maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,250
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Post by maxque on Nov 9, 2016 10:48:36 GMT
Indeed, people in Ohio and Pennsylvania are not worried about immigration, as nobody immigrates there. Emigration and population loss is the reality there.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 10:56:15 GMT
Indeed I was, although I was hardly alone in that and while I do not wish to make excuses you can only rationally analyse elections on the basis of data. In this case the data that everybody was operating from was clearly flawed. There has not been a single poll this year showing Trump winning Wisconsin, the closest he got was Clinton +3. Of the vast number of polls in Pennsylvania Trump led in only 2, one of those was an obvious outlier from Quinnipaic several months ago and their later polls had Clinton winning while the other was from an overtly biased GOP pollster. Likewise in Michigan only a single poll, again from a notoriously biased partisan pollster had Trump winning. Anybody predicting Trump to win those 3 states (Michigan still hasn't been called) either had access to substantial private polling or was making their prediction on the basis of guesswork or what they wanted to happen. Well, you may call it guesswork - I call it having a keen sense of the mood in the country. Yes, I'll freely admit even I didn't see Trump possibly winning the entire Rust Belt (I only predicted PA), but it was pretty obvious - at least to me and a couple of other posters on here - that Trump would successfully mobilise non-college left-behind whites, people who probably hadn't bothered to vote since at least 1992, and that Clinton would fail to enthuse Democrat voters in the way Obama or Sanders did. Just because most pollsters and the MSM were too dumb to pick this up that doesn't mean it was impossible to do so. Well yes, actually I did think that Trump would successfully mobilise non-college whites, pretty much everyone did, but that is only part of the story. Without detailed studies of the exit polls and a county by county look at results it is hard to draw too many conclusions but at first glance there seems to be three major factors here. 1. Trump's very strong numbers with non-college whites which was largely expected. 2. Clinton's relatively poor performance with sections of the Democratic base. This wasn't a massive surprise but it wasn't too unreasonable to think that having Trump as an opponent would mitigate against it. 3. Trump doing better than expected among GOP voters who don't really like him, especially suburbanites. There was good reason to believe that he would badly under perform a typical republican in terms of both vote share and turn out in traditional GOP suburban strongholds but that didn't really happen, at least not to the degree that many expected. It is certainly possible that the strong senate campaigns and the efforts of the RNC were a big help to Trump here while in return he helped Senate candidates by bringing non-regular GOP voters out. My guess is that in the end the end a lot of GOP voters who didn't like Trump simply held their nose and voted for him.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 11:05:59 GMT
A revolt by the working class against identity politics. It's a second Brexit. Not at all difficult to understand, albeit the political and media class can't understand. That only shows their arrogance. Well done pjones for clearsightedness. Quite a few people around ...some on here...who need to recalibrate their political sensors I think you are transferring your European viewpoint to the US. There has always been a culture war and the Republicans the beneficiary. This is different. People in Pennsylvania who voted for Trump did so because they have no jobs and see the steel they used to make imported from China. Not people bothered about gay marriage or abortion. And they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs but their jobs being exported to other countries via globalisation. This really is about the economy - and those who feel they are simply not benefitting from what is going on. I think it is a combination. Yes the economy is the real driver but cultural issues add to a sense of alienation and differences between the Democratic Party and many of its former voters. There is clearly a sense among many the Democratic Party is no longer interested in people like them or has their best interests at heart. It is of note amidst the electoral carnage Jim Justice held the Governorship of West Virginia fairly easily for the Democrats even as Trump was winning there by 40 points.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 9, 2016 11:11:33 GMT
With the votes coming in from California it seems that Clinton will be ahead on the popular vote: underlining the fact that the electoral college system is broken. Very good point they predict she'll win the popular vote by 2 million votes. So verdict on last night. Devastating night for the Dems good news for the republicans. As much as it pains me to say it, I hope that Donald trump delivers on his promise to make America great again. At the end of the day his success will be his countries success. We should wish him good luck and pray he doesn't fuck shit up.
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Post by mrpastelito on Nov 9, 2016 11:25:18 GMT
As much as it pains me to say it, I hope that Donald trump delivers on his promise to make America great again. At the end of the day his success will be his countries success. We should wish him good luck and pray he doesn't fuck shit up. Indeed, although I doubt it ...
