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Post by John Chanin on Aug 13, 2021 11:48:54 GMT
Wick & East Caithness: TILT, Jill (Liberal Democrat) - 657 FERNIE, Bill (Indepedent) - 622 CAMERON, Michael James (SNP) - 593 ROSS, Daniel (Conservative) - 523 CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian) - 16 Jill Tilt (Lib Dem) elected I’m surprised that the Ind didn’t win on those numbers. I’d like to see more information here on transfers for Scottish by-elections. The initial vote is not without interest, but it’s less than half the story. One assumes that the Independent here was very anti SNP. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2021 11:51:57 GMT
They seem to be getting reorganised up there. So they should, what with holding the Westminster seat. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 13, 2021 11:51:57 GMT
East Suffolk: Orwell & Villages - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 873 | 45.9% | +10.9% | +11.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 800 | 42.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 230 | 12.1% | -1.5% | -1.7% | | Independents |
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| -30.8% | -30.8% | | Green |
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| -20.6% | -20.8% | | Total votes | 1,903 |
| 56% | 57% |
Swing: not meaningful
Council now: 39 Conservative, 7 Labour, 5 Green, 3 Liberal Democrat
Highlands: Inverness West - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent on transfers
based on first preference votes| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | since 2012 ^ | since 2009 B | since 2007 ^ | | SNP | 718 | 33.7% | +4.4% |
| +3.8% | +11.6% | +4.9% | | Liberal Democrat | 678 | 31.8% | +4.2% |
| +7.1% | -27.8% | +6.7% | | Conservative | 293 | 13.7% | +1.8% |
| +9.9% | +9.3% | +6.9% | | Independent | 230 | 10.8% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 159 | 7.5% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independence for Scotland | 42 | 2.0% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Libertarian | 11 | 0.5% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Ross |
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| -20.6% |
| -23.5% |
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| | Labour |
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| -6.7% |
| -13.9% | -8.3% | -16.0% | | Independent Duffy |
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| -3.7% |
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| | Christian |
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| -2.3% | -4.6% |
| | TUSC |
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| -2.0% |
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| | Solidarity |
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| -1.1% |
| | Independent MacDonald |
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| -23.2% | | Total votes | 2,131 |
| 61% |
| 86% | 84% | 64% |
^ boundary changes Swing: if meaningful is small apart from when compared to 2009 by-election when Liberal Democrat to SNP is nearly 20% Council now: 25 Independent, 18 SNP, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Conservative, 4 Highlands Matters, 3 Labour, 2 other Independent, 1 non-aligned
Highlands: Wick & East Caithness - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent on transfersbased on first preference votes| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | Liberal Democrat | 657 | 27.3% | +23.6% | | Independent Fernie | 622 | 25.8% | +18.8% | | SNP | 593 | 24.6% | +12.9% | | Conservative | 523 | 21.7% | +7.8% | | Libertarian | 16 | 0.7% | from nowhere | | Independent Mackay |
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| -22.4% | | Independent Sinclair |
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| -20.7% | | Labour |
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| -8.6% | | Independent Malik |
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| -7.2% | | Independent Patterson |
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| -4.8% | | Total votes | 2,411 |
| 52% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 25 Independent, 18 SNP, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Conservative, 4 Highlands Matters, 3 Labour, 2 other Independent, 1 non-aligned North Ayrshire -Dalry & West Kilbride - Conservative gain from SNPbased on first preference votes| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | since 2012 ^ | since 2007 ^ | | Conservative | 2,016 | 53.5% | +31.3% |
| +43.7% | +32.2% | | SNP | 1,292 | 34.3% | +10.5% |
| +11.7% | +15.1% | | Labour | 305 | 8.1% | -0.3% |
| -7.9% | -12.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 58 | 1.5% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | -1.5% | | Socialist | 57 | 1.5% | from nowhere |
| -0.6% | -1.4% | | Independent Willis | 42 | 1.1% | +0.6% |
| +0.6% | from nowhere | | Independent Barr * |
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| -19.3% |
| -29.4% |
| | Independent Hall |
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| -11.7% |
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| | Independent McLardy |
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| -8.2% |
| -19.6% | -29.0% | | Independent Woodside |
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| -5.9% |
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| | Independent Park |
