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Post by andrewp on Jul 16, 2021 12:54:19 GMT
In my area (Haslemerem SW Surrey) we had minimal activity prior to the 2017 county election, and hit something like 25% share. We did do significantly more leafleting and some door knocking for the 2019 LE - and went from zero councillors to 4 on Waverley and 7 on Haslemere TC. Following sustained activity since, in this years county election we doubled our share to 50%, winning the seat for the first time in almost 50 years. (Admittedly, there were also some other factors too, but the lesson is clear.) That's why we are already working steadily towards our next election nearly two years away. Social media alone won't do it, sporadic leaflets won't do it. Sustained activity on multiple fronts, will. I think that's definitely true for the LibDems and smaller parties or independents. Though a national swing can see some odd things happening. A Labour councillor I know in Liverpool stood for what had been a LibDem ward for years and years. She was quite literally a paper candidate and didn't even deliver a leaflet. But it was the Coalition years and she won the seat. There are many examples of that. In 2009 I know of someone who stood as a Conservative candidate in a safe Labour area of Bridgwater. He was persuaded to do it on the basis that he wouldn’t win, didn’t put a leaflet out, and then beat a very complacent Labour councillor. He then spent the weekend after the election speaking to Conservatives, realised he didn’t like them very much and then defected to the Lib Dem’s on the Tuesday. On the wider point on this thread, one party councils can be well run or badly run. Not enough people in Manchester or Eastleigh seem to object to one party state councils. It may be that the decade of a one party state in Sandwell is a factor in elections there at the moment, but obviously the Conservatives are also more competitive in Sandwell now generally than they have been for some time. More generally I think in most local by elections at the moment we are usually seeing a swing against the party that runs the council. A long period of local government cuts probably means that virtually no council is ‘popular’ at the moment. They are either unpopular, or in a best case scenario, people are indifferent to them. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 16, 2021 13:01:32 GMT
Actually the Chesham and Amersham result seemed to have a sense of 'its always been blue round here, time to give them a kicking'
My friend in Prestwood was more than amused to find that he had finally voted for a winning candidate after voting LibDem to my knowledge at every election!
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Post by rcronald on Jul 16, 2021 13:14:35 GMT
and they were even worse for Labour if I remember correctly. Not really no. Pro-Labour swing in Billesley, almost neutral in Hall Green North, small pro-Tory swing in Quinton which is a traditional marginal and a big swing to the Tories in Oscott - which in a way comes from the loss of a long-serving and excellent councillor and the attempted replacement by someone no-one in Oscott had heard of. Oscott probably does have the most "Sandwell" demographics of any of them, but its not a common demographic in the Second City. The Billesley result was poor for the Tories to say the least. The Tories should be looking at somewhere between 8-14 gains next time, but they also have some seats to defend as well. However, Birmingham will almost certainly stay Labour. I probably should have looked at the other by elections as I only remembered Oscott as it was the only gain and was not aware that the pattern in the other by elections was completely different  |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 16, 2021 13:53:20 GMT
Correct. A single election leaflet that comes out of nowhere, so to speak, rarely makes any impact. Why would it? In my area (Haslemerem SW Surrey) we had minimal activity prior to the 2017 county election, and hit something like 25% share. We did do significantly more leafleting and some door knocking for the 2019 LE - and went from zero councillors to 4 on Waverley and 7 on Haslemere TC. Following sustained activity since, in this years county election we doubled our share to 50%, winning the seat for the first time in almost 50 years. (Admittedly, there were also some other factors too, but the lesson is clear.) That's why we are already working steadily towards our next election nearly two years away. Social media alone won't do it, sporadic leaflets won't do it. Sustained activity on multiple fronts, will. You also had the biggest following wind in 2019 we have had since 2010, especially in Remainy Surrey. Not very comparable with West Bromwich where as we see the "no effort" vote is <2%, not 25%. Sustained effort is needed to win any seat, but the results in 2019 owed a lot to the Tory vote being in mid plummet |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2021 14:15:04 GMT
That is a cracking result in our new defined forward demographic. If I had been in the competition I would been wary of going further than a very narrow hold. This is another sign of possible very good structural change news.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 16, 2021 14:26:29 GMT
Turnout btw was 20.1% which is down 7% from May.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 16, 2021 16:27:57 GMT
That is a cracking result in our new defined forward demographic. If I had been in the competition I would been wary of going further than a very narrow hold. This is another sign of possible very good structural change news. When a Lib Dem won in Sunderland I am sure you said "local candidate, localist campaign, unpopular Labour Council" What the Tories need to make sure of holding the constituency long term is to avoid taking control of the council! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 16, 2021 16:35:23 GMT
That is a cracking result in our new defined forward demographic. If I had been in the competition I would been wary of going further than a very narrow hold. This is another sign of possible very good structural change news. When a Lib Dem won in Sunderland I am sure you said "local candidate, localist campaign, unpopular Labour Council" What the Tories need to make sure of holding the constituency long term is to avoid taking control of the council! You are probably right? And we have usually found that easy to achieve! |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 16, 2021 18:09:41 GMT
Britain Elects tagged me into their results tweet today, so I've had all the replies. Ye Gods.
This one made me laugh, mind:
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 17, 2021 19:21:20 GMT
Anti-social behaviour is an area that the council is at least somewhat involved with. Or at least some of the more dysfunctional ones. |
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