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Post by Merseymike on Nov 9, 2016 12:29:03 GMT
Clinton is now in the lead in the national vote and will probably end up winning it by around half a million but be way behind in the electoral college votes . Well that's democracy ....... or is it ? It's about as democratic as a parliamentary majority with 36% of the 62% who voted.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 9, 2016 12:31:01 GMT
Corbynites and Kippers are feeding at the same, er, trough to some extent. Some of their diagnoses even overlap. That their respective portfolios of solutions are very different is undeniable, but I always give people credit for at least grasping that something is wrong. I am not sure whether Kippers are necessarily anti-globalisation though. Farage isn't: he doesn't have a critique of free trade or neoliberal economics. Jeremy Corbyn made a statement this morning which I largely agreed with acknowledging why Trump won and implying that Hillary simply didn't have the answers. For your interest, I have also put up a thread in alternate political history asking what would have happened if Sanders won the democratic primary instead of Clinton. Given what has happened, it may well be the case that Sanders would have done better in addressing some of the globalisation concerns mentioned above in this thread.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 12:34:10 GMT
Corbynites and Kippers are feeding at the same, er, trough to some extent. Some of their diagnoses even overlap. That their respective portfolios of solutions are very different is undeniable, but I always give people credit for at least grasping that something is wrong. I am not sure whether Kippers are necessarily anti-globalisation though. Farage isn't: he doesn't have a critique of free trade or neoliberal economics. Jeremy Corbyn made a statement this morning which I largely agreed with acknowledging why Trump won and implying that Hillary simply didn't have the answers. Indeed, Kippers are not necessarily anti-globalisation, though there is an element of that with some. Many of their voters certainly have reservations about aspects of it. I shall see what Corbyn had to say before I disappear for the day.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 9, 2016 13:02:16 GMT
With regards to my views of the prospects on Trump's presidency to be:
In terms of foreign policy I think all those fears of nuking the world are well overblown hyperbole, and if he sticks to the non-interventionist stance he preached during the campaign (which would suit me just fine), then I don't think we're going to have to much of a problem here. I believe the area that we'll most likely see him fuck up royal in is the the domestic stage; if he can stick to his economic message and refrain from indulging the religious right in dabbling in social issues, then I think he might be in with a chance.
Finally, and I briefly touched upon this in the non-Presidential elections thread, come 2018 a Trump presidency may come with a hidden silver lining for some Senate Democrats*; currently the Democratic Party dominates the Class 1 senate seats, a Clinton win would've almost guaranteed that the Republicans will make plenty of pickups, but with Trump as president then I think the Democrats stand a greater chance of holding on for another six years in that category, they might even be in with a chance to pick up Nevada too...
* Particularly: Jon Tester (MT), Joe Donnelly (IN), Sherrod Brown (OH), Bob Casey Jr. (PA), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), and possibly Tammy Baldwin (WI), all of whom represent Trump states, and most if not all will likely be vulnerable come the 2018 midterms
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,482
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Post by Jack on Nov 9, 2016 13:10:30 GMT
Moral of the story: Never underestimate the power of stupid people.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 9, 2016 13:14:46 GMT
Moral of the story: Never underestimate the power of stupid people. Also, try to avoid letting those people know what you really think of them, as chances are that'll only serve to galvanise them further...
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 13:24:57 GMT
Deep, deep joy! The most amazing 2-years of politics in my fairly long life. I did not see this coming latterly under the burden of 'informed comment' from those knowing a lot about America, but I had earlier expressed the strong likelihood of it because of the trends that are now clearly obvious to everyone. Yes we might want to listen a little less to some of the self-appointed experts on here. I doubted Trump would win myself but the patronising, know-it-all attitude of some of our resident sages has made some of these threads tedious places to visit these last few months. The egg on some of their faces is another positive outcome of this result Well none of us on here are experts, self appointed or otherwise, and I have specifically rejected the term when anybody has applied it to me. Perhaps I have egg on my face but I would rather that than have hedged or give myself wriggle room when practically every poll pointed to Clinton winning.
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Post by observer on Nov 9, 2016 13:28:10 GMT
I recall lots of outright abuse directed at pjones. Anyone ready to apologise yet? Apologies are rarely necessary in debate but I feel rhe level of dismissiveness displayed in recent weeks has really overstepped the mark
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Nov 9, 2016 13:45:49 GMT
Excellent speech by Trump. Politically speaking (if we overlook the antics of the campaign for a moment) he's surely a much nicer man than Farage.
How exactly he's going to help the WWC remains to be seen. Protectionism doesn't usually end well. And they won't be very happy to discover that the Mexicans aren't going to build a wall and Clinton isn't going to jail.
I think the big battle will be abortion. Although a lot of Johnson/Stein supporters said they didn't care who was president, they will form part of a majority coalition against any change in abortion law, and this will be the issue that really gets people out onto the streets. The religious right will currently be offering thankful prayers for the soon-to-be-conservative Supreme Court but it's not that simple - thank god.