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| -3.8% | | Total votes | 3,770 |
| 74% |
| 87% | 67% |
^ boundary changes * elected as Conservative in 2007 Swing: if meaningful, SNP to Conservative 10½% since 2017, 16% since 2012 and 8½% since 20076 Council now: 11 Labour, 9 SNP, 8 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Alba South Lakeland: Grange - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 B2 votes | 2021 B2 share | since 2021 B1 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,336 | 66.2% | +6.0% | +8.5% | +21.8% | +20.2% | | Conservative | 541 | 26.8% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -11.9% | -13.6% | | Green | 85 | 4.2% | -2.7% | -4.3% | -5.7% | -1.9% | | Labour | 56 | 2.8% | -3.8% | -2.9% | -4.1% | -4.7% | | Total votes | 2,018 |
| 85% | 85% | 74% | 80% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2¾% since May, 5% since 2019 and 16¾% / 17% since 2018 Council now: 33 Liberal Democrat, 14 Conservatives, 3 Labour, 1 Green Tower Hamlets: Weavers - Aspire gain from Labour| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average | | Aspire ^ | 1,204 | 46.5% | +31.3% | +30.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 742 | 28.6% | -21.7% | -22.0% | -3.1% | -3.7% | | Conservative | 360 | 13.9% | +7.6% | +7.5% | +7.4% | +8.0% | | Green | 205 | 7.9% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -6.4% | -6.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 50 | 1.9% | -5.6% | -4.3% | -3.3% | -3.4% | | TUSC | 30 | 1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.7% | -1.8% | | People's Alliance |
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| -6.6% | -5.7% |
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| | Renew |
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| -4.4% | -4.7% |
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| | Tower Hamlets First |
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| -31.2% | -30.8% | | UKIP |
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| -8.1% | -8.3% | | Total votes | 2,591 |
| 74% | 80% | 67% | 68% |
^ former Labour Councillor elected in 2010 and highest place Tower Hamlets First candidate in 2014 Swing: Labour to Aspire 26½% / 26¼% since 2018 Council now: 40 Labour, 2 Aspire, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Member of Conservative Group
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2021 11:53:31 GMT
I did think of entering the prediction competition this week (didn't get round to it) but had decided that I would predict the Aspire win, to be contrarian as much as anything. He was the previous councillor for the ward, lost his seat by a whisker as an independent running against Labour. I've never been convinced that the electorate would care about him living with his parents in Redbridge, and I didn't think the corruption allegations stuck to him personally. Labour are generally off the boil at the moment, and seem vulnerable to a concerted campaign anywhere there is an obvious challenger, and Aspire was the only other real game in town. I'd hoped to be wrong.... I think we all had similar thoughts, but collectively thought that Labour would hang on somehow, because an Aspire win in the end was unthinkable. Because we are not contrarian. Maybe we need a contrarian to join us... After what happened in Batley and Spen why would an Aspire win be unthinkable? Labour have big problems with the Muslim vote at the moment |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 13, 2021 11:54:43 GMT
Two Lib Dem wins and a Tory win in Scotland - wonder how The National will report those?
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 13, 2021 11:55:54 GMT
I did think of entering the prediction competition this week (didn't get round to it) but had decided that I would predict the Aspire win, to be contrarian as much as anything. He was the previous councillor for the ward, lost his seat by a whisker as an independent running against Labour. I've never been convinced that the electorate would care about him living with his parents in Redbridge, and I didn't think the corruption allegations stuck to him personally. Labour are generally off the boil at the moment, and seem vulnerable to a concerted campaign anywhere there is an obvious challenger, and Aspire was the only other real game in town. I'd hoped to be wrong.... I think we all had similar thoughts, but collectively thought that Labour would hang on somehow, because an Aspire win in the end was unthinkable. Because we are not contrarian. Maybe we need a contrarian to join us... Apparently there were some local issues involved according to the East London Enquirer which is right of centre and dislikes both Labour and Aspire. Biggs has proved every bit as dreadful as expected, and unless he is deselected, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lutfur Rahman wins again. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 13, 2021 11:58:36 GMT
Two Lib Dem wins and a Tory win in Scotland - wonder whether how The National will report those? FTFY |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2021 11:59:42 GMT
I’m surprised that the Ind didn’t win on those numbers. I’d like to see more information here on transfers for Scottish by-elections. The initial vote is not without interest, but it’s less than half the story. One assumes that the Independent here was very anti SNP.
