such unacceptable behaviour through physical punishment. Physical punishment? I was responding to the Trump VP remark, not aware of anything else. They are getting a divorce and it isn't pretty.
She alleged physical and mental abuse and affairs (but the court papers are now closed). Her husband (confusingly for us Brits named Gail) is alleging lots of things in return including putting his career on hold for her and affairs in Washington. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 25, 2019 1:22:31 GMT
Quite so. When a woman gets above her station it is the right, some might even say the duty, of a good husband to step in and correct such unacceptable behaviour through physical punishment. Physical punishment? I was responding to the Trump VP remark, not aware of anything else. Documents filed in court from Senator Ernst detail allegations of substantial physical and emotional abuse from her husband. She claims that she turned down the chance to be Trump's VP because she feared how her husband would react as he allegedly resented any success that she had in her career. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2020 19:16:57 GMT
Trump: minus infinity% I don't need to bother doing the questionnaire Bump! I have been browsing through this thread from 2016 just to compare. Midnight (UK time) on election night was on page 372; One week before election day (i.e. where we are now in 2020) was on page 352. Grim reading. Even some of the state exit polls on election night were way out compared with the final results. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2020 19:56:49 GMT
Four days before election day: I must confess that this is starting to get very funny. Dodgy polls all over the place, the media desperately trying to sell this as being on a knife edge, cowardly pundits hedging their bets, lots of Democrats in a state of panic and the Trumpanzees thinking that they are on the verge of victory. It's all nonsense of course. Clinton is still on course for a fairly solid electoral college victory. I have been getting increasingly anxious and on-edge in the last week or two because of the narrowing polls and the fear that there might be "something" which happens unexpectedly in the last week to upset everything, but (only today) I am just beginning to get cautiously calm and optimistic that Clinton really will win. This is based on the collective and individual aggregation of the polls in the swing states. I have also been reminding myself that it is reasonably easy for Clinton to win without even needing Florida OR Ohio. Unlike some, I am supporting Hillary Clinton with some degree of positive enthusiasm (despite her flaws) and not just on a "Stop Trump" basis. My biggest concern about her abilities is probably her health rather than her honesty or corruption or anger or whatever. I am looking forward to 21st January 2017 when (cringers fossed) the USA will finally join the club of major democracies which have had a woman leader. I have also been occasionally bemused by the thought that the whole thing might have been easier if Hillary had beaten Obama in the primaries in 2008 and become President in 2009. Two days before election day: The chances of a popular vote - electoral college split are rising. With HC wining the popular vote but losing the college being the possible result, as her polls in the battleground states aren't as good as her national % So, what size of gap would constitute a constitutional crisis, if HC won by 3%+ ?? Or will Richard Allen just say I'm talking nonsense as usual  Well yes, if you want to put it like that I do think you are talking nonsense. I remain very confident that Clinton will win but even if I am wrong about that I would be utterly astounded if she won the popular vote while losing the electoral college. I know I must sound like a broken record but I cannot overemphasise that people shouldn't be giving equal weight to every opinion poll. A lot of the state polling averages are skewed by polls that put simply are crap. It really is beyond me why various supposedly credible websites are using overtly biased polls in their averages and models. If you look at the fundamentals of this race, what the more reliable polls are telling us and the early voting trends all indications are that Clinton will win fairly comfortably in both the popular vote and the electoral college. One day before election day: I've been taking a look at the 2012 exit polls and most of them were darned accurate. For example, in Kansas the exit poll was Rep 60.0%, Dem 38.00%, and the result was Rep 59.71%, Dem 37.99%. In Pennsylvania the exit poll was Dem 52.16%, Rep 46.84% and the result was Dem 51.97%, Rep 46.59%. (emphasis added) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 28, 2020 20:05:08 GMT
I don't think the exit polls, as opposed to the opinion polls, were wrong in 2016. I don't remember any states being called incorrectly on election night for example.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 28, 2020 20:16:07 GMT
Physical punishment? I was responding to the Trump VP remark, not aware of anything else. They are getting a divorce and it isn't pretty.
She alleged physical and mental abuse and affairs (but the court papers are now closed). Her husband (confusingly for us Brits named Gail) is alleging lots of things in return including putting his career on hold for her and affairs in Washington. Gail?😳 |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 28, 2020 20:44:16 GMT
They are getting a divorce and it isn't pretty.
She alleged physical and mental abuse and affairs (but the court papers are now closed). Her husband (confusingly for us Brits named Gail) is alleging lots of things in return including putting his career on hold for her and affairs in Washington. Gail?😳 Indeed so. Gail/Gale was equally a name for men and women in the USA although the female version has become much more ascendent. The person who comes to mind is the actor Gale Gordon. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2020 23:31:35 GMT
I don't think the exit polls, as opposed to the opinion polls, were wrong in 2016. I don't remember any states being called incorrectly on election night for example. From page 373:From page 374:From page 375:From page 376:(bold bits inserted) There were various other exit polls more accurate, but even just a few, where there are differences of 4% or 5% between the exit poll lead and the result lead, is enough to make me still nervous. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 29, 2020 0:04:08 GMT
Here are some of the things that some people were saying in this thread about Trump in 2015. The identity of the writers is not important, so I have removed all the quotes and mixed them up a bit:
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March 2015:
the credible would include Bush, Rubio, Fiorina (and she has already all but announced that she will be seeking the nomination).
The incredible would include Santorum, Trump, Bolton, graham and (regrettably) Palin.
June 2015:
Donald Trump has announced he is running for president
He said the same thing in 2012 and soon dropped out . Expect the same this time. Sad attention seeker.
July 2015:
The odds of Corbyn becoming Labour leader and Trump becoming the GOP candidate are about 56 to 1 if you multiply the respective Betfair odds.
August 2015:
Just in case anyone thinks that Trump could be elected President here is one chart that shows why he cannot.
Hulk Hogan says he wants to be Donald Trump's running mate
September 2015:
Under the cloak of dorkish trumpiness, there is a man who will never ever ever be POTUS.
October 2015:
This is weird. Donald Trump and Ben Carson are the two people, more clearly and unambiguously than anybody else, who are not going to get the nomination. It is peculiar that the voters go through this unreal phase of expressing ridiculous preferences at this early stage in the selection process.
Whatever the polls say now Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee. If it is going to be an "outsider" it will be Cruz...
December 2015:
Trump now 5/1 with Ladbrokes to be next POTUS.
That shows how much betting odds are merely a measurement of how much money has been bet on things, and not a measure of probability of things happening.
The probability of Trump getting the nomination is about 1 in 10, and the probability (if nominated) of Trump winning against Hillary is about 1 in 8.
One theory is that Trump's actual support is higher than shown in opinion polls because people are embarrassed to say they're supporting him.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 29, 2020 9:57:55 GMT
Well that last sentence can certainly said to be true to this day, alas.
Interesting bit of digging around though John. A cautionary tale for everyone.
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