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 9, 2016 11:30:53 GMT
I think you are transferring your European viewpoint to the US. There has always been a culture war and the Republicans the beneficiary. This is different. People in Pennsylvania who voted for Trump did so because they have no jobs and see the steel they used to make imported from China. Not people bothered about gay marriage or abortion. And they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs but their jobs being exported to other countries via globalisation. This really is about the economy - and those who feel they are simply not benefitting from what is going on. I think it is a combination. Yes the economy is the real driver but cultural issues add to a sense of alienation and differences between the Democratic Party and many of its former voters. There is clearly a sense among many the Democratic Party is no longer interested in people like them or has their best interests at heart. It is of note amidst the electoral carnage Jim Justice held the Governorship of West Virginia fairly easily for the Democrats even as Trump was winning there by 40 points. I don't disagree but I think if Bernie Sanders had been the candidate he would have addressed many of those concerns. Hillary encapsulates them. She is an uncritical supporter of globalisation. I would have found it a struggle to vote for her. As I think did many Democrats on the left.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 11:34:55 GMT
More from my American cousin, Lisa -
Both parties played the short game truly uninterested in hearing the other side. Both parties went low. All this was known a year ago - that Clinton was the weakest from the Left and Trump from the right. The press amped up emotions and deafness. This became reality TV show.
For weeks rhetoric from the left (assuming that they were well ahead and this was in the bag) was how racists and sexists will have to see the greatness of HRC. Thing is during in all this heightened self congratulatory enlightenment they insulted a lot of people who aren't racist/sexist and voted holding their nose for Trump. People who would have gladly accepted an alternatives but the alternative was a candidate who rode out the bulk of post conventions laying low, letting fear swirl, thinking I'll win because Trump will lose.
I am GOP. I vote off party at times. I don't think Trump is the end of the world but felt that he was the second lamest from the selection a year ago. To steal my vote was easy. I didn't vote for Trump. I voted for Gary. Had it been Sanders/O'Malley I would've voted Democrat. Clinton lost my respect perpetuating the lie of Benghazi as an organic uprising from an unrelated internet video and further by cheating Sanders in the primary. I am not going to vote off party to give it to someone who cheats in elections because that is subverting the will of the people (the point of elections). Either you get what I'm saying or you don't.
Our vote is power. Our vote is our voice. If we want candidates who deserve our vote we need force them to earn it.
I really didn't mean to add another long diatribe. I went through all this back in July. Other than enjoying watching the news (especially CNN) eat crow - I am mostly unimpressed with this election since the first primary.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 9, 2016 12:05:55 GMT
A revolt by the working class against identity politics. It's a second Brexit. Not at all difficult to understand, albeit the political and media class can't understand. That only shows their arrogance. Well done pjones for clearsightedness. Quite a few people around ...some on here...who need to recalibrate their political sensors I think you are transferring your European viewpoint to the US. There has always been a culture war and the Republicans the beneficiary. This is different. People in Pennsylvania who voted for Trump did so because they have no jobs and see the steel they used to make imported from China. Not people bothered about gay marriage or abortion. And they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs but their jobs being exported to other countries via globalisation. This really is about the economy - and those who feel they are simply not benefitting from what is going on. I consider the base ethos to be exactly the same as the Brexit vote. Not Romanians competing/stealing our jobs because global capitalism has organized 'Free Movement' to cheapen the rate, but Mexicans/Chinese doing our jobs because global capitalism has exported our jobs/factories to a cheaper environment. It is the same few rich people supported by an uncaring Metropolitan elite shafting the workers on both sides of the pond with hardly a care, but agonizing over the foreign poor in Africa, grieving over saving the planet and shafting our fuel/heating prices, and carrying out pointless foreign military adventures to pretend to being the saviour of the world.............but actually just supporting the industrial/military complex to cement funds for the party and some votes in some seats. The gross and crippling corruption of the whole nexus has trickled down to even the most simple soul who can smell a two-faced member of the next-to-royalty top families lining her pocket and trading favours..................so give a charmless chancer telling some the truth a go if only to stuff preening overspending over-connected bitch and all her fellow trough-wallowing clique.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 9, 2016 12:12:17 GMT
With the benefit of hindsight, Pete Whitehead's comment on another thread seems to fit the bill for me- this last week, the Clinton camp seems to have given off a whiff of obsessing about certain groups. With no wider narrative.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 9, 2016 12:12:44 GMT