Here you are, Tories were well ahead of the SNP after transferring all the Independent votes last time. Whoever was the leading opponent of the SNP on first choices was going to win. So actually the initial vote was most of the story
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 13, 2021 11:59:45 GMT
They seem to be getting reorganised up there. So they should, what with holding the Westminster seat. The LibDems used to hold the entire Highlands bar the Western Isles. There is a genuine Liberal tradition. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 13, 2021 12:00:36 GMT
SOUTH LAKELAND Grange HANLON, Fiona Marguerite (Lib Dem) 1,336 CHAMBERS, Steve (Con) 541 LE MARE Robin (Green) 85 WRIGHT, Patricia (Lab) 56 Turnout 42.9% 42.9% Considered impressive these days. I ponder that we had a byelection in Crewe (the town centre ward) in February 1983 where we had a 40% turnout. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 13, 2021 12:08:23 GMT
So they should, what with holding the Westminster seat. The LibDems used to hold the entire Highlands bar the Western Isles. There is a genuine Liberal tradition. Not at council level - there have historically been a lot of Independents. But if we're building back, so much the better. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 13, 2021 12:08:23 GMT
Preferably a hoover to check if there's any brain in there?
You chaps are not up to effective sarcasm are you?
A Hoover for 'suction'? I don't think so! Do you?
And, Like we are in anyway interested in the difference or care at all !!
I'm increasingly of the view that carlton43 is a teenage girl pretending to be a crotchety old Tory.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 13, 2021 12:10:45 GMT
deleted
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 13, 2021 12:11:05 GMT
You chaps are not up to effective sarcasm are you?
A Hoover for 'suction'? I don't think so! Do you?
And, Like we are in anyway interested in the difference or care at all !!
I'm increasingly of the view that carlton43 is a teenage girl pretending to be a crotchety old Tory. That's funny, I thought he was a crotchety old Tory pretending to be a teenage girl. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Aug 13, 2021 12:12:26 GMT
Wick & East Caithness: TILT, Jill (Liberal Democrat) - 657 (27.3%) FERNIE, Bill (Indepedent) - 622 (25.8%) CAMERON, Michael James (SNP) - 593 (24.6%) ROSS, Daniel (Conservative) - 523 (21.7%) CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian) - 16 (0.7%) Jill Tilt (Lib Dem) elected It's what STV was designed for. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Aug 13, 2021 12:13:00 GMT
Two Lib Dem wins and a Tory win in Scotland - wonder how The National will report those? Alex Cole Hamilton shouted at cat. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2021 12:13:54 GMT
So they should, what with holding the Westminster seat. The LibDems used to hold the entire Highlands bar the Western Isles. There is a genuine Liberal tradition. Highland council area, but there are Highland seats further south we never held except perhaps long ago (eg. Perthshire in its various forms).
Correct re Liberal tradition though, and a lot of SNP voters up there used to vote Liberal
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 13, 2021 12:14:36 GMT
You chaps are not up to effective sarcasm are you?
A Hoover for 'suction'? I don't think so! Do you?
And, Like we are in anyway interested in the difference or care at all !!
I'm increasingly of the view that carlton43 is a teenage girl pretending to be a crotchety old Tory.
I hate you! I hate you!! I hate you!!
Talk to the hand cos its well good for it.
And As if Well just
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 13, 2021 12:18:28 GMT
I’d like to see more information here on transfers for Scottish by-elections. The initial vote is not without interest, but it’s less than half the story. One assumes that the Independent here was very anti SNP. Here you are, Tories were well ahead of the SNP after transferring all the Independent votes last time. Whoever was the leading opponent of the SNP on first choices was going to win. So actually the initial vote was most of the story
Except unless the SNp moved ahead of the indy on Tory transfers, it would have come down to LD vs Indy... I would expect the Con transfers to have increased the LD lead, but would have thought the SNP transfers might have reversed that. Final figures will be interesting... |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Aug 13, 2021 12:19:51 GMT
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