carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 9, 2016 7:44:56 GMT
BBC - Hillary Clinton "has conceded" Deep, deep joy! The most amazing 2-years of politics in my fairly long life. I did not see this coming latterly under the burden of 'informed comment' from those knowing a lot about America, but I had earlier expressed the strong likelihood of it because of the trends that are now clearly obvious to everyone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 7:47:47 GMT
Let me say on behalf of @pjones -
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 7:48:08 GMT
Trump on stage now.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 9, 2016 7:51:05 GMT
To bed. She is defeated and I can sleep easier. But no picnic having Trump as president!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 8:00:28 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2016 8:01:45 GMT
Of course, this would be a terrible thing - it was yet another reason why he and everything he stood for should have lost. This was supposed to be the election where alt right ideology proved inferior to mainstream conservatism. Instead, it has done the opposite, and shown up what might previously have been explained away as a bunch of basement-dwelling, racist troglodytes as something far more serious. Yes, it's been wonderful hasn't it. This election has shown in the clearest way possible the utter impotence of 'mainstream conservatism' and the hollowed-out shell that is 'mainstream liberalism'. It is high time that they were put to rest, and considering everything that's happened, I doubt the burial will be dignified. At the risk of being a bad winner, I must confess that I'm looking forward to lots of anguished soul searching over the coming days/weeks/months from the vanquished. What is has actually showed is that we are under attack in the same way that we were under attack from communism. Partisan bickering must be put to one side while we deal with the far right threat; the anti-globalisation, illiberal, racist ideology will lead to a poorer and more miserable society than any mainstream Democrat or Republican policies. For too long, railing against the establishment in a vague manner has been popular, but some of the aspects that your side is railing against are core values of Western nations around the world, and those will win out eventually. Treating people like decent human beings, an egalitarian approach and social liberalism will overcome the far right just as they overcame Nazism and Communism. It will be a long, and probably a Cold, war, but the far right's victory today will serve as a wake-up call that will, if common sense prevails, unite politicians who aren't scumbags against the Trumpistas. Its popularity will die a slow death (and probably drive many nations into grinding poverty in the process) but I am confident that it will die, simply because it is a formula for social disaster. People will realise this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 8:05:02 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 9, 2016 8:13:30 GMT
Of course, this would be a terrible thing - it was yet another reason why he and everything he stood for should have lost. This was supposed to be the election where alt right ideology proved inferior to mainstream conservatism. Instead, it has done the opposite, and shown up what might previously have been explained away as a bunch of basement-dwelling, racist troglodytes as something far more serious. Yes, it's been wonderful hasn't it. This election has shown in the clearest way possible the utter impotence of 'mainstream conservatism' and the hollowed-out shell that is 'mainstream liberalism'. It is high time that they were put to rest, and considering everything that's happened, I doubt the burial will be dignified. At the risk of being a bad winner, I must confess that I'm looking forward to lots of anguished soul searching over the coming days/weeks/months from the vanquished. I wouldn't celebrate too much just yet if I was you. Trump isn't one of your kind and if it is in his interests to sell you out he will do it without a moments hesitation. You may well find that Trump is quite happy to just to enjoy the trappings of office and will largely let the GOP congress do whatever they want.
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Post by casualobserver on Nov 9, 2016 8:15:11 GMT
I'm just so so grateful that she hasn't won. I'm cautiously optimistic about Trump.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 9, 2016 8:17:42 GMT
Well, that happened!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 8:19:05 GMT
I would like to congratulate trump and fair play to pjones. Spot on throughout this election while Richard Allen was wrong.
Like others I was a lukewarm supporter of trump and in the year of change the establishment has been defeated again. I hope there are no attempts by sore losers to stop a trump presidency like we have seen with brexit.