Internationally, if Trump does get on well with Putin that is probably a good thing. If Putin decides Trump is weak though, we could be in for trouble.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 9, 2016 13:50:21 GMT
Yes we might want to listen a little less to some of the self-appointed experts on here. I doubted Trump would win myself but the patronising, know-it-all attitude of some of our resident sages has made some of these threads tedious places to visit these last few months. The egg on some of their faces is another positive outcome of this result I agree, though in fairness our 'experts' were hardly alone in their misjudgement, and are joined by just about every mainstream pollster, commentator and pundit. Including myself among those who misjudged. And not for the first time. Thought there would be a hung parliament in UK - wrong Thought Remain would win - wrong Thought Clinton would be the next president of the US - wrong. Only on the third of these was I disappointed, but we'll see what happens. My facebook feed is going into a meltdown in the same way as when brexit happened. The problem is that all of these people only talk to those who agree with them and validate their own positions. Unlike these people, I can understand why it happened, even if I don't like it. And some on the left, like Merseymike, also do. In fact Michael Moore was also correct in predicting a Trump Presidency.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 13:59:45 GMT
I think the big battle will be abortion. Although a lot of Johnson/Stein supporters said they didn't care who was president, they will form part of a majority coalition against any change in abortion law, and this will be the issue that really gets people out onto the streets. The religious right will currently be offering thankful prayers for the soon-to-be-conservative Supreme Court but it's not that simple - thank god. This will only become a major issue if Ginsberg (83), Kennedy (80) or Breyer (78), Sotamayer (62) or Kagamn (56) die, or less likely retire. Chances are none of them will retire with Trump in office, although Kennedy just might but with 3 of them 78 or over and Ginsberg having had health problems. As long as those 5 are still there then Roe v Wade is not going to get overturned. Obviously Trump will get to replace Scalia while Thomas might well take the opportunity to retire. He is only 68 but has hinted that he doesn't want to stay on the court that much longer.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,829
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 9, 2016 14:01:48 GMT
Trump basically won in the way that the BJP does; the technical term is consolidation. And it is all about identity politics because that's all American politics is about. And the collapse of the white Democratic vote outside major metropolitan regions was not even particularly linked to class; a wholesale collapse across such things in those places actually.
Yesterday on was the 18th Brumaire.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 14:03:48 GMT
Is anyone else disgusted that Hilary couldn't even have the grace to face her crowd that waited for her all night. It shows the mark of the woman that she actually couldn't and still will not come out to speak to the nation let alone her supporters. All the worse because along with her supporters she quite rightly laid into Trump for saying that he might not accept the result if he lost.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,909
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 9, 2016 14:13:32 GMT
Do I think this result is legitimate? Yes.
Can I understand why it happened? Yes.
Do I think it is a terrible result for the US and the world? Yes.
It is the result of campaigning to people's most base instincts and relying on those same people to commit to mass cognitive dissonance and vote for a paragon of everything they hate. Trump will screw over the core of the people who voted for him, they will be poorer, more exploited and less safe. But Trump doesn't care, his campaign was all about power and nothing to do with achievable goals.
Mob rule, got to love it...
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Post by casualobserver on Nov 9, 2016 14:28:59 GMT
Do I think this result is legitimate? Yes. Can I understand why it happened? Yes. Do I think it is a terrible result for the US and the world? Yes. It is the result of campaigning to people's most base instincts and relying on those same people to commit to mass cognitive dissonance and vote for a paragon of everything they hate. Trump will screw over the core of the people who voted for him, they will be poorer, more exploited and less safe. But Trump doesn't care, his campaign was all about power and nothing to do with achievable goals. Mob rule, got to love it... So what you are saying is: If my lot wins, that's democracy. If your lot wins, that's mob rule.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,909
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 9, 2016 14:36:58 GMT
Do I think this result is legitimate? Yes. Can I understand why it happened? Yes. Do I think it is a terrible result for the US and the world? Yes. It is the result of campaigning to people's most base instincts and relying on those same people to commit to mass cognitive dissonance and vote for a paragon of everything they hate. Trump will screw over the core of the people who voted for him, they will be poorer, more exploited and less safe. But Trump doesn't care, his campaign was all about power and nothing to do with achievable goals. Mob rule, got to love it... So what you are saying is: If my lot wins, that's democracy. If your lot wins, that's mob rule. Please point out where in my post denies that Trump's win was democratic?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,909
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 9, 2016 15:02:46 GMT
So what you are saying is: If my lot wins, that's democracy. If your lot wins, that's mob rule. No, what he's saying is that people voted against their interests because they are too stupid to understand what their interests are. What they need is a good talking to, another stern lecture on the error of their ways. People in democracies make stupid decisions all the time, that is a reality. They vote for people and candidates all the time, from all parties, that go against their best interests. In this case, for reasons only those who voted for him can answer, a very large number of people who usually despise wealthy, entitled leeches like Trump voted for him. Anyone who has worked on election campaigns knows that people vote they way they do for a myriad of reasons, some of them very, very odd. Trump allowed the frustrations of many people to be projected onto his platform and his campaign quite brilliantly, and many people went with that rather than consider who the person actually is who is running the campaign. With every winning campaign this happens to an extent, in this circumstance the very people who put Trump there are the ones who he is going to most screw over (because he simply doesn't care).
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 15:12:22 GMT
Clinton wins the popular vote,oh well, instead of two losers we have two winners
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,909
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 9, 2016 15:17:18 GMT
Clinton wins the popular vote,oh well, instead of two losers we have two winners By at least as much as Gore did in 2000. No comfort at all of course but does go to show that it's a hollow victory.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,482
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Post by Jack on Nov 9, 2016 15:18:05 GMT
Clinton wins the popular vote,oh well, instead of two losers we have two winners Gets more votes. Loses.
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