I think you are transferring your European viewpoint to the US. There has always been a culture war and the Republicans the beneficiary. This is different. People in Pennsylvania who voted for Trump did so because they have no jobs and see the steel they used to make imported from China. Not people bothered about gay marriage or abortion. And they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs but their jobs being exported to other countries via globalisation. This really is about the economy - and those who feel they are simply not benefitting from what is going on. I consider the base ethos to be exactly the same as the Brexit vote. Not Romanians competing/stealing our jobs because global capitalism has organized 'Free Movement' to cheapen the rate, but Mexicans/Chinese doing our jobs because global capitalism has exported our jobs/factories to a cheaper environment. It is the same few rich people supported by an uncaring Metropolitan elite shafting the workers on both sides of the pond with hardly a care, but agonizing over the foreign poor in Africa, grieving over saving the planet and shafting our fuel/heating prices, and carrying out pointless foreign military adventures to pretend to being the saviour of the world.............but actually just supporting the industrial/military complex to cement funds for the party and some votes in some seats. The gross and crippling corruption of the whole nexus has trickled down to even the most simple soul who can smell a two-faced member of the next-to-royalty top families lining her pocket and trading favours..................so give a charmless chancer telling someΒ the truth a go if only to stuff preening overspending over-connected bitch and all her fellow trough-wallowing clique. You do realise that a Corbynite socialist could have written that ππ
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 9, 2016 12:14:49 GMT
Elsewhere, various tossers appear to be on the rampage in Oakland.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 9, 2016 12:17:22 GMT
I consider the base ethos to be exactly the same as the Brexit vote. Not Romanians competing/stealing our jobs because global capitalism has organized 'Free Movement' to cheapen the rate, but Mexicans/Chinese doing our jobs because global capitalism has exported our jobs/factories to a cheaper environment. It is the same few rich people supported by an uncaring Metropolitan elite shafting the workers on both sides of the pond with hardly a care, but agonizing over the foreign poor in Africa, grieving over saving the planet and shafting our fuel/heating prices, and carrying out pointless foreign military adventures to pretend to being the saviour of the world.............but actually just supporting the industrial/military complex to cement funds for the party and some votes in some seats. The gross and crippling corruption of the whole nexus has trickled down to even the most simple soul who can smell a two-faced member of the next-to-royalty top families lining her pocket and trading favours..................so give a charmless chancer telling some the truth a go if only to stuff preening overspending over-connected bitch and all her fellow trough-wallowing clique. You do realise that a Corbynite socialust could have written that ππ Indeed I did Mike from about a third the way through. It probably rather reinforces the message.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,513
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 9, 2016 12:17:40 GMT
Well, so far the results are Trump 3855, Clinton 892. So, obviously it's in the bag and I can go to bed. I've just woken up. Is the world still here?
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Dan
Animal Welfare Party
Believes we need more localism in our politics
Posts: 813
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Post by Dan on Nov 9, 2016 12:18:36 GMT
May I be the first to congratulate @pjones on his near certainty in winning this forum's Poster of the Year 2016.
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Post by mrhell on Nov 9, 2016 12:20:29 GMT
Sorry I don't know if this has been posted before but the last time Virginia went Democrat and any of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin went Republican was 1948.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 12:21:01 GMT
I consider the base ethos to be exactly the same as the Brexit vote. Not Romanians competing/stealing our jobs because global capitalism has organized 'Free Movement' to cheapen the rate, but Mexicans/Chinese doing our jobs because global capitalism has exported our jobs/factories to a cheaper environment. It is the same few rich people supported by an uncaring Metropolitan elite shafting the workers on both sides of the pond with hardly a care, but agonizing over the foreign poor in Africa, grieving over saving the planet and shafting our fuel/heating prices, and carrying out pointless foreign military adventures to pretend to being the saviour of the world.............but actually just supporting the industrial/military complex to cement funds for the party and some votes in some seats. The gross and crippling corruption of the whole nexus has trickled down to even the most simple soul who can smell a two-faced member of the next-to-royalty top families lining her pocket and trading favours..................so give a charmless chancer telling some the truth a go if only to stuff preening overspending over-connected bitch and all her fellow trough-wallowing clique. You do realise that a Corbynite socialust could have written that ππ Corbynites and Kippers are feeding at the same, er, trough to some extent. Some of their diagnoses even overlap. That their respective portfolios of solutions are very different is undeniable, but I always give people credit for at least grasping that something is wrong.
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 9, 2016 12:21:19 GMT
Anyone know why Arizona has not been called yet? Trump seems to have a clear lead.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 9, 2016 12:22:40 GMT
Clinton is now in the lead in the national vote and will probably end up winning it by around half a million but be way behind in the electoral college votes . Well that's democracy ....... or is it ?
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Post by casualobserver on Nov 9, 2016 12:26:44 GMT
Clinton takes Minnesota by 46.8% of the vote to Trump's 45.4%. I think that it's now (just about) impossible for Clinton to take Michigan. It's just possible that there are enough Clinton votes undeclared in Ann Arbor to give MI to Clinton, although I doubt it. It will be very close, though!
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 9, 2016 12:27:57 GMT
You do realise that a Corbynite socialust could have written that ππ Corbynites and Kippers are feeding at the same, er, trough to some extent. Some of their diagnoses even overlap. That their respective portfolios of solutions are very different is undeniable, but I always give people credit for at least grasping that something is wrong. I am not sure whether Kippers are necessarily anti-globalisation though. Farage isn't: he doesn't have a critique of free trade or neoliberal economics. Jeremy Corbyn made a statement this morning which I largely agreed with acknowledging why Trump won and implying that Hillary simply didn't have the answers.
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