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Post by casualobserver on Nov 9, 2016 8:25:07 GMT
There's plenty of time for the national poll numbers to change significantly in either direction before the election. However, if the race continues to tighten, then don't discount at least one of WI, PA and even MI coming into play before all of NH, VA and NM would go Trump. It's all too easy to assume that there's little regional variation in US presidential election swings, but in practice there are usually significant differences -some long term and some not. I'm more than aware of the way WI, PA and MI have voted Dem at every presidential election since 92 (since 88 for WI) but there's admittedly limited polling data showing these three states with a lower Clinton lead than may be expected given the recent national poll position. When I said "Unless Trump can make inroads into one or more of these states" I was talking about all 22 states that made up the 273 electoral votes. It has become increasingly obvious that the rust belt gives Trump a better chance than Virginia and some traditional swing states but I don't think that he will win WI, PA and MI. Yes things can change but the fundamentals of this race create hurdles that is nearly impossible to overcome. So, ultimately, WI, PA and MI did indeed create the vital ingredients for Trump's victory
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2016 8:33:36 GMT
BBC - Hillary Clinton "has conceded" Deep, deep joy! The most amazing 2-years of politics in my fairly long life. I did not see this coming latterly under the burden of 'informed comment' from those knowing a lot about America, but I had earlier expressed the strong likelihood of it because of the trends that are now clearly obvious to everyone. Yes we might want to listen a little less to some of the self-appointed experts on here. I doubted Trump would win myself but the patronising, know-it-all attitude of some of our resident sages has made some of these threads tedious places to visit these last few months. The egg on some of their faces is another positive outcome of this result
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 9, 2016 9:04:31 GMT
Maybe a slightly counterintuitive way of viewing the result of the election is like this: one candidate described 25% of the population as deplorable, the other didn't. The latter won the election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 9:07:33 GMT
Deep, deep joy! The most amazing 2-years of politics in my fairly long life. I did not see this coming latterly under the burden of 'informed comment' from those knowing a lot about America, but I had earlier expressed the strong likelihood of it because of the trends that are now clearly obvious to everyone. Yes we might want to listen a little less to some of the self-appointed experts on here. I doubted Trump would win myself but the patronising, know-it-all attitude of some of our resident sages has made some of these threads tedious places to visit these last few months. The egg on some of their faces is another positive outcome of this result Having been vociferously wrong myself from time to time, I am a bit more sympathetic. Although I intuitively felt from an early stage that Trump was in with a serious shot at the Republican nomination, I regarded it as more doubtful (though not impossible) that he could take the presidency. The data appeared to be on the side of the sceptics, but the data was wrong ā or at least the assumptions used to interpret it. I do think that some of the commentary we have seen on this forum went beyond what the data could support. There was a logical difference between Trumpās election being āimpossibleā, and being merely āunimaginable to right-thinking peopleā. The stampeding herd did not always keep that distinction in their minds. We have now had a series of really major political events which were not foreseen by informed commentators, and we need to remember that. Political forecasting has entered a period where caution and humility are indicated, as the previously impossible may prove to have become all too possible.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2016 9:08:07 GMT
Maybe a slightly counterintuitive way of viewing the result of the election is like this: one candidate described 25% of the population as deplorable, the other didn't. The latter won the election. He described whole swathes of the population of the USA as worse than deplorable. Somehow, many of these people still voted for him.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 9, 2016 9:13:28 GMT
Certainly amongst certain sections of the online "community", the petty recriminations have started, largely along the lines of "the DNC should've been more supportive of Bernie Sanders" and the likes...
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Post by Right Leaning on Nov 9, 2016 9:16:37 GMT
Yes we might want to listen a little less to some of the self-appointed experts on here. I doubted Trump would win myself but the patronising, know-it-all attitude of some of our resident sages has made some of these threads tedious places to visit these last few months. The egg on some of their faces is another positive outcome of this result Having been vociferously wrong myself from time to time, I am a bit more sympathetic. Although I intuitively felt from an early stage that Trump was in with a serious shot at the Republican nomination, I regarded it as more doubtful (though not impossible) that he could take the presidency. The data appeared to be on the side of the sceptics, but the data was wrong ā or at least the assumptions used to interpret it. I do think that some of the commentary we have seen on this forum went beyond what the data could support. There was a logical difference between Trumpās election being āimpossibleā, and being merely āunimaginable to right-thinking peopleā. The stampeding herd did not always keep that distinction in their minds. We have now had a series of really major political events which were not foreseen by informed commentators, and we need to remember that. Political forecasting has entered a period where caution and humility are indicated, as the previously impossible may prove to have become all too possible. I wonder how Teresa May feels about calling an early general election now?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 9:20:27 GMT
Maybe a slightly counterintuitive way of viewing the result of the election is like this: one candidate described 25% of the population as deplorable, the other didn't. The latter won the election. He described whole swathes of the population of the USA as worse than deplorable. Somehow, many of these people still voted for him. They voted against Clinton, If I was a US citizen I would not have voted for either,
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2016 9:25:44 GMT
Having been vociferously wrong myself from time to time, I am a bit more sympathetic. Although I intuitively felt from an early stage that Trump was in with a serious shot at the Republican nomination, I regarded it as more doubtful (though not impossible) that he could take the presidency. The data appeared to be on the side of the sceptics, but the data was wrong ā or at least the assumptions used to interpret it. I do think that some of the commentary we have seen on this forum went beyond what the data could support. There was a logical difference between Trumpās election being āimpossibleā, and being merely āunimaginable to right-thinking peopleā. The stampeding herd did not always keep that distinction in their minds. We have now had a series of really major political events which were not foreseen by informed commentators, and we need to remember that. Political forecasting has entered a period where caution and humility are indicated, as the previously impossible may prove to have become all too possible. I wonder how Teresa May feels about calling an early general election now? Trump's election represents one of the major changes to the political context about which I speculated a few days ago - vote-2012.proboards.com/post/433716 . Unless Theresa May gets her way over Article 50 very quickly, she will almost certainly call a general election and win it handsomely. That a fair wind is likely to be blowing from Washington will (in my view) render the "Brexit" negotiation process rather quicker and easier than would otherwise have been the case